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Nearest-neighbor methods have become popular in statistics and play a key role in statistical learning. Important decisions in nearest-neighbor methods concern the variables to use (when many potential candidates exist) and how to measure the dissimilarity between units. The first decision depends on the scope of the application while second depends mainly on the type of variables. Unfortunately, relatively few options permit to handle mixed-type variables, a situation frequently encountered in practical applications. The most popular dissimilarity for mixed-type variables is derived as the complement to one of the Gower's similarity coefficient. It is appealing because ranges between 0 and 1, being an average of the scaled dissimilarities calculated variable by variable, handles missing values and allows for a user-defined weighting scheme when averaging dissimilarities. The discussion on the weighting schemes is sometimes misleading since it often ignores that the unweighted "standard" setting hides an unbalanced contribution of the single variables to the overall dissimilarity. We address this drawback following the recent idea of introducing a weighting scheme that minimizes the differences in the correlation between each contributing dissimilarity and the resulting weighted Gower's dissimilarity. In particular, this note proposes different approaches for measuring the correlation depending on the type of variables. The performances of the proposed approaches are evaluated in simulation studies related to classification and imputation of missing values.

Lattices are architected metamaterials whose properties strongly depend on their geometrical design. The analogy between lattices and graphs enables the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) as a faster surrogate model compared to traditional methods such as finite element modelling. In this work we present a higher-order GNN model trained to predict the fourth-order stiffness tensor of periodic strut-based lattices. The key features of the model are (i) SE(3) equivariance, and (ii) consistency with the thermodynamic law of conservation of energy. We compare the model to non-equivariant models based on a number of error metrics and demonstrate the benefits of the encoded equivariance and energy conservation in terms of predictive performance and reduced training requirements.

We propose a local modification of the standard subdiffusion model by introducing the initial Fickian diffusion, which results in a multiscale diffusion model. The developed model resolves the incompatibility between the nonlocal operators in subdiffusion and the local initial conditions and thus eliminates the initial singularity of the solutions of the subdiffusion, while retaining its heavy tail behavior away from the initial time. The well-posedness of the model and high-order regularity estimates of its solutions are analyzed by resolvent estimates, based on which the numerical discretization and analysis are performed. Numerical experiments are carried out to substantiate the theoretical findings.

We consider the dynamics of an elastic continuum under large deformation but small strain. Such systems can be described by the equations of geometrically nonlinear elastodynamics in combination with the St. Venant-Kirchhoff material law. The velocity-stress formulation of the problem turns out to have a formal port-Hamiltonian structure. In contrast to the linear case, the operators of the problem are modulated by the displacement field which can be handled as a passive variable and integrated along with the velocities. A weak formulation of the problem is derived and essential boundary conditions are incorporated via Lagrange multipliers. This variational formulation explicitly encodes the transfer between kinetic and potential energy in the interior as well as across the boundary, thus leading to a global power balance and ensuring passivity of the system. The particular geometric structure of the weak formulation can be preserved under Galerkin approximation via appropriate mixed finite elements. In addition, a fully discrete power balance can be obtained by appropriate time discretization. The main properties of the system and its discretization are shown theoretically and demonstrated by numerical tests.

There are now many explainable AI methods for understanding the decisions of a machine learning model. Among these are those based on counterfactual reasoning, which involve simulating features changes and observing the impact on the prediction. This article proposes to view this simulation process as a source of creating a certain amount of knowledge that can be stored to be used, later, in different ways. This process is illustrated in the additive model and, more specifically, in the case of the naive Bayes classifier, whose interesting properties for this purpose are shown.

A discrete spatial lattice can be cast as a network structure over which spatially-correlated outcomes are observed. A second network structure may also capture similarities among measured features, when such information is available. Incorporating the network structures when analyzing such doubly-structured data can improve predictive power, and lead to better identification of important features in the data-generating process. Motivated by applications in spatial disease mapping, we develop a new doubly regularized regression framework to incorporate these network structures for analyzing high-dimensional datasets. Our estimators can easily be implemented with standard convex optimization algorithms. In addition, we describe a procedure to obtain asymptotically valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for our model parameters. We show empirically that our framework provides improved predictive accuracy and inferential power compared to existing high-dimensional spatial methods. These advantages hold given fully accurate network information, and also with networks which are partially misspecified or uninformative. The application of the proposed method to modeling COVID-19 mortality data suggests that it can improve prediction of deaths beyond standard spatial models, and that it selects relevant covariates more often.

We propose a novel algorithm for the support estimation of partially known Gaussian graphical models that incorporates prior information about the underlying graph. In contrast to classical approaches that provide a point estimate based on a maximum likelihood or a maximum a posteriori criterion using (simple) priors on the precision matrix, we consider a prior on the graph and rely on annealed Langevin diffusion to generate samples from the posterior distribution. Since the Langevin sampler requires access to the score function of the underlying graph prior, we use graph neural networks to effectively estimate the score from a graph dataset (either available beforehand or generated from a known distribution). Numerical experiments demonstrate the benefits of our approach.

We determine the material parameters in the relaxed micromorphic generalized continuum model for a given periodic microstructure in this work. This is achieved through a least squares fitting of the total energy of the relaxed micromorphic homogeneous continuum to the total energy of the fully-resolved heterogeneous microstructure, governed by classical linear elasticity. The relaxed micromorphic model is a generalized continuum that utilizes the $\Curl$ of a micro-distortion field instead of its full gradient as in the classical micromorphic theory, leading to several advantages and differences. The most crucial advantage is that it operates between two well-defined scales. These scales are determined by linear elasticity with microscopic and macroscopic elasticity tensors, which respectively bound the stiffness of the relaxed micromorphic continuum from above and below. While the macroscopic elasticity tensor is established a priori through standard periodic first-order homogenization, the microscopic elasticity tensor remains to be determined. Additionally, the characteristic length parameter, associated with curvature measurement, controls the transition between the micro- and macro-scales. Both the microscopic elasticity tensor and the characteristic length parameter are here determined using a computational approach based on the least squares fitting of energies. This process involves the consideration of an adequate number of quadratic deformation modes and different specimen sizes. We conduct a comparative analysis between the least square fitting results of the relaxed micromorphic model, the fitting of a skew-symmetric micro-distortion field (Cosserat-micropolar model), and the fitting of the classical micromorphic model with two different formulations for the curvature...

We study the problem of parameter estimation for large exchangeable interacting particle systems when a sample of discrete observations from a single particle is known. We propose a novel method based on martingale estimating functions constructed by employing the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the generator of the mean field limit, where the law of the process is replaced by the (unique) invariant measure of the mean field dynamics. We then prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal when the number of observations and the number of particles tend to infinity, and we provide a rate of convergence towards the exact value of the parameters. Finally, we present several numerical experiments which show the accuracy of our estimator and corroborate our theoretical findings, even in the case the mean field dynamics exhibit more than one steady states.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.