We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied (but not necessarily consistently estimated) by predictive and causal machine learning methods. We post-process these proxies into estimates of the key features. Our approach is generic, it can be used in conjunction with penalized methods, neural networks, random forests, boosted trees, and ensemble methods, both predictive and causal. Estimation and inference are based on repeated data splitting to avoid overfitting and achieve validity. We use quantile aggregation of the results across many potential splits, in particular taking medians of p-values and medians and other quantiles of confidence intervals. We show that quantile aggregation lowers estimation risks over a single split procedure, and establish its principal inferential properties. Finally, our analysis reveals ways to build provably better machine learning proxies through causal learning: we can use the objective functions that we develop to construct the best linear predictors of the effects, to obtain better machine learning proxies in the initial step. We illustrate the use of both inferential tools and causal learners with a randomized field experiment that evaluates a combination of nudges to stimulate demand for immunization in India.
Temporal characteristics are prominently evident in a substantial volume of knowledge, which underscores the pivotal role of Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) in both academia and industry. However, TKGs often suffer from incompleteness for three main reasons: the continuous emergence of new knowledge, the weakness of the algorithm for extracting structured information from unstructured data, and the lack of information in the source dataset. Thus, the task of Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion (TKGC) has attracted increasing attention, aiming to predict missing items based on the available information. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of TKGC methods and their details. Specifically, this paper mainly consists of three components, namely, 1)Background, which covers the preliminaries of TKGC methods, loss functions required for training, as well as the dataset and evaluation protocol; 2)Interpolation, that estimates and predicts the missing elements or set of elements through the relevant available information. It further categorizes related TKGC methods based on how to process temporal information; 3)Extrapolation, which typically focuses on continuous TKGs and predicts future events, and then classifies all extrapolation methods based on the algorithms they utilize. We further pinpoint the challenges and discuss future research directions of TKGC.
While reaching for NLP systems that maximize accuracy, other important metrics of system performance are often overlooked. Prior models are easily forgotten despite their possible suitability in settings where large computing resources are unavailable or relatively more costly. In this paper, we perform a broad comparative evaluation of document-level sentiment analysis models with a focus on resource costs that are important for the feasibility of model deployment and general climate consciousness. Our experiments consider different feature extraction techniques, the effect of ensembling, task-specific deep learning modeling, and domain-independent large language models (LLMs). We find that while a fine-tuned LLM achieves the best accuracy, some alternate configurations provide huge (up to 24, 283 *) resource savings for a marginal (<1%) loss in accuracy. Furthermore, we find that for smaller datasets, the differences in accuracy shrink while the difference in resource consumption grows further.
Flamelet models are widely used in computational fluid dynamics to simulate thermochemical processes in turbulent combustion. These models typically employ memory-expensive lookup tables that are predetermined and represent the combustion process to be simulated. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer a deep learning approach that can store this tabular data using a small number of network weights, potentially reducing the memory demands of complex simulations by orders of magnitude. However, ANNs with standard training losses often struggle with underrepresented targets in multivariate regression tasks, e.g., when learning minor species mass fractions as part of lookup tables. This paper seeks to improve the accuracy of an ANN when learning multiple species mass fractions of a hydrogen (\ce{H2}) combustion lookup table. We assess a simple, yet effective loss weight adjustment that outperforms the standard mean-squared error optimization and enables accurate learning of all species mass fractions, even of minor species where the standard optimization completely fails. Furthermore, we find that the loss weight adjustment leads to more balanced gradients in the network training, which explains its effectiveness.
The goal of continual learning is to improve the performance of recognition models in learning sequentially arrived data. Although most existing works are established on the premise of learning from scratch, growing efforts have been devoted to incorporating the benefits of pre-training. However, how to adaptively exploit the pre-trained knowledge for each incremental task while maintaining its generalizability remains an open question. In this work, we present an extensive analysis for continual learning on a pre-trained model (CLPM), and attribute the key challenge to a progressive overfitting problem. Observing that selectively reducing the learning rate can almost resolve this issue in the representation layer, we propose a simple but extremely effective approach named Slow Learner with Classifier Alignment (SLCA), which further improves the classification layer by modeling the class-wise distributions and aligning the classification layers in a post-hoc fashion. Across a variety of scenarios, our proposal provides substantial improvements for CLPM (e.g., up to 49.76%, 50.05%, 44.69% and 40.16% on Split CIFAR-100, Split ImageNet-R, Split CUB-200 and Split Cars-196, respectively), and thus outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by a large margin. Based on such a strong baseline, critical factors and promising directions are analyzed in-depth to facilitate subsequent research. Code has been made available at: //github.com/GengDavid/SLCA.
