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Shrinkage methods are frequently used to estimate fixed effects to reduce the noisiness of the least squares estimators. However, widely used shrinkage estimators guarantee such noise reduction only under strong distributional assumptions. I develop an estimator for the fixed effects that obtains the best possible mean squared error within a class of shrinkage estimators. This class includes conventional shrinkage estimators and the optimality does not require distributional assumptions. The estimator has an intuitive form and is easy to implement. Moreover, the fixed effects are allowed to vary with time and to be serially correlated, and the shrinkage optimally incorporates the underlying correlation structure in this case. In such a context, I also provide a method to forecast fixed effects one period ahead.

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Optimizing static risk-averse objectives in Markov decision processes is difficult because they do not admit standard dynamic programming equations common in Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Dynamic programming decompositions that augment the state space with discrete risk levels have recently gained popularity in the RL community. Prior work has shown that these decompositions are optimal when the risk level is discretized sufficiently. However, we show that these popular decompositions for Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Entropic-Value-at-Risk (EVaR) are inherently suboptimal regardless of the discretization level. In particular, we show that a saddle point property assumed to hold in prior literature may be violated. However, a decomposition does hold for Value-at-Risk and our proof demonstrates how this risk measure differs from CVaR and EVaR. Our findings are significant because risk-averse algorithms are used in high-stake environments, making their correctness much more critical.

Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to the realization of reliable and robust systems. By providing complementary information, it becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions, particularly within high-risk applications. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the advantages and limitations inherent in various methods within the medical imaging field necessitates further research coupled with in-depth analysis. In this paper, we explore Conformal Prediction, an emerging distribution-free uncertainty quantification technique, along with Monte Carlo Dropout and Evidential Deep Learning methods. Our comprehensive experiments provide a comparative performance analysis for skin lesion classification tasks across the three quantification methods. Furthermore, We present insights into the effectiveness of each method in handling Out-of-Distribution samples from domain-shifted datasets. Based on our experimental findings, our conclusion highlights the robustness and consistent performance of conformal prediction across diverse conditions. This positions it as the preferred choice for decision-making in safety-critical applications.

Uncertainty quantification for inverse problems in imaging has drawn much attention lately. Existing approaches towards this task define uncertainty regions based on probable values per pixel, while ignoring spatial correlations within the image, resulting in an exaggerated volume of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose PUQ (Principal Uncertainty Quantification) -- a novel definition and corresponding analysis of uncertainty regions that takes into account spatial relationships within the image, thus providing reduced volume regions. Using recent advancements in generative models, we derive uncertainty intervals around principal components of the empirical posterior distribution, forming an ambiguity region that guarantees the inclusion of true unseen values with a user-defined confidence probability. To improve computational efficiency and interpretability, we also guarantee the recovery of true unseen values using only a few principal directions, resulting in more informative uncertainty regions. Our approach is verified through experiments on image colorization, super-resolution, and inpainting; its effectiveness is shown through comparison to baseline methods, demonstrating significantly tighter uncertainty regions.

Temporal graphs are dynamic graphs where the edge set can change in each time step, while the vertex set stays the same. Exploration of temporal graphs whose snapshot in each time step is a connected graph, called connected temporal graphs, has been widely studied. In this paper, we extend the concept of graph automorphisms from static graphs to temporal graphs for the first time and show that symmetries enable faster exploration: We prove that a connected temporal graph with $n$ vertices and orbit number $r$ (i.e., $r$~is the number of automorphism orbits) can be explored in $O(r n^{1+\epsilon})$ time steps, for any fixed $\epsilon>0$. For $r=O(n^c)$ for constant $c<1$, this is a significant improvement over the known tight worst-case bound of $\Theta(n^2)$ time steps for arbitrary connected temporal graphs. We also give two lower bounds for temporal exploration, showing that $\Omega(n \log n)$ time steps are required for some inputs with $r=O(1)$ and that $\Omega(rn)$ time steps are required for some inputs for any $r$ with $1\le r\le n$. Moreover, we show that the techniques we develop for fast exploration can be used to derive the following result for rendezvous: Two agents with different programs and without communication ability are placed by an adversary at arbitrary vertices and given full information about the connected temporal graph, except that they do not have consistent vertex labels. Then the two agents can meet at a common vertex after $O(n^{1+\epsilon})$ time steps, for any constant $\epsilon>0$. For some connected temporal graphs with the orbit number being a constant, we also present a complementary lower bound of $\Omega(n\log n)$ time steps.

