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Long-term forecasting involves predicting a horizon that is far ahead of the last observation. It is a problem of high practical relevance, for instance for companies in order to decide upon expensive long-term investments. Despite the recent progress and success of Gaussian processes (GPs) based on spectral mixture kernels, long-term forecasting remains a challenging problem for these kernels because they decay exponentially at large horizons. This is mainly due to their use of a mixture of Gaussians to model spectral densities. Characteristics of the signal important for long-term forecasting can be unravelled by investigating the distribution of the Fourier coefficients of (the training part of) the signal, which is non-smooth, heavy-tailed, sparse, and skewed. The heavy tail and skewness characteristics of such distributions in the spectral domain allow to capture long-range covariance of the signal in the time domain. Motivated by these observations, we propose to model spectral densities using a skewed Laplace spectral mixture (SLSM) due to the skewness of its peaks, sparsity, non-smoothness, and heavy tail characteristics. By applying the inverse Fourier Transform to this spectral density we obtain a new GP kernel for long-term forecasting. In addition, we adapt the lottery ticket method, originally developed to prune weights of a neural network, to GPs in order to automatically select the number of kernel components. Results of extensive experiments, including a multivariate time series, show the beneficial effect of the proposed SLSM kernel for long-term extrapolation and robustness to the choice of the number of mixture components.

In this paper, we study a general low-rank matrix recovery problem with linear measurements corrupted by some noise. The objective is to understand under what conditions on the restricted isometry property (RIP) of the problem local search methods can find the ground truth with a small error. By analyzing the landscape of the non-convex problem, we first propose a global guarantee on the maximum distance between an arbitrary local minimizer and the ground truth under the assumption that the RIP constant is smaller than $1/2$. We show that this distance shrinks to zero as the intensity of the noise reduces. Our new guarantee is sharp in terms of the RIP constant and is much stronger than the existing results. We then present a local guarantee for problems with an arbitrary RIP constant, which states that any local minimizer is either considerably close to the ground truth or far away from it. Next, we prove the strict saddle property, which guarantees the global convergence of the perturbed gradient descent method in polynomial time. The developed results demonstrate how the noise intensity and the RIP constant of the problem affect the landscape of the problem.

The recovery of signals that are sparse not in a basis, but rather sparse with respect to an over-complete dictionary is one of the most flexible settings in the field of compressed sensing with numerous applications. As in the standard compressed sensing setting, it is possible that the signal can be reconstructed efficiently from few, linear measurements, for example by the so-called $\ell_1$-synthesis method. However, it has been less well-understood which measurement matrices provably work for this setting. Whereas in the standard setting, it has been shown that even certain heavy-tailed measurement matrices can be used in the same sample complexity regime as Gaussian matrices, comparable results are only available for the restrictive class of sub-Gaussian measurement vectors as far as the recovery of dictionary-sparse signals via $\ell_1$-synthesis is concerned. In this work, we fill this gap and establish optimal guarantees for the recovery of vectors that are (approximately) sparse with respect to a dictionary via the $\ell_1$-synthesis method from linear, potentially noisy measurements for a large class of random measurement matrices. In particular, we show that random measurements that fulfill only a small-ball assumption and a weak moment assumption, such as random vectors with i.i.d. Student-$t$ entries with a logarithmic number of degrees of freedom, lead to comparable guarantees as (sub-)Gaussian measurements. As a technical tool, we show a bound on the expectation of the sum of squared order statistics under very general assumptions, which might be of independent interest. As a corollary of our results, we also obtain a slight improvement on the weakest assumption on a measurement matrix with i.i.d. rows sufficient for uniform recovery in standard compressed sensing, improving on results by Lecu\'e and Mendelson and Dirksen, Lecu\'e and Rauhut.

