The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach makes it possible to estimate an uncertainty of time series prediction and calculate value at risk characteristics. A hierarchical model for time series using Bayesian regression has been considered. In this approach, one set of parameters is the same for all data samples, other parameters can be different for different groups of data samples. Such an approach allows using this model in the case of short historical data for specified time series, e.g. in the case of new stores or new products in the sales prediction problem. In the study of predictive models stacking, the models ARIMA, Neural Network, Random Forest, Extra Tree were used for the prediction on the first level of model ensemble. On the second level, time series predictions of these models on the validation set were used for stacking by Bayesian regression. This approach gives distributions for regression coefficients of these models. It makes it possible to estimate the uncertainty contributed by each model to stacking result. The information about these distributions allows us to select an optimal set of stacking models, taking into account the domain knowledge. The probabilistic approach for stacking predictive models allows us to make risk assessment for the predictions that are important in a decision-making process.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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We present a method to simulate movement in interaction with computers, using Model Predictive Control (MPC). The method starts from understanding interaction from an Optimal Feedback Control (OFC) perspective. We assume that users aim to minimize an internalized cost function, subject to the constraints imposed by the human body and the interactive system. In contrast to previous linear approaches used in HCI, MPC can compute optimal controls for nonlinear systems. This allows us to use state-of-the-art biomechanical models and handle nonlinearities that occur in almost any interactive system. Instead of torque actuation, our model employs second-order muscles acting directly at the joints. We compare three different cost functions and evaluate the simulated trajectories against user movements in a Fitts' Law type pointing study with four different interaction techniques. Our results show that the combination of distance, control, and joint acceleration cost matches individual users' movements best, and predicts movements with an accuracy that is within the between-user variance. To aid HCI researchers and designers, we introduce CFAT, a novel method to identify maximum voluntary torques in joint-actuated models based on experimental data, and give practical advice on how to simulate human movement for different users, interaction techniques, and tasks.
We provide a decision theoretic analysis of bandit experiments. The setting corresponds to a dynamic programming problem, but solving this directly is typically infeasible. Working within the framework of diffusion asymptotics, we define suitable notions of asymptotic Bayes and minimax risk for bandit experiments. For normally distributed rewards, the minimal Bayes risk can be characterized as the solution to a nonlinear second-order partial differential equation (PDE). Using a limit of experiments approach, we show that this PDE characterization also holds asymptotically under both parametric and non-parametric distribution of the rewards. The approach further describes the state variables it is asymptotically sufficient to restrict attention to, and therefore suggests a practical strategy for dimension reduction. The upshot is that we can approximate the dynamic programming problem defining the bandit experiment with a PDE which can be efficiently solved using sparse matrix routines. We derive the optimal Bayes and minimax policies from the numerical solutions to these equations. The proposed policies substantially dominate existing methods such as Thompson sampling. The framework also allows for substantial generalizations to the bandit problem such as time discounting and pure exploration motives.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
The best neural architecture for a given machine learning problem depends on many factors: not only the complexity and structure of the dataset, but also on resource constraints including latency, compute, energy consumption, etc. Neural architecture search (NAS) for tabular datasets is an important but under-explored problem. Previous NAS algorithms designed for image search spaces incorporate resource constraints directly into the reinforcement learning rewards. In this paper, we argue that search spaces for tabular NAS pose considerable challenges for these existing reward-shaping methods, and propose a new reinforcement learning (RL) controller to address these challenges. Motivated by rejection sampling, when we sample candidate architectures during a search, we immediately discard any architecture that violates our resource constraints. We use a Monte-Carlo-based correction to our RL policy gradient update to account for this extra filtering step. Results on several tabular datasets show TabNAS, the proposed approach, efficiently finds high-quality models that satisfy the given resource constraints.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
The adaptive processing of structured data is a long-standing research topic in machine learning that investigates how to automatically learn a mapping from a structured input to outputs of various nature. Recently, there has been an increasing interest in the adaptive processing of graphs, which led to the development of different neural network-based methodologies. In this thesis, we take a different route and develop a Bayesian Deep Learning framework for graph learning. The dissertation begins with a review of the principles over which most of the methods in the field are built, followed by a study on graph classification reproducibility issues. We then proceed to bridge the basic ideas of deep learning for graphs with the Bayesian world, by building our deep architectures in an incremental fashion. This framework allows us to consider graphs with discrete and continuous edge features, producing unsupervised embeddings rich enough to reach the state of the art on several classification tasks. Our approach is also amenable to a Bayesian nonparametric extension that automatizes the choice of almost all model's hyper-parameters. Two real-world applications demonstrate the efficacy of deep learning for graphs. The first concerns the prediction of information-theoretic quantities for molecular simulations with supervised neural models. After that, we exploit our Bayesian models to solve a malware-classification task while being robust to intra-procedural code obfuscation techniques. We conclude the dissertation with an attempt to blend the best of the neural and Bayesian worlds together. The resulting hybrid model is able to predict multimodal distributions conditioned on input graphs, with the consequent ability to model stochasticity and uncertainty better than most works. Overall, we aim to provide a Bayesian perspective into the articulated research field of deep learning for graphs.
The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve core issues of deep neural networks such as poor calibration and data inefficiency. Alas, scaling Bayesian inference to large weight spaces often requires restrictive approximations. In this work, we show that it suffices to perform inference over a small subset of model weights in order to obtain accurate predictive posteriors. The other weights are kept as point estimates. This subnetwork inference framework enables us to use expressive, otherwise intractable, posterior approximations over such subsets. In particular, we implement subnetwork linearized Laplace: We first obtain a MAP estimate of all weights and then infer a full-covariance Gaussian posterior over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection strategy that aims to maximally preserve the model's predictive uncertainty. Empirically, our approach is effective compared to ensembles and less expressive posterior approximations over full networks.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
Most of the internet today is composed of digital media that includes videos and images. With pixels becoming the currency in which most transactions happen on the internet, it is becoming increasingly important to have a way of browsing through this ocean of information with relative ease. YouTube has 400 hours of video uploaded every minute and many million images are browsed on Instagram, Facebook, etc. Inspired by recent advances in the field of deep learning and success that it has gained on various problems like image captioning and, machine translation , word2vec , skip thoughts, etc, we present DeepSeek a natural language processing based deep learning model that allows users to enter a description of the kind of images that they want to search, and in response the system retrieves all the images that semantically and contextually relate to the query. Two approaches are described in the following sections.
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