Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.
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Separating signals from an additive mixture may be an unnecessarily hard problem when one is only interested in specific properties of a given signal. In this work, we tackle simpler "statistical component separation" problems that focus on recovering a predefined set of statistical descriptors of a target signal from a noisy mixture. Assuming access to samples of the noise process, we investigate a method devised to match the statistics of the solution candidate corrupted by noise samples with those of the observed mixture. We first analyze the behavior of this method using simple examples with analytically tractable calculations. Then, we apply it in an image denoising context employing 1) wavelet-based descriptors, 2) ConvNet-based descriptors on astrophysics and ImageNet data. In the case of 1), we show that our method better recovers the descriptors of the target data than a standard denoising method in most situations. Additionally, despite not constructed for this purpose, it performs surprisingly well in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio on full signal reconstruction. In comparison, representation 2) appears less suitable for image denoising. Finally, we extend this method by introducing a diffusive stepwise algorithm which gives a new perspective to the initial method and leads to promising results for image denoising under specific circumstances.
Accurate time series forecasting is a fundamental challenge in data science. It is often affected by external covariates such as weather or human intervention, which in many applications, may be predicted with reasonable accuracy. We refer to them as predicted future covariates. However, existing methods that attempt to predict time series in an iterative manner with autoregressive models end up with exponential error accumulations. Other strategies hat consider the past and future in the encoder and decoder respectively limit themselves by dealing with the historical and future data separately. To address these limitations, a novel feature representation strategy -- shifting -- is proposed to fuse the past data and future covariates such that their interactions can be considered. To extract complex dynamics in time series, we develop a parallel deep learning framework composed of RNN and CNN, both of which are used hierarchically. We also utilize the skip connection technique to improve the model's performance. Extensive experiments on three datasets reveal the effectiveness of our method. Finally, we demonstrate the model interpretability using the Grad-CAM algorithm.
Vehicle performance metrics analyze data sets consisting of subject vehicle's interactions with other road users in a nominal driving environment and provide certain performance measures as outputs. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the vehicle safety performance metrics research dates back to at least 1967. To date, there still does not exist a community-wide accepted metric or a set of metrics for vehicle safety performance assessment and justification. This issue gets further amplified with the evolving interest in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and Automated Driving Systems. In this paper, the authors seek to perform a unified study that facilitates an improved community-wide understanding of vehicle performance metrics using the lead-vehicle interaction operational design domain as a common means of performance comparison. In particular, the authors study the diversity (including constructive formulation discrepancies and empirical performance differences) among 33 base metrics with up to 51 metric variants (with different choices of hyper-parameters) in the existing literature, published between 1967 and 2022. Two data sets are adopted for the empirical performance diversity analysis, including vehicle trajectories from normal highway driving environment and relatively high-risk incidents with collisions and near-miss cases. The analysis further implies that (i) the conceptual acceptance of a safety metric proposal can be problematic if the assumptions, conditions, and types of outcome assurance are not justified properly, and (ii) the empirical performance justification of an acceptable metric can also be problematic as a dominant consensus is not observed among metrics empirically.
Heterogeneous trajectory forecasting is critical for intelligent transportation systems, but it is challenging because of the difficulty of modeling the complex interaction relations among the heterogeneous road agents as well as their agent-environment constraints. In this work, we propose a risk and scene graph learning method for trajectory forecasting of heterogeneous road agents, which consists of a Heterogeneous Risk Graph (HRG) and a Hierarchical Scene Graph (HSG) from the aspects of agent category and their movable semantic regions. HRG groups each kind of road agent and calculates their interaction adjacency matrix based on an effective collision risk metric. HSG of the driving scene is modeled by inferring the relationship between road agents and road semantic layout aligned by the road scene grammar. Based on this formulation, we can obtain effective trajectory forecasting in driving situations, and superior performance to other state-of-the-art approaches is demonstrated by exhaustive experiments on the nuScenes, ApolloScape, and Argoverse datasets.
