Denoising diffusion models trained at web-scale have revolutionized image generation. The application of these tools to engineering design is an intriguing possibility, but is currently limited by their inability to parse and enforce concrete engineering constraints. In this paper, we take a step towards this goal by proposing physics-based guidance, which enables optimization of a performance metric (as predicted by a surrogate model) during the generation process. As a proof-of-concept, we add drag guidance to Stable Diffusion, which allows this tool to generate images of novel vehicles while simultaneously minimizing their predicted drag coefficients.
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The application of deep learning to non-stationary temporal datasets can lead to overfitted models that underperform under regime changes. In this work, we propose a modular machine learning pipeline for ranking predictions on temporal panel datasets which is robust under regime changes. The modularity of the pipeline allows the use of different models, including Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) and Neural Networks, with and without feature engineering. We evaluate our framework on financial data for stock portfolio prediction, and find that GBDT models with dropout display high performance, robustness and generalisability with reduced complexity and computational cost. We then demonstrate how online learning techniques, which require no retraining of models, can be used post-prediction to enhance the results. First, we show that dynamic feature projection improves robustness by reducing drawdown in regime changes. Second, we demonstrate that dynamical model ensembling based on selection of models with good recent performance leads to improved Sharpe and Calmar ratios of out-of-sample predictions. We also evaluate the robustness of our pipeline across different data splits and random seeds with good reproducibility.
An explanation method called SurvBeX is proposed to interpret predictions of the machine learning survival black-box models. The main idea behind the method is to use the modified Beran estimator as the surrogate explanation model. Coefficients, incorporated into Beran estimator, can be regarded as values of the feature impacts on the black-box model prediction. Following the well-known LIME method, many points are generated in a local area around an example of interest. For every generated example, the survival function of the black-box model is computed, and the survival function of the surrogate model (the Beran estimator) is constructed as a function of the explanation coefficients. In order to find the explanation coefficients, it is proposed to minimize the mean distance between the survival functions of the black-box model and the Beran estimator produced by the generated examples. Many numerical experiments with synthetic and real survival data demonstrate the SurvBeX efficiency and compare the method with the well-known method SurvLIME. The method is also compared with the method SurvSHAP. The code implementing SurvBeX is available at: //github.com/DanilaEremenko/SurvBeX
The use of Air traffic management (ATM) simulators for planing and operations can be challenging due to their modelling complexity. This paper presents XALM (eXplainable Active Learning Metamodel), a three-step framework integrating active learning and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values into simulation metamodels for supporting ATM decision-making. XALM efficiently uncovers hidden relationships among input and output variables in ATM simulators, those usually of interest in policy analysis. Our experiments show XALM's predictive performance comparable to the XGBoost metamodel with fewer simulations. Additionally, XALM exhibits superior explanatory capabilities compared to non-active learning metamodels. Using the `Mercury' (flight and passenger) ATM simulator, XALM is applied to a real-world scenario in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, extending an arrival manager's range and scope by analysing six variables. This case study illustrates XALM's effectiveness in enhancing simulation interpretability and understanding variable interactions. By addressing computational challenges and improving explainability, XALM complements traditional simulation-based analyses. Lastly, we discuss two practical approaches for reducing the computational burden of the metamodelling further: we introduce a stopping criterion for active learning based on the inherent uncertainty of the metamodel, and we show how the simulations used for the metamodel can be reused across key performance indicators, thus decreasing the overall number of simulations needed.
The standard photometric stereo model makes several assumptions that are rarely verified in experimental datasets. In particular, the observed object should behave as a Lambertian reflector and the light sources should be positioned at an infinite distance from it, along a known direction. Even when Lambert's law is approximately fulfilled, an accurate assessment of the relative position between the light source and the target is often unavailable in real situations. The Hayakawa procedure is a computational method for estimating such information directly from the data images. It occasionally breaks down when some of the available images excessively deviate from ideality. This is generally due to observing a non Lambertian surface, or illuminating it from a close distance, or both. Indeed, in narrow shooting scenarios, typical, e.g., of archaeological excavation sites, it is impossible to position a flashlight at a sufficient distance from the observed surface. It is then necessary to understand if a given dataset is reliable and which images should be selected to better reconstruct the target. In this paper, we propose some algorithms to perform this task and explore their effectiveness.
A physics-informed machine learning model, in the form of a multi-output Gaussian process, is formulated using the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation. Given appropriate datasets, the model can be used to regress the analytical value of the structure's bending stiffness, interpolate responses, and make probabilistic inferences on latent physical quantities. The developed model is applied on a numerically simulated cantilever beam, where the regressed bending stiffness is evaluated and the influence measurement noise on the prediction quality is investigated. Further, the regressed probabilistic stiffness distribution is used in a structural health monitoring context, where the Mahalanobis distance is employed to reason about the possible location and extent of damage in the structural system. To validate the developed framework, an experiment is conducted and measured heterogeneous datasets are used to update the assumed analytical structural model.
