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This paper studies linear time series regressions with many regressors. Weak exogeneity is the most used identifying assumption in time series. Weak exogeneity requires the structural error to have zero conditional expectation given the present and past regressor values, allowing errors to correlate with future regressor realizations. We show that weak exogeneity in time series regressions with many controls may produce substantial biases and even render the least squares (OLS) estimator inconsistent. The bias arises in settings with many regressors because the normalized OLS design matrix remains asymptotically random and correlates with the regression error when only weak (but not strict) exogeneity holds. This bias's magnitude increases with the number of regressors and their average autocorrelation. To address this issue, we propose an innovative approach to bias correction that yields a new estimator with improved properties relative to OLS. We establish consistency and conditional asymptotic Gaussianity of this new estimator and provide a method for inference.

Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify causal relations underlying observational data is crucial but also poses significant challenges. Recently, topology-based methods have emerged as a two-step approach to discovering DAGs by first learning the topological ordering of variables and then eliminating redundant edges, while ensuring that the graph remains acyclic. However, one limitation is that these methods would generate numerous spurious edges that require subsequent pruning. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we propose an improvement to topology-based methods by introducing limited time series data, consisting of only two cross-sectional records that need not be adjacent in time and are subject to flexible timing. By incorporating conditional instrumental variables as exogenous interventions, we aim to identify descendant nodes for each variable. Following this line, we propose a hierarchical topological ordering algorithm with conditional independence test (HT-CIT), which enables the efficient learning of sparse DAGs with a smaller search space compared to other popular approaches. The HT-CIT algorithm greatly reduces the number of edges that need to be pruned. Empirical results from synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed HT-CIT algorithm.

We propose a supervised principal component regression method for relating functional responses with high dimensional predictors. Unlike the conventional principal component analysis, the proposed method builds on a newly defined expected integrated residual sum of squares, which directly makes use of the association between the functional response and the predictors. Minimizing the integrated residual sum of squares gives the supervised principal components, which is equivalent to solving a sequence of nonconvex generalized Rayleigh quotient optimization problems. We reformulate the nonconvex optimization problems into a simultaneous linear regression with a sparse penalty to deal with high dimensional predictors. Theoretically, we show that the reformulated regression problem can recover the same supervised principal subspace under certain conditions. Statistically, we establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the proposed estimators when the covariate covariance is bandable. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method through numerical experiments and an application to the Human Connectome Project fMRI data.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.

Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.

Recommender System (RS) is a hot area where artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be effectively applied to improve performance. Since the well-known Netflix Challenge, collaborative filtering (CF) has become the most popular and effective recommendation method. Despite their success in CF, various AI techniques still have to face the data sparsity and cold start problems. Previous works tried to solve these two problems by utilizing auxiliary information, such as social connections among users and meta-data of items. However, they process different types of information separately, leading to information loss. In this work, we propose to utilize Heterogeneous Information Network (HIN), which is a natural and general representation of different types of data, to enhance CF-based recommending methods. HIN-based recommender systems face two problems: how to represent high-level semantics for recommendation and how to fuse the heterogeneous information to recommend. To address these problems, we propose to applying meta-graph to HIN-based RS and solve the information fusion problem with a "matrix factorization (MF) + factorization machine (FM)" framework. For the "MF" part, we obtain user-item similarity matrices from each meta-graph and adopt low-rank matrix approximation to get latent features for both users and items. For the "FM" part, we propose to apply FM with Group lasso (FMG) on the obtained features to simultaneously predict missing ratings and select useful meta-graphs. Experimental results on two large real-world datasets, i.e., Amazon and Yelp, show that our proposed approach is better than that of the state-of-the-art FM and other HIN-based recommending methods.

Recently, deep learning has achieved very promising results in visual object tracking. Deep neural networks in existing tracking methods require a lot of training data to learn a large number of parameters. However, training data is not sufficient for visual object tracking as annotations of a target object are only available in the first frame of a test sequence. In this paper, we propose to learn hierarchical features for visual object tracking by using tree structure based Recursive Neural Networks (RNN), which have fewer parameters than other deep neural networks, e.g. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we learn RNN parameters to discriminate between the target object and background in the first frame of a test sequence. Tree structure over local patches of an exemplar region is randomly generated by using a bottom-up greedy search strategy. Given the learned RNN parameters, we create two dictionaries regarding target regions and corresponding local patches based on the learned hierarchical features from both top and leaf nodes of multiple random trees. In each of the subsequent frames, we conduct sparse dictionary coding on all candidates to select the best candidate as the new target location. In addition, we online update two dictionaries to handle appearance changes of target objects. Experimental results demonstrate that our feature learning algorithm can significantly improve tracking performance on benchmark datasets.