Morphing quadrotors with four external actuators can adapt to different restricted scenarios by changing their geometric structure. However, previous works mainly focus on the improvements in structures and controllers, and existing planning algorithms don't consider the morphological modifications, which leads to safety and dynamic feasibility issues. In this paper, we propose a unified planning and control framework for morphing quadrotors to deform autonomously and efficiently. The framework consists of a milliseconds-level spatial-temporal trajectory optimizer that takes into account the morphological modifications of quadrotors. The optimizer can generate full-body safety trajectories including position and attitude. Additionally, it incorporates a nonlinear attitude controller that accounts for aerodynamic drag and dynamically adjusts dynamic parameters such as the inertia tensor and Center of Gravity. The controller can also online compute the thrust coefficient during morphing. Benchmark experiments compared with existing methods validate the robustness of the proposed controller. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

The purpose of this work is to present an effective tool for computing different QR-decompositions of a complex nonsingular square matrix. The concept of the discrete signal-induced heap transform (DsiHT, Grigoryan 2006) is used. This transform is fast, has a unique algorithm for any length of the input vector/signal and can be used with different complex basic 2x2 transforms. The DsiHT zeroes all components of the input signal while moving or heaping the energy of the signal into one component, such as the first. We describe three different types of QR-decompositions that use the basic transforms with the T, G, and M-type complex matrices we introduce, and also without matrices, but using analytical formulas. We also present the mixed QR-decomposition, when different type DsiHTs are used at different stages of the algorithm. The number of such decompositions is greater than 3^((N-1)), for an NxN complex matrix. Examples of the QR-decomposition are described in detail for the 4x4 and 6x6 complex matrices and compared with the known method of Householder transforms. The precision of the QR-decompositions of NxN matrices, when N are 6, 13, 17, 19, 21, 40, 64, 100, 128, 201, 256, and 400 is also compared. The MATLAB-based scripts of the codes for QR-decompositions by the described DsiHTs are given.

This paper considers master equations for Markovian kinetic schemes that possess the detailed balance property. Chemical kinetics, as a prime example, often yields large-scale, highly stiff equations. Based on chemical intuitions, Sumiya et al. (2015) presented the rate constant matrix contraction (RCMC) method that computes approximate solutions to such intractable systems. This paper aims to establish a mathematical foundation for the RCMC method. We present a reformulated RCMC method in terms of matrix computation, deriving the method from several natural requirements. We then perform a theoretical error analysis based on eigendecomposition and discuss implementation details caring about computational efficiency and numerical stability. Through numerical experiments on synthetic and real kinetic models, we validate the efficiency, numerical stability, and accuracy of the presented method.

Formation coordination is a critical aspect of swarm robotics, which involves coordinating the motion and behavior of a group of robots to achieve a specific objective. In formation coordination, the robots must maintain a specific spatial arrangement while in motion. In this paper, we present a leader-follower column formation coordination problem in an unknown, two-dimensional nonlinear manifold, where we redefining it as a trajectory estimation problem. Leveraging Koopman operator theory and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition, we estimate the measurement vectors for the follower agent and guide its nonlinear trajectories.

Coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) are key tasks in modeling the complex dynamics of many physical processes. Recently, neural operators have shown the ability to solve PDEs by learning the integral kernel directly in Fourier/Wavelet space, so the difficulty for solving the coupled PDEs depends on dealing with the coupled mappings between the functions. Towards this end, we propose a \textit{coupled multiwavelets neural operator} (CMWNO) learning scheme by decoupling the coupled integral kernels during the multiwavelet decomposition and reconstruction procedures in the Wavelet space. The proposed model achieves significantly higher accuracy compared to previous learning-based solvers in solving the coupled PDEs including Gray-Scott (GS) equations and the non-local mean field game (MFG) problem. According to our experimental results, the proposed model exhibits a $2\times \sim 4\times$ improvement relative $L$2 error compared to the best results from the state-of-the-art models.

As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to scale up, they are becoming more capable and integrated into various forms of decision-making systems. For models involved in moral decision-making, also known as artificial moral agents (AMA), interpretability provides a way to trust and understand the agent's internal reasoning mechanisms for effective use and error correction. In this paper, we provide an overview of this rapidly-evolving sub-field of AI interpretability, introduce the concept of the Minimum Level of Interpretability (MLI) and recommend an MLI for various types of agents, to aid their safe deployment in real-world settings.

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