Centralized Training with Decentralized Execution (CTDE) has been a popular paradigm in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) settings and is widely used in many real applications. One of the major challenges in the training process is credit assignment, which aims to deduce the contributions of each agent according to the global rewards. Existing credit assignment methods focus on either decomposing the joint value function into individual value functions or measuring the impact of local observations and actions on the global value function. These approaches lack a thorough consideration of the complicated interactions among multiple agents, leading to an unsuitable assignment of credit and subsequently mediocre results on MARL. We propose Shapley Counterfactual Credit Assignment, a novel method for explicit credit assignment which accounts for the coalition of agents. Specifically, Shapley Value and its desired properties are leveraged in deep MARL to credit any combinations of agents, which grants us the capability to estimate the individual credit for each agent. Despite this capability, the main technical difficulty lies in the computational complexity of Shapley Value who grows factorially as the number of agents. We instead utilize an approximation method via Monte Carlo sampling, which reduces the sample complexity while maintaining its effectiveness. We evaluate our method on StarCraft II benchmarks across different scenarios. Our method outperforms existing cooperative MARL algorithms significantly and achieves the state-of-the-art, with especially large margins on tasks with more severe difficulties.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

This work focuses on mitigating two limitations in the joint learning of local feature detectors and descriptors. First, the ability to estimate the local shape (scale, orientation, etc.) of feature points is often neglected during dense feature extraction, while the shape-awareness is crucial to acquire stronger geometric invariance. Second, the localization accuracy of detected keypoints is not sufficient to reliably recover camera geometry, which has become the bottleneck in tasks such as 3D reconstruction. In this paper, we present ASLFeat, with three light-weight yet effective modifications to mitigate above issues. First, we resort to deformable convolutional networks to densely estimate and apply local transformation. Second, we take advantage of the inherent feature hierarchy to restore spatial resolution and low-level details for accurate keypoint localization. Finally, we use a peakiness measurement to relate feature responses and derive more indicative detection scores. The effect of each modification is thoroughly studied, and the evaluation is extensively conducted across a variety of practical scenarios. State-of-the-art results are reported that demonstrate the superiority of our methods.

This work presents a new strategy for multi-class classification that requires no class-specific labels, but instead leverages pairwise similarity between examples, which is a weaker form of annotation. The proposed method, meta classification learning, optimizes a binary classifier for pairwise similarity prediction and through this process learns a multi-class classifier as a submodule. We formulate this approach, present a probabilistic graphical model for it, and derive a surprisingly simple loss function that can be used to learn neural network-based models. We then demonstrate that this same framework generalizes to the supervised, unsupervised cross-task, and semi-supervised settings. Our method is evaluated against state of the art in all three learning paradigms and shows a superior or comparable accuracy, providing evidence that learning multi-class classification without multi-class labels is a viable learning option.

Although reinforcement learning methods can achieve impressive results in simulation, the real world presents two major challenges: generating samples is exceedingly expensive, and unexpected perturbations can cause proficient but narrowly-learned policies to fail at test time. In this work, we propose to learn how to quickly and effectively adapt online to new situations as well as to perturbations. To enable sample-efficient meta-learning, we consider learning online adaptation in the context of model-based reinforcement learning. Our approach trains a global model such that, when combined with recent data, the model can be be rapidly adapted to the local context. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach can enable simulated agents to adapt their behavior online to novel terrains, to a crippled leg, and in highly-dynamic environments.

Like any large software system, a full-fledged DBMS offers an overwhelming amount of configuration knobs. These range from static initialisation parameters like buffer sizes, degree of concurrency, or level of replication to complex runtime decisions like creating a secondary index on a particular column or reorganising the physical layout of the store. To simplify the configuration, industry grade DBMSs are usually shipped with various advisory tools, that provide recommendations for given workloads and machines. However, reality shows that the actual configuration, tuning, and maintenance is usually still done by a human administrator, relying on intuition and experience. Recent work on deep reinforcement learning has shown very promising results in solving problems, that require such a sense of intuition. For instance, it has been applied very successfully in learning how to play complicated games with enormous search spaces. Motivated by these achievements, in this work we explore how deep reinforcement learning can be used to administer a DBMS. First, we will describe how deep reinforcement learning can be used to automatically tune an arbitrary software system like a DBMS by defining a problem environment. Second, we showcase our concept of NoDBA at the concrete example of index selection and evaluate how well it recommends indexes for given workloads.