I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects in the setting where an analyst has access to a selected sample rather than a random sample; only for select observations, the outcome is observed. I assume selection is as good as random conditional on treatment and a sufficiently rich set of observed covariates, where the covariates are allowed to cause treatment or be caused by treatment -- an extension of missingness-at-random (MAR). I propose estimators of means, increments, and distributions of counterfactual outcomes with closed form solutions in terms of kernel matrix operations, allowing treatment and covariates to be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. For the continuous treatment case, I prove uniform consistency with finite sample rates. For the discrete treatment case, I prove root-n consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency.
相關內容
I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for long term causal inference, where a short term experimental data set containing randomized treatment and short term surrogates is fused with a long term observational data set containing short term surrogates and long term outcomes. I propose estimators of treatment effects, dose responses, and counterfactual distributions with closed form solutions in terms of kernel matrix operations. I allow covariates, treatment, and surrogates to be discrete or continuous, and low, high, or infinite dimensional. For long term treatment effects, I prove $\sqrt{n}$ consistency, Gaussian approximation, and semiparametric efficiency. For long term dose responses, I prove uniform consistency with finite sample rates. For long term counterfactual distributions, I prove convergence in distribution.
Massive data analysis becomes increasingly prevalent, subsampling methods like BLB (Bag of Little Bootstraps) serves as powerful tools for assessing the quality of estimators for massive data. However, the performance of the subsampling methods are highly influenced by the selection of tuning parameters ( e.g., the subset size, number of resamples per subset ). In this article we develop a hyperparameter selection methodology, which can be used to select tuning parameters for subsampling methods. Specifically, by a careful theoretical analysis, we find an analytically simple and elegant relationship between the asymptotic efficiency of various subsampling estimators and their hyperparameters. This leads to an optimal choice of the hyperparameters. More specifically, for an arbitrarily specified hyperparameter set, we can improve it to be a new set of hyperparameters with no extra CPU time cost, but the resulting estimator's statistical efficiency can be much improved. Both simulation studies and real data analysis demonstrate the superior advantage of our method.
Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single latent confounder that takes values in the same space as the treatment variable, without changing the observational and interventional distributions the causal model entails. This allows us to estimate the causal effect in a principled way from combined data without relying on the common but often unrealistic assumption that all confounders have been observed. We apply our causal reduction in three different settings. In the first setting, we assume the treatment and outcome to be discrete. The causal reduction then implies bounds between the observational and interventional distributions that can be exploited for estimation purposes. In certain cases with highly unbalanced observational samples, the accuracy of the causal effect estimate can be improved by incorporating observational data. Second, for continuous variables and assuming a linear-Gaussian model, we derive equality constraints for the parameters of the observational and interventional distributions. Third, for the general continuous setting (possibly nonlinear or non-Gaussian), we parameterize the reduced causal model using normalizing flows, a flexible class of easily invertible nonlinear transformations. We perform a series of experiments on synthetic data and find that in several cases the number of interventional samples can be reduced when adding observational training samples without sacrificing accuracy.
The paper deals with the distribution of singular values of the input-output Jacobian of deep untrained neural networks in the limit of their infinite width. The Jacobian is the product of random matrices where the independent rectangular weight matrices alternate with diagonal matrices whose entries depend on the corresponding column of the nearest neighbor weight matrix. The problem was considered in \cite{Pe-Co:18} for the Gaussian weights and biases and also for the weights that are Haar distributed orthogonal matrices and Gaussian biases. Basing on a free probability argument, it was claimed that in these cases the singular value distribution of the Jacobian in the limit of infinite width (matrix size) coincides with that of the analog of the Jacobian with special random but weight independent diagonal matrices, the case well known in random matrix theory. The claim was rigorously proved in \cite{Pa-Sl:21} for a quite general class of weights and biases with i.i.d. (including Gaussian) entries by using a version of the techniques of random matrix theory. In this paper we use another version of the techniques to justify the claim for random Haar distributed weight matrices and Gaussian biases.
