In this paper, we are interested in nonparametric kernel estimation of a generalized regression function, including conditional cumulative distribution and conditional quantile functions, based on an incomplete sample $(X_t, Y_t, \zeta_t)_{t\in \mathbb{ R}^+}$ copies of a continuous-time stationary ergodic process $(X, Y, \zeta)$. The predictor $X$ is valued in some infinite-dimensional space, whereas the real-valued process $Y$ is observed when $\zeta= 1$ and missing whenever $\zeta = 0$. Pointwise and uniform consistency (with rates) of these estimators as well as a central limit theorem are established. Conditional bias and asymptotic quadratic error are also provided. Asymptotic and bootstrap-based confidence intervals for the generalized regression function are also discussed. A first simulation study is performed to compare the discrete-time to the continuous-time estimations. A second simulation is also conducted to discuss the selection of the optimal sampling mesh in the continuous-time case. Finally, it is worth noting that our results are stated under ergodic assumption without assuming any classical mixing conditions.
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Consider the sequential optimization of a continuous, possibly non-convex, and expensive to evaluate objective function $f$. The problem can be cast as a Gaussian Process (GP) bandit where $f$ lives in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The state of the art analysis of several learning algorithms shows a significant gap between the lower and upper bounds on the simple regret performance. When $N$ is the number of exploration trials and $\gamma_N$ is the maximal information gain, we prove an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\gamma_N/N})$ bound on the simple regret performance of a pure exploration algorithm that is significantly tighter than the existing bounds. We show that this bound is order optimal up to logarithmic factors for the cases where a lower bound on regret is known. To establish these results, we prove novel and sharp confidence intervals for GP models applicable to RKHS elements which may be of broader interest.
In this study, we generalize a problem of sampling a scalar Gauss Markov Process, namely, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, where the samples are sent to a remote estimator and the estimator makes a causal estimate of the observed realtime signal. In recent years, the problem is solved for stable OU processes. We present solutions for the optimal sampling policy that exhibits a smaller estimation error for both stable and unstable cases of the OU process along with a special case when the OU process turns to a Wiener process. The obtained optimal sampling policy is a threshold policy. However, the thresholds are different for all three cases. Later, we consider additional noise with the sample when the sampling decision is made beforehand. The estimator utilizes noisy samples to make an estimate of the current signal value. The mean-square error (mse) is changed from previous due to noise and the additional term in the mse is solved which provides performance upper bound and room for a pursuing further investigation on this problem to find an optimal sampling strategy that minimizes the estimation error when the observed samples are noisy. Numerical results show performance degradation caused by the additive noise.
Extropy and its properties are explored to quantify the uncertainty. In this paper, we obtain alternative expressions for cumulative residual extropy and negative cumulative extropy. We obtain simple estimators of cumulative (residual) extropy. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are studied. We also present new estimators of cumulative (residual) extropy when the data is right censored. The finite sample performance of the estimators is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation studies. We use the proposed estimators to analyse different real data sets. Finally, we obtain the relationship between different dynamic and weighted extropy measures and reliability concepts, which leads to several open problems associated with these measures.
A new class of copulas, termed the MGL copula class, is introduced. The new copula originates from extracting the dependence function of the multivariate generalized log-Moyal-gamma distribution whose marginals follow the univariate generalized log-Moyal-gamma (GLMGA) distribution as introduced in \citet{li2019jan}. The MGL copula can capture nonelliptical, exchangeable, and asymmetric dependencies among marginal coordinates and provides a simple formulation for regression applications. We discuss the probabilistic characteristics of MGL copula and obtain the corresponding extreme-value copula, named the MGL-EV copula. While the survival MGL copula can be also regarded as a special case of the MGB2 copula from \citet{yang2011generalized}, we show that the proposed model is effective in regression modelling of dependence structures. Next to a simulation study, we propose two applications illustrating the usefulness of the proposed model. This method is also implemented in a user-friendly R package: \texttt{rMGLReg}.
This paper studies a distributed multi-agent convex optimization problem. The system comprises multiple agents in this problem, each with a set of local data points and an associated local cost function. The agents are connected to a server, and there is no inter-agent communication. The agents' goal is to learn a parameter vector that optimizes the aggregate of their local costs without revealing their local data points. In principle, the agents can solve this problem by collaborating with the server using the traditional distributed gradient-descent method. However, when the aggregate cost is ill-conditioned, the gradient-descent method (i) requires a large number of iterations to converge, and (ii) is highly unstable against process noise. We propose an iterative pre-conditioning technique to mitigate the deleterious effects of the cost function's conditioning on the convergence rate of distributed gradient-descent. Unlike the conventional pre-conditioning techniques, the pre-conditioner matrix in our proposed technique updates iteratively to facilitate implementation on the distributed network. In the distributed setting, we provably show that the proposed algorithm converges linearly with an improved rate of convergence than the traditional and adaptive gradient-descent methods. Additionally, for the special case when the minimizer of the aggregate cost is unique, our algorithm converges superlinearly. We demonstrate our algorithm's superior performance compared to prominent distributed algorithms for solving real logistic regression problems and emulating neural network training via a noisy quadratic model, thereby signifying the proposed algorithm's efficiency for distributively solving non-convex optimization. Moreover, we empirically show that the proposed algorithm results in faster training without compromising the generalization performance.
