Diabetes, resulting from inadequate insulin production or utilization, causes extensive harm to the body. Existing diagnostic methods are often invasive and come with drawbacks, such as cost constraints. Although there are machine learning models like Classwise k Nearest Neighbor (CkNN) and General Regression Neural Network (GRNN), they struggle with imbalanced data and result in under-performance. Leveraging advancements in sensor technology and machine learning, we propose a non-invasive diabetes diagnosis using a Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with batch normalization, incorporating data re-sampling and normalization for class balancing. Our method addresses existing challenges such as limited performance associated with traditional machine learning. Experimental results on three datasets show significant improvements in overall accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity compared to traditional methods. Notably, we achieve accuracies of 89.81% in Pima diabetes dataset, 75.49% in CDC BRFSS2015 dataset, and 95.28% in Mesra Diabetes dataset. This underscores the potential of deep learning models for robust diabetes diagnosis. See project website //steve-zeyu-zhang.github.io/DiabetesDiagnosis/
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Myocardial Infarction is a main cause of mortality globally, and accurate risk prediction is crucial for improving patient outcomes. Machine Learning techniques have shown promise in identifying high-risk patients and predicting outcomes. However, patient data often contain vast amounts of information and missing values, posing challenges for feature selection and imputation methods. In this article, we investigate the impact of the data preprocessing task and compare three ensembles boosted tree methods to predict the risk of mortality in patients with myocardial infarction. Further, we use the Tree Shapley Additive Explanations method to identify relationships among all the features for the performed predictions, leveraging the entirety of the available data in the analysis. Notably, our approach achieved a superior performance when compared to other existing machine learning approaches, with an F1-score of 91,2% and an accuracy of 91,8% for LightGBM without data preprocessing.
Imputation methods for dealing with incomplete data typically assume that the missingness mechanism is at random (MAR). These methods can also be applied to missing not at random (MNAR) situations, where the user specifies some adjustment parameters that describe the degree of departure from MAR. The effect of different pre-chosen values is then studied on the inferences. This paper proposes a novel imputation method, the Random Indicator (RI) method, which, in contrast to the current methodology, estimates these adjustment parameters from the data. For an incomplete variable $X$, the RI method assumes that the observed part of $X$ is normal and the probability for $X$ to be missing follows a logistic function. The idea is to estimate the adjustment parameters by generating a pseudo response indicator from this logistic function. Our method iteratively draws imputations for $X$ and the realization of the response indicator $R$, to which we refer as $\dot{R}$, for $X$. By cross-classifying $X$ by $R$ and $\dot{R}$, we obtain various properties on the distribution of the missing data. These properties form the basis for estimating the degree of departure from MAR. Our numerical simulations show that the RI method performs very well across a variety of situations. We show how the method can be used in a real life data set. The RI method is automatic and opens up new ways to tackle the problem of MNAR data.
We revisit sequential outlier hypothesis testing and derive bounds on the achievable exponents. Specifically, the task of outlier hypothesis testing is to identify the set of outliers that are generated from an anomalous distribution among all observed sequences where most are generated from a nominal distribution. In the sequential setting, one obtains a sample from each sequence per unit time until a reliable decision could be made. We assume that the number of outliers is known while both the nominal and anomalous distributions are unknown. For the case of exactly one outlier, our bounds on the achievable exponents are tight, providing exact large deviations characterization of sequential tests and strengthening a previous result of Li, Nitinawarat and Veeravalli (2017). In particular, we propose a sequential test that has bounded average sample size and better theoretical performance than the fixed-length test, which could not be guaranteed by the corresponding sequential test of Li, Nitinawarat and Veeravalli (2017). Our results are also generalized to the case of multiple outliers.
Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity). This paper studies which uncertainties are needed in model-based decision-making and in Bayesian optimization, and argues that uncertainties can benefit from calibration -- i.e., an 80% predictive interval should contain the true outcome 80% of the time. Maintaining calibration, however, can be challenging when the data is non-stationary and depends on our actions. We propose using simple algorithms based on online learning to provably maintain calibration on non-i.i.d. data, and we show how to integrate these algorithms in Bayesian optimization with minimal overhead. Empirically, we find that calibrated Bayesian optimization converges to better optima in fewer steps, and we demonstrate improved performance on standard benchmark functions and hyperparameter optimization tasks.
