We consider the problem of predicting how the likelihood of an outcome of interest for a patient changes over time as we observe more of the patient data. To solve this problem, we propose a supervised contrastive learning framework that learns an embedding representation for each time step of a patient time series. Our framework learns the embedding space to have the following properties: (1) nearby points in the embedding space have similar predicted class probabilities, (2) adjacent time steps of the same time series map to nearby points in the embedding space, and (3) time steps with very different raw feature vectors map to far apart regions of the embedding space. To achieve property (3), we employ a nearest neighbor pairing mechanism in the raw feature space. This mechanism also serves as an alternative to data augmentation, a key ingredient of contrastive learning, which lacks a standard procedure that is adequately realistic for clinical tabular data, to our knowledge. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predicting mortality of septic patients (MIMIC-III dataset) and tracking progression of cognitive impairment (ADNI dataset). Our method also consistently recovers the correct synthetic dataset embedding structure across experiments, a feat not achieved by baselines. Our ablation experiments show the pivotal role of our nearest neighbor pairing.
相關內容
This paper considers the filtering problem which consists in reconstructing the state of a dynamical system with partial observations coming from sensor measurements, and the knowledge that the dynamics are governed by a physical PDE model with unknown parameters. We present a filtering algorithm where the reconstruction of the dynamics is done with neural network approximations whose weights are dynamically updated using observational data. In addition to the estimate of the state, we also obtain time-dependent parameter estimations of the PDE parameters governing the observed evolution. We illustrate the behavior of the method in a one-dimensional KdV equation involving the transport of solutions with local support. Our numerical investigation reveals the importance of the location and number of the observations. In particular, it suggests to consider dynamical sensor placement.
Animals often demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to their environments during their lifetime. They do so partly due to the evolution of morphological and neural structures. These structures capture features of environments shared between generations to bias and speed up lifetime learning. In this work, we propose a computational model for studying a mechanism that can enable such a process. We adopt a computational framework based on meta reinforcement learning as a model of the interplay between evolution and development. At the evolutionary scale, we evolve reservoirs, a family of recurrent neural networks that differ from conventional networks in that one optimizes not the synaptic weights, but hyperparameters controlling macro-level properties of the resulting network architecture. At the developmental scale, we employ these evolved reservoirs to facilitate the learning of a behavioral policy through Reinforcement Learning (RL). Within an RL agent, a reservoir encodes the environment state before providing it to an action policy. We evaluate our approach on several 2D and 3D simulated environments. Our results show that the evolution of reservoirs can improve the learning of diverse challenging tasks. We study in particular three hypotheses: the use of an architecture combining reservoirs and reinforcement learning could enable (1) solving tasks with partial observability, (2) generating oscillatory dynamics that facilitate the learning of locomotion tasks, and (3) facilitating the generalization of learned behaviors to new tasks unknown during the evolution phase.
We address the Individualized continuous treatment effect (ICTE) estimation problem where we predict the effect of any continuous-valued treatment on an individual using observational data. The main challenge in this estimation task is the potential confounding of treatment assignment with an individual's covariates in the training data, whereas during inference ICTE requires prediction on independently sampled treatments. In contrast to prior work that relied on regularizers or unstable GAN training, we advocate the direct approach of augmenting training individuals with independently sampled treatments and inferred counterfactual outcomes. We infer counterfactual outcomes using a two-pronged strategy: a Gradient Interpolation for close-to-observed treatments, and a Gaussian Process based Kernel Smoothing which allows us to downweigh high variance inferences. We evaluate our method on five benchmarks and show that our method outperforms six state-of-the-art methods on the counterfactual estimation error. We analyze the superior performance of our method by showing that (1) our inferred counterfactual responses are more accurate, and (2) adding them to the training data reduces the distributional distance between the confounded training distribution and test distribution where treatment is independent of covariates. Our proposed method is model-agnostic and we show that it improves ICTE accuracy of several existing models.
