The design and operation of modern energy systems are heavily influenced by time-dependent and uncertain parameters, e.g., renewable electricity generation, load-demand, and electricity prices. These are typically represented by a set of discrete realizations known as scenarios. A popular scenario generation approach uses deep generative models (DGM) that allow scenario generation without prior assumptions about the data distribution. However, the validation of generated scenarios is difficult, and a comprehensive discussion about appropriate validation methods is currently lacking. To start this discussion, we provide a critical assessment of the currently used validation methods in the energy scenario generation literature. In particular, we assess validation methods based on probability density, auto-correlation, and power spectral density. Furthermore, we propose using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) as an additional validation method for non-trivial features like peaks, bursts, and plateaus. As representative examples, we train generative adversarial networks (GANs), Wasserstein GANs (WGANs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs) on two renewable power generation time series (photovoltaic and wind from Germany in 2013 to 2015) and an intra-day electricity price time series form the European Energy Exchange in 2017 to 2019. We apply the four validation methods to both the historical and the generated data and discuss the interpretation of validation results as well as common mistakes, pitfalls, and limitations of the validation methods. Our assessment shows that no single method sufficiently characterizes a scenario but ideally validation should include multiple methods and be interpreted carefully in the context of scenarios over short time periods.
Inspired by [4] we present a new algorithm for uniformly random generation of ordered trees in which all occuring outdegrees can be specified by a given sequence of numbers. The method can be used for random generation of binary or n-ary trees, or ones with various arities. We show that the algorithm is correct and has $O(n)$ time complexity for $n$ being the desired number of nodes in the resulting tree. In the discussion part we show how some selected formulas can be derived with the use of ideas developed in the proof of correctness of the algorithm.
Controllable generation is one of the key requirements for successful adoption of deep generative models in real-world applications, but it still remains as a great challenge. In particular, the compositional ability to generate novel concept combinations is out of reach for most current models. In this work, we use energy-based models (EBMs) to handle compositional generation over a set of attributes. To make them scalable to high-resolution image generation, we introduce an EBM in the latent space of a pre-trained generative model such as StyleGAN. We propose a novel EBM formulation representing the joint distribution of data and attributes together, and we show how sampling from it is formulated as solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). Given a pre-trained generator, all we need for controllable generation is to train an attribute classifier. Sampling with ODEs is done efficiently in the latent space and is robust to hyperparameters. Thus, our method is simple, fast to train, and efficient to sample. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art in both conditional sampling and sequential editing. In compositional generation, our method excels at zero-shot generation of unseen attribute combinations. Also, by composing energy functions with logical operators, this work is the first to achieve such compositionality in generating photo-realistic images of resolution 1024x1024.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
Deep generative modelling is a class of techniques that train deep neural networks to model the distribution of training samples. Research has fragmented into various interconnected approaches, each of which making trade-offs including run-time, diversity, and architectural restrictions. In particular, this compendium covers energy-based models, variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, autoregressive models, normalizing flows, in addition to numerous hybrid approaches. These techniques are drawn under a single cohesive framework, comparing and contrasting to explain the premises behind each, while reviewing current state-of-the-art advances and implementations.
This paper seeks to develop a deeper understanding of the fundamental properties of neural text generations models. The study of artifacts that emerge in machine generated text as a result of modeling choices is a nascent research area. Previously, the extent and degree to which these artifacts surface in generated text has not been well studied. In the spirit of better understanding generative text models and their artifacts, we propose the new task of distinguishing which of several variants of a given model generated a piece of text, and we conduct an extensive suite of diagnostic tests to observe whether modeling choices (e.g., sampling methods, top-$k$ probabilities, model architectures, etc.) leave detectable artifacts in the text they generate. Our key finding, which is backed by a rigorous set of experiments, is that such artifacts are present and that different modeling choices can be inferred by observing the generated text alone. This suggests that neural text generators may be more sensitive to various modeling choices than previously thought.
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theory (EVT) to capture theses effects and in particular the tail behavior of load spikes. Deep LSTM architectures with ReLU and $\tanh$ activation functions can model trends and temporal dependencies while EVT captures highly volatile load spikes above a pre-specified threshold. To illustrate our methodology, we use hourly price and demand data from 4719 nodes of the PJM interconnection, and we construct a deep predictor. We show that DL-EVT outperforms traditional Fourier time series methods, both in-and out-of-sample, by capturing the observed nonlinearities in prices. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
In this paper we study the convergence of generative adversarial networks (GANs) from the perspective of the informativeness of the gradient of the optimal discriminative function. We show that GANs without restriction on the discriminative function space commonly suffer from the problem that the gradient produced by the discriminator is uninformative to guide the generator. By contrast, Wasserstein GAN (WGAN), where the discriminative function is restricted to $1$-Lipschitz, does not suffer from such a gradient uninformativeness problem. We further show in the paper that the model with a compact dual form of Wasserstein distance, where the Lipschitz condition is relaxed, also suffers from this issue. This implies the importance of Lipschitz condition and motivates us to study the general formulation of GANs with Lipschitz constraint, which leads to a new family of GANs that we call Lipschitz GANs (LGANs). We show that LGANs guarantee the existence and uniqueness of the optimal discriminative function as well as the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium. We prove that LGANs are generally capable of eliminating the gradient uninformativeness problem. According to our empirical analysis, LGANs are more stable and generate consistently higher quality samples compared with WGAN.
We advocate the use of implicit fields for learning generative models of shapes and introduce an implicit field decoder for shape generation, aimed at improving the visual quality of the generated shapes. An implicit field assigns a value to each point in 3D space, so that a shape can be extracted as an iso-surface. Our implicit field decoder is trained to perform this assignment by means of a binary classifier. Specifically, it takes a point coordinate, along with a feature vector encoding a shape, and outputs a value which indicates whether the point is outside the shape or not. By replacing conventional decoders by our decoder for representation learning and generative modeling of shapes, we demonstrate superior results for tasks such as shape autoencoding, generation, interpolation, and single-view 3D reconstruction, particularly in terms of visual quality.
Generic object detection, aiming at locating object instances from a large number of predefined categories in natural images, is one of the most fundamental and challenging problems in computer vision. Deep learning techniques have emerged in recent years as powerful methods for learning feature representations directly from data, and have led to remarkable breakthroughs in the field of generic object detection. Given this time of rapid evolution, the goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the recent achievements in this field brought by deep learning techniques. More than 250 key contributions are included in this survey, covering many aspects of generic object detection research: leading detection frameworks and fundamental subproblems including object feature representation, object proposal generation, context information modeling and training strategies; evaluation issues, specifically benchmark datasets, evaluation metrics, and state of the art performance. We finish by identifying promising directions for future research.
Class labels have been empirically shown useful in improving the sample quality of generative adversarial nets (GANs). In this paper, we mathematically study the properties of the current variants of GANs that make use of class label information. With class aware gradient and cross-entropy decomposition, we reveal how class labels and associated losses influence GAN's training. Based on that, we propose Activation Maximization Generative Adversarial Networks (AM-GAN) as an advanced solution. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted to validate our analysis and evaluate the effectiveness of our solution, where AM-GAN outperforms other strong baselines and achieves state-of-the-art Inception Score (8.91) on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that, with the Inception ImageNet classifier, Inception Score mainly tracks the diversity of the generator, and there is, however, no reliable evidence that it can reflect the true sample quality. We thus propose a new metric, called AM Score, to provide more accurate estimation on the sample quality. Our proposed model also outperforms the baseline methods in the new metric.