This paper addresses the problem of providing robust estimators under a functional logistic regression model. Logistic regression is a popular tool in classification problems with two populations. As in functional linear regression, regularization tools are needed to compute estimators for the functional slope. The traditional methods are based on dimension reduction or penalization combined with maximum likelihood or quasi--likelihood techniques and for that reason, they may be affected by misclassified points especially if they are associated to functional covariates with atypical behaviour. The proposal given in this paper adapts some of the best practices used when the covariates are finite--dimensional to provide reliable estimations. Under regularity conditions, consistency of the resulting estimators and rates of convergence for the predictions are derived. A numerical study illustrates the finite sample performance of the proposed method and reveals its stability under different contamination scenarios. A real data example is also presented.
Partially linear additive models generalize linear ones since they model the relation between a response variable and covariates by assuming that some covariates have a linear relation with the response but each of the others enter through unknown univariate smooth functions. The harmful effect of outliers either in the residuals or in the covariates involved in the linear component has been described in the situation of partially linear models, that is, when only one nonparametric component is involved in the model. When dealing with additive components, the problem of providing reliable estimators when atypical data arise, is of practical importance motivating the need of robust procedures. Hence, we propose a family of robust estimators for partially linear additive models by combining $B-$splines with robust linear regression estimators. We obtain consistency results, rates of convergence and asymptotic normality for the linear components, under mild assumptions. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to compare the performance of the robust proposal with its classical counterpart under different models and contamination schemes. The numerical experiments show the advantage of the proposed methodology for finite samples. We also illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach on a real data set.
Kinetic approaches are generally accurate in dealing with microscale plasma physics problems but are computationally expensive for large-scale or multiscale systems. One of the long-standing problems in plasma physics is the integration of kinetic physics into fluid models, which is often achieved through sophisticated analytical closure terms. In this paper, we successfully construct a multi-moment fluid model with an implicit fluid closure included in the neural network using machine learning. The multi-moment fluid model is trained with a small fraction of sparsely sampled data from kinetic simulations of Landau damping, using the physics-informed neural network (PINN) and the gradient-enhanced physics-informed neural network (gPINN). The multi-moment fluid model constructed using either PINN or gPINN reproduces the time evolution of the electric field energy, including its damping rate, and the plasma dynamics from the kinetic simulations. In addition, we introduce a variant of the gPINN architecture, namely, gPINN$p$ to capture the Landau damping process. Instead of including the gradients of all the equation residuals, gPINN$p$ only adds the gradient of the pressure equation residual as one additional constraint. Among the three approaches, the gPINN$p$-constructed multi-moment fluid model offers the most accurate results. This work sheds light on the accurate and efficient modeling of large-scale systems, which can be extended to complex multiscale laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasma physics problems.
We introduce CartiMorph, a framework for automated knee articular cartilage morphometrics. It takes an image as input and generates quantitative metrics for cartilage subregions, including the percentage of full-thickness cartilage loss (FCL), mean thickness, surface area, and volume. CartiMorph leverages the power of deep learning models for hierarchical image feature representation. Deep learning models were trained and validated for tissue segmentation, template construction, and template-to-image registration. We established methods for surface-normal-based cartilage thickness mapping, FCL estimation, and rule-based cartilage parcellation. Our cartilage thickness map showed less error in thin and peripheral regions. We evaluated the effectiveness of the adopted segmentation model by comparing the quantitative metrics obtained from model segmentation and those from manual segmentation. The root-mean-squared deviation of the FCL measurements was less than 8%, and strong correlations were observed for the mean thickness (Pearson's correlation coefficient $\rho \in [0.82,0.97]$), surface area ($\rho \in [0.82,0.98]$) and volume ($\rho \in [0.89,0.98]$) measurements. We compared our FCL measurements with those from a previous study and found that our measurements deviated less from the ground truths. We observed superior performance of the proposed rule-based cartilage parcellation method compared with the atlas-based approach. CartiMorph has the potential to promote imaging biomarkers discovery for knee osteoarthritis.
The developed computational approach is capable of initiating and propagating cracks inside materials and along material interfaces of general multi-domain structures under quasi-static conditions. Special attention is paid to particular situation of a solid with inhomogeneities. Description of the fracture processes are based on the theory of material damage. It introduces two independent damage parameters to distinguish between interface and internal cracks. The parameter responsible for interface cracks is defined in a thin adhesive layer of the interface and renders relation between stress and strain quantities in fashion of cohesive zone models.The second parameter is defined inside material domains and it is founded on the theory of phase-field fracture guaranteeing the material damage to occur in a thin material strip introducing a regularised model of internal cracks. Additional property of both interface and phase-field damage is their capability to distinguish between fracture modes which is useful if the structures is subjected to combined loading. The solution methodology is based on a variational approach which allows implementation of non-linear programming optimisation into standard methods of finite-element discretisation and time stepping method.Computational implementation is prepared in MATLAB whose numerical data validate developed formulation for analysis of problems of fracture in multi-domain elements of structures.
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