Code cloning, the duplication of code fragments, is common in software development. While some reuse aids productivity, excessive cloning hurts maintainability and introduces bugs. Hence, automatic code clone detection is vital. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) possess diverse code-related knowledge, making them versatile for various software engineering challenges. However, LLMs' performance in code clone detection is unclear and needs more study for accurate assessment. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive evaluation of LLMs for clone detection, covering different clone types, languages, and prompts. We find advanced LLMs excel in detecting complex semantic clones, surpassing existing methods. Adding intermediate reasoning steps via chain-of-thought prompts noticeably enhances performance. Additionally, representing code as vector embeddings, especially with text encoders, effectively aids clone detection.Lastly, the ability of LLMs to detect code clones differs among various programming languages. Our study suggests that LLMs have potential for clone detection due to their language capabilities, offering insights for developing robust LLM-based methods to enhance software engineering.
Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which attach human invisible perturbations to benign inputs. Simultaneously, adversarial examples exhibit transferability under different models, which makes practical black-box attacks feasible. However, existing methods are still incapable of achieving desired transfer attack performance. In this work, from the perspective of gradient optimization and consistency, we analyze and discover the gradient elimination phenomenon as well as the local momentum optimum dilemma. To tackle these issues, we propose Global Momentum Initialization (GI) to suppress gradient elimination and help search for the global optimum. Specifically, we perform gradient pre-convergence before the attack and carry out a global search during the pre-convergence stage. Our method can be easily combined with almost all existing transfer methods, and we improve the success rate of transfer attacks significantly by an average of 6.4% under various advanced defense mechanisms compared to state-of-the-art methods. Eventually, we achieve an attack success rate of 95.4%, fully illustrating the insecurity of existing defense mechanisms. Code is available at $\href{//github.com/Omenzychen/Global-Momentum-Initialization}{this\ URL}$.
Recent artificial intelligence (AI) systems have reached milestones in "grand challenges" ranging from Go to protein-folding. The capability to retrieve medical knowledge, reason over it, and answer medical questions comparably to physicians has long been viewed as one such grand challenge. Large language models (LLMs) have catalyzed significant progress in medical question answering; Med-PaLM was the first model to exceed a "passing" score in US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) style questions with a score of 67.2% on the MedQA dataset. However, this and other prior work suggested significant room for improvement, especially when models' answers were compared to clinicians' answers. Here we present Med-PaLM 2, which bridges these gaps by leveraging a combination of base LLM improvements (PaLM 2), medical domain finetuning, and prompting strategies including a novel ensemble refinement approach. Med-PaLM 2 scored up to 86.5% on the MedQA dataset, improving upon Med-PaLM by over 19% and setting a new state-of-the-art. We also observed performance approaching or exceeding state-of-the-art across MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and MMLU clinical topics datasets. We performed detailed human evaluations on long-form questions along multiple axes relevant to clinical applications. In pairwise comparative ranking of 1066 consumer medical questions, physicians preferred Med-PaLM 2 answers to those produced by physicians on eight of nine axes pertaining to clinical utility (p < 0.001). We also observed significant improvements compared to Med-PaLM on every evaluation axis (p < 0.001) on newly introduced datasets of 240 long-form "adversarial" questions to probe LLM limitations. While further studies are necessary to validate the efficacy of these models in real-world settings, these results highlight rapid progress towards physician-level performance in medical question answering.
The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.
Aspect level sentiment classification aims to identify the sentiment expressed towards an aspect given a context sentence. Previous neural network based methods largely ignore the syntax structure in one sentence. In this paper, we propose a novel target-dependent graph attention network (TD-GAT) for aspect level sentiment classification, which explicitly utilizes the dependency relationship among words. Using the dependency graph, it propagates sentiment features directly from the syntactic context of an aspect target. In our experiments, we show our method outperforms multiple baselines with GloVe embeddings. We also demonstrate that using BERT representations further substantially boosts the performance.
We study the problem of learning representations of entities and relations in knowledge graphs for predicting missing links. The success of such a task heavily relies on the ability of modeling and inferring the patterns of (or between) the relations. In this paper, we present a new approach for knowledge graph embedding called RotatE, which is able to model and infer various relation patterns including: symmetry/antisymmetry, inversion, and composition. Specifically, the RotatE model defines each relation as a rotation from the source entity to the target entity in the complex vector space. In addition, we propose a novel self-adversarial negative sampling technique for efficiently and effectively training the RotatE model. Experimental results on multiple benchmark knowledge graphs show that the proposed RotatE model is not only scalable, but also able to infer and model various relation patterns and significantly outperform existing state-of-the-art models for link prediction.