The heterogeneity of treatment effect lies at the heart of precision medicine. Randomized controlled trials are gold-standard for treatment effect estimation but are typically underpowered for heterogeneous effects. While large observational studies have high predictive power but are often confounded due to lack of randomization of treatment. We show that the observational study, even subject to hidden confounding, may empower trials in estimating the heterogeneity of treatment effect using the notion of confounding function. The confounding function summarizes the impact of unmeasured confounders on the difference in the potential outcomes between the treated and untreated groups accounting for the observed covariates, which is unidentifiable based only on the observational study. Coupling the randomized trial and observational study, we show that the heterogeneity of treatment effect and confounding function are nonparametrically identifiable. We then derive the semiparametric efficient scores and the rate-doubly robust integrative estimators of the heterogeneity of treatment effect and confounding function under parametric structural models. We clarify the conditions under which the integrative estimator of the heterogeneity of treatment effect is strictly more efficient than the trial estimator. We illustrate the integrative estimators via simulation and an application.
We study regression discontinuity designs in which many covariates, possibly much more than the number of observations, are available. We consider a two-step algorithm which first selects the set of covariates to be used through a localized Lasso-type procedure, and then, in a second step, estimates the treatment effect by including the selected covariates into the usual local linear estimator. We provide an in-depth analysis of the algorithm's theoretical properties, showing that, under an approximate sparsity condition, the resulting estimator is asymptotically normal, with asymptotic bias and variance that are conceptually similar to those obtained in low-dimensional settings. Bandwidth selection and inference can be carried out using standard methods. We also provide simulations and an empirical application.
We address the discretization of two-phase Darcy flows in a fractured and deformable porous medium, including frictional contact between the matrix-fracture interfaces. Fractures are described as a network of planar surfaces leading to the so-called mixed- or hybrid-dimensional models. Small displacements and a linear elastic behavior are considered for the matrix. Phase pressures are supposed to be discontinuous at matrix-fracture interfaces, as they provide a better accuracy than continuous pressure models even for high fracture permeabilities. The general gradient discretization framework is employed for the numerical analysis, allowing for a generic stability analysis and including several conforming and nonconforming discretizations. We establish energy estimates for the discretization, and prove existence of a solution. To simulate the coupled model, we employ a Two-Point Flux Approximation (TPFA) finite volume scheme for the flow and second-order ($\mathbb P_2$) finite elements for the mechanical displacement coupled with face-wise constant ($\mathbb P_0$) Lagrange multipliers on fractures, representing normal and tangential stresses, to discretize the frictional contact conditions. This choice allows to circumvent possible singularities at tips, corners, and intersections between fractures, and provides a local expression of the contact conditions. We present numerical simulations of two benchmark examples and one realistic test case based on a drying model in a radioactive waste geological storage structure.
We propose a new method for multivariate response regression and covariance estimation when elements of the response vector are of mixed types, for example some continuous and some discrete. Our method is based on a model which assumes the observable mixed-type response vector is connected to a latent multivariate normal response linear regression through a link function. We explore the properties of this model and show its parameters are identifiable under reasonable conditions. We impose no parametric restrictions on the covariance of the latent normal other than positive definiteness, thereby avoiding assumptions about unobservable variables which can be difficult to verify in practice. To accommodate this generality, we propose a novel algorithm for approximate maximum likelihood estimation that works "off-the-shelf" with many different combinations of response types, and which scales well in the dimension of the response vector. Our method typically gives better predictions and parameter estimates than fitting separate models for the different response types and allows for approximate likelihood ratio testing of relevant hypotheses such as independence of responses. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated in simulations; and one biomedical and one genomic data example.
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
Intersection over Union (IoU) is the most popular evaluation metric used in the object detection benchmarks. However, there is a gap between optimizing the commonly used distance losses for regressing the parameters of a bounding box and maximizing this metric value. The optimal objective for a metric is the metric itself. In the case of axis-aligned 2D bounding boxes, it can be shown that $IoU$ can be directly used as a regression loss. However, $IoU$ has a plateau making it infeasible to optimize in the case of non-overlapping bounding boxes. In this paper, we address the weaknesses of $IoU$ by introducing a generalized version as both a new loss and a new metric. By incorporating this generalized $IoU$ ($GIoU$) as a loss into the state-of-the art object detection frameworks, we show a consistent improvement on their performance using both the standard, $IoU$ based, and new, $GIoU$ based, performance measures on popular object detection benchmarks such as PASCAL VOC and MS COCO.
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