Since 2015 video dimensionality has expanded to higher spatial and temporal resolutions and a wider colour gamut. This High Dynamic Range (HDR) content has gained traction in the consumer space as it delivers an enhanced quality of experience. At the same time, the complexity of codecs is growing. This has driven the development of tools for content-adaptive optimisation that achieve optimal rate-distortion performance for HDR video at 4K resolution. While improvements of just a few percentage points in BD-Rate (1-5\%) are significant for the streaming media industry, the impact on subjective quality has been less studied especially for HDR/AV1. In this paper, we conduct a subjective quality assessment (42 subjects) of 4K HDR content with a per-clip optimisation strategy. We correlate these subjective scores with existing popular objective metrics used in standard development and show that some perceptual metrics correlate surprisingly well even though they are not tuned for HDR. We find that the DSQCS protocol is too insensitive to categorically compare the methods but the data allows us to make recommendations about the use of experts vs non-experts in HDR studies, and explain the subjective impact of film grain in HDR content under compression.
Trajectory optimization methods have achieved an exceptional level of performance on real-world robots in recent years. These methods heavily rely on accurate analytical models of the dynamics, yet some aspects of the physical world can only be captured to a limited extent. An alternative approach is to leverage machine learning techniques to learn a differentiable dynamics model of the system from data. In this work, we use trajectory optimization and model learning for performing highly dynamic and complex tasks with robotic systems in absence of accurate analytical models of the dynamics. We show that a neural network can model highly nonlinear behaviors accurately for large time horizons, from data collected in only 25 minutes of interactions on two distinct robots: (i) the Boston Dynamics Spot and an (ii) RC car. Furthermore, we use the gradients of the neural network to perform gradient-based trajectory optimization. In our hardware experiments, we demonstrate that our learned model can represent complex dynamics for both the Spot and Radio-controlled (RC) car, and gives good performance in combination with trajectory optimization methods.
Despite the fact that adversarial training has become the de facto method for improving the robustness of deep neural networks, it is well-known that vanilla adversarial training suffers from daunting robust overfitting, resulting in unsatisfactory robust generalization. A number of approaches have been proposed to address these drawbacks such as extra regularization, adversarial weights perturbation, and training with more data over the last few years. However, the robust generalization improvement is yet far from satisfactory. In this paper, we approach this challenge with a brand new perspective -- refining historical optimization trajectories. We propose a new method named \textbf{Weighted Optimization Trajectories (WOT)} that leverages the optimization trajectories of adversarial training in time. We have conducted extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of WOT under various state-of-the-art adversarial attacks. Our results show that WOT integrates seamlessly with the existing adversarial training methods and consistently overcomes the robust overfitting issue, resulting in better adversarial robustness. For example, WOT boosts the robust accuracy of AT-PGD under AA-$L_{\infty}$ attack by 1.53\% $\sim$ 6.11\% and meanwhile increases the clean accuracy by 0.55\%$\sim$5.47\% across SVHN, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet datasets.
Genotype-to-phenotype mappings translate genotypic variations such as mutations into phenotypic changes. Neutrality is the observation that some mutations do not lead to phenotypic changes. Studying the search trajectories in genotypic and phenotypic spaces, especially through neutral mutations, helps us to better understand the progression of evolution and its algorithmic behaviour. In this study, we visualise the search trajectories of a genetic programming system as graph-based models, where nodes are genotypes/phenotypes and edges represent their mutational transitions. We also quantitatively measure the characteristics of phenotypes including their genotypic abundance (the requirement for neutrality) and Kolmogorov complexity. We connect these quantified metrics with search trajectory visualisations, and find that more complex phenotypes are under-represented by fewer genotypes and are harder for evolution to discover. Less complex phenotypes, on the other hand, are over-represented by genotypes, are easier to find, and frequently serve as stepping-stones for evolution.
Most iterative neural network training methods use estimates of the loss function over small random subsets (or minibatches) of the data to update the parameters, which aid in decoupling the training time from the (often very large) size of the training datasets. Here, we show that a minibatch approach can also be used to train neural network ensembles (NNEs) via trajectory methods in a highly efficent manner. We illustrate this approach by training NNEs to classify images in the MNIST datasets. This method gives an improvement to the training times, allowing it to scale as the ratio of the size of the dataset to that of the average minibatch size which, in the case of MNIST, gives a computational improvement typically of two orders of magnitude. We highlight the advantage of using longer trajectories to represent NNEs, both for improved accuracy in inference and reduced update cost in terms of the samples needed in minibatch updates.
Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, such as quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a $ProbSparse$ Self-attention mechanism, which achieves $O(L \log L)$ in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.
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