We consider the problem of estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices of $K$-populations or classes in the setting where the samples sizes are comparable to the data dimension. We propose estimating each class covariance matrix as a distinct linear combination of all class sample covariance matrices. This approach is shown to reduce the estimation error when the sample sizes are limited, and the true class covariance matrices share a somewhat similar structure. We develop an effective method for estimating the coefficients in the linear combination that minimize the mean squared error under the general assumption that the samples are drawn from (unspecified) elliptically symmetric distributions possessing finite fourth-order moments. To this end, we utilize the spatial sign covariance matrix, which we show (under rather general conditions) to be an unbiased estimator of the normalized covariance matrix as the dimension grows to infinity. We also show how the proposed method can be used in choosing the regularization parameters for multiple target matrices in a single class covariance matrix estimation problem. We assess the proposed method via numerical simulation studies including an application in global minimum variance portfolio optimization using real stock data.
We propose three novel solvers for estimating the relative pose of a multi-camera system from affine correspondences (ACs). A new constraint is derived interpreting the relationship of ACs and the generalized camera model. Using the constraint, we demonstrate efficient solvers for two types of motions assumed. Considering that the cameras undergo planar motion, we propose a minimal solution using a single AC and a solver with two ACs to overcome the degenerate case. Also, we propose a minimal solution using two ACs with known vertical direction, e.g., from an IMU. Since the proposed methods require significantly fewer correspondences than state-of-the-art algorithms, they can be efficiently used within RANSAC for outlier removal and initial motion estimation. The solvers are tested both on synthetic data and on real-world scenes from the KITTI odometry benchmark. It is shown that the accuracy of the estimated poses is superior to the state-of-the-art techniques.
Gaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions of such processes is developed. Our empirical Bayes approach is data-driven, numerically efficient and allows for the construction of confidence sets for the mean function. Performance is demonstrated in simulations and real data analysis. The method is implemented in the R package eBsc that accompanies the paper.
In the context of a binary treatment, matching is a well-established approach in causal inference. However, in the context of a continuous treatment or exposure, matching is still underdeveloped. We propose an innovative matching approach to estimate an average causal exposure-response function under the setting of continuous exposures that relies on the generalized propensity score (GPS). Our approach maintains the following attractive features of matching: a) clear separation between the design and the analysis; b) robustness to model misspecification or to the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS; c) straightforward assessment of covariate balance. We first introduce an assumption of identifiability, called local weak unconfoundedness. Under this assumption and mild smoothness conditions, we provide theoretical guarantees that our proposed matching estimator attains point-wise consistency and asymptotic normality. In simulations, our proposed matching approach outperforms existing methods under settings of model misspecification or the presence of extreme values of the estimated GPS. We apply our proposed method to estimate the average causal exposure-response function between long-term PM$_{2.5}$ exposure and all-cause mortality among 68.5 million Medicare enrollees, 2000-2016. We found strong evidence of a harmful effect of long-term PM$_{2.5}$ exposure on mortality. Code for the proposed matching approach is provided in the CausalGPS R package, which is available on CRAN and provides a computationally efficient implementation.
Molecular graph generation is a fundamental problem for drug discovery and has been attracting growing attention. The problem is challenging since it requires not only generating chemically valid molecular structures but also optimizing their chemical properties in the meantime. Inspired by the recent progress in deep generative models, in this paper we propose a flow-based autoregressive model for graph generation called GraphAF. GraphAF combines the advantages of both autoregressive and flow-based approaches and enjoys: (1) high model flexibility for data density estimation; (2) efficient parallel computation for training; (3) an iterative sampling process, which allows leveraging chemical domain knowledge for valency checking. Experimental results show that GraphAF is able to generate 68% chemically valid molecules even without chemical knowledge rules and 100% valid molecules with chemical rules. The training process of GraphAF is two times faster than the existing state-of-the-art approach GCPN. After fine-tuning the model for goal-directed property optimization with reinforcement learning, GraphAF achieves state-of-the-art performance on both chemical property optimization and constrained property optimization.
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