Humans frequently make decisions with the aid of artificially intelligent (AI) systems. A common pattern is for the AI to recommend an action to the human who retains control over the final decision. Researchers have identified ensuring that a human has appropriate reliance on an AI as a critical component of achieving complementary performance. We argue that the current definition of appropriate reliance used in such research lacks formal statistical grounding and can lead to contradictions. We propose a formal definition of reliance, based on statistical decision theory, which separates the concepts of reliance as the probability the decision-maker follows the AI's prediction from challenges a human may face in differentiating the signals and forming accurate beliefs about the situation. Our definition gives rise to a framework that can be used to guide the design and interpretation of studies on human-AI complementarity and reliance. Using recent AI-advised decision making studies from literature, we demonstrate how our framework can be used to separate the loss due to mis-reliance from the loss due to not accurately differentiating the signals. We evaluate these losses by comparing to a baseline and a benchmark for complementary performance defined by the expected payoff achieved by a rational agent facing the same decision task as the behavioral agents.
Optimal transport is a fundamental topic that has attracted a great amount of attention from the optimization community in the past decades. In this paper, we consider an interesting discrete dynamic optimal transport problem: can we efficiently update the optimal transport plan when the weights or the locations of the data points change? This problem is naturally motivated by several applications in machine learning. For example, we often need to compute the optimal transport cost between two different data sets; if some changes happen to a few data points, should we re-compute the high complexity cost function or update the cost by some efficient dynamic data structure? We are aware that several dynamic maximum flow algorithms have been proposed before, however, the research on dynamic minimum cost flow problem is still quite limited, to the best of our knowledge. We propose a novel 2D Skip Orthogonal List together with some dynamic tree techniques. Although our algorithm is based on the conventional simplex method, it can efficiently find the variable to pivot within expected $O(1)$ time, and complete each pivoting operation within expected $O(|V|)$ time where $V$ is the set of all supply and demand nodes. Since dynamic modifications typically do not introduce significant changes, our algorithm requires only a few simplex iterations in practice. So our algorithm is more efficient than re-computing the optimal transport cost that needs at least one traversal over all $|E| = O(|V|^2)$ variables, where $|E|$ denotes the number of edges in the network. Our experiments demonstrate that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing algorithms in the dynamic scenarios.
Although continuous advances in theoretical modelling of Molecular Communications (MC) are observed, there is still an insuperable gap between theory and experimental testbeds, especially at the microscale. In this paper, the development of the first testbed incorporating engineered yeast cells is reported. Different from the existing literature, eukaryotic yeast cells are considered for both the sender and the receiver, with {\alpha}-factor molecules facilitating the information transfer. The use of such cells is motivated mainly by the well understood biological mechanism of yeast mating, together with their genetic amenability. In addition, recent advances in yeast biosensing establish yeast as a suitable detector and a neat interface to in-body sensor networks. The system under consideration is presented first, and the mathematical models of the underlying biological processes leading to an end-to-end (E2E) system are given. The experimental setup is then described and used to obtain experimental results which validate the developed mathematical models. Beyond that, the ability of the system to effectively generate output pulses in response to repeated stimuli is demonstrated, reporting one event per two hours. However, fast RNA fluctuations indicate cell responses in less than three minutes, demonstrating the potential for much higher rates in the future.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Recently, a considerable literature has grown up around the theme of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). How to effectively leverage the rich structural information in complex graphs, such as knowledge graphs with heterogeneous types of entities and relations, is a primary open challenge in the field. Most GCN methods are either restricted to graphs with a homogeneous type of edges (e.g., citation links only), or focusing on representation learning for nodes only instead of jointly propagating and updating the embeddings of both nodes and edges for target-driven objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a novel framework, namely the Knowledge Embedding based Graph Convolutional Network (KE-GCN), which combines the power of GCNs in graph-based belief propagation and the strengths of advanced knowledge embedding (a.k.a. knowledge graph embedding) methods, and goes beyond. Our theoretical analysis shows that KE-GCN offers an elegant unification of several well-known GCN methods as specific cases, with a new perspective of graph convolution. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the advantageous performance of KE-GCN over strong baseline methods in the tasks of knowledge graph alignment and entity classification.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191