Recent studies reveal the connection between GNNs and the diffusion process, which motivates many diffusion-based GNNs to be proposed. However, since these two mechanisms are closely related, one fundamental question naturally arises: Is there a general diffusion framework that can formally unify these GNNs? The answer to this question can not only deepen our understanding of the learning process of GNNs, but also may open a new door to design a broad new class of GNNs. In this paper, we propose a general diffusion equation framework with the fidelity term, which formally establishes the relationship between the diffusion process with more GNNs. Meanwhile, with this framework, we identify one characteristic of graph diffusion networks, i.e., the current neural diffusion process only corresponds to the first-order diffusion equation. However, by an experimental investigation, we show that the labels of high-order neighbors actually exhibit monophily property, which induces the similarity based on labels among high-order neighbors without requiring the similarity among first-order neighbors. This discovery motives to design a new high-order neighbor-aware diffusion equation, and derive a new type of graph diffusion network (HiD-Net) based on the framework. With the high-order diffusion equation, HiD-Net is more robust against attacks and works on both homophily and heterophily graphs. We not only theoretically analyze the relation between HiD-Net with high-order random walk, but also provide a theoretical convergence guarantee. Extensive experimental results well demonstrate the effectiveness of HiD-Net over state-of-the-art graph diffusion networks.
In dynamic motion generation tasks, including contact and collisions, small changes in policy parameters can lead to extremely different returns. For example, in soccer, the ball can fly in completely different directions with a similar heading motion by slightly changing the hitting position or the force applied to the ball or when the friction of the ball varies. However, it is difficult to imagine that completely different skills are needed for heading a ball in different directions. In this study, we proposed a multitask reinforcement learning algorithm for adapting a policy to implicit changes in goals or environments in a single motion category with different reward functions or physical parameters of the environment. We evaluated the proposed method on the ball heading task using a monopod robot model. The results showed that the proposed method can adapt to implicit changes in the goal positions or the coefficients of restitution of the ball, whereas the standard domain randomization approach cannot cope with different task settings.
Urban research has long recognized that neighbourhoods are dynamic and relational. However, lack of data, methodologies, and computer processing power have hampered a formal quantitative examination of neighbourhood relational dynamics. To make progress on this issue, this study proposes a graph neural network (GNN) approach that permits combining and evaluating multiple sources of information about internal characteristics of neighbourhoods, their past characteristics, and flows of groups among them, potentially providing greater expressive power in predictive models. By exploring a public large-scale dataset from Yelp, we show the potential of our approach for considering structural connectedness in predicting neighbourhood attributes, specifically to predict local culture. Results are promising from a substantive and methodologically point of view. Substantively, we find that either local area information (e.g. area demographics) or group profiles (tastes of Yelp reviewers) give the best results in predicting local culture, and they are nearly equivalent in all studied cases. Methodologically, exploring group profiles could be a helpful alternative where finding local information for specific areas is challenging, since they can be extracted automatically from many forms of online data. Thus, our approach could empower researchers and policy-makers to use a range of data sources when other local area information is lacking.
Accurate quantification of Gross Primary Production (GPP) is crucial for understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics. It represents the largest atmosphere-to-land CO$_2$ flux, especially significant for forests. Eddy Covariance (EC) measurements are widely used for ecosystem-scale GPP quantification but are globally sparse. In areas lacking local EC measurements, remote sensing (RS) data are typically utilised to estimate GPP after statistically relating them to in-situ data. Deep learning offers novel perspectives, and the potential of recurrent neural network architectures for estimating daily GPP remains underexplored. This study presents a comparative analysis of three architectures: Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTMs). Our findings reveal comparable performance across all models for full-year and growing season predictions. Notably, LSTMs outperform in predicting climate-induced GPP extremes. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the importance of incorporating radiation and RS inputs (optical, temperature, and radar) for accurate GPP predictions, particularly during climate extremes.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
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