Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has developed rapidly from its infancy to a useful tool for practitioners. However, models with more than a handful of parameters still generally remain a challenge for the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) based inference. To advance the possibilities for performing likelihood-free inference in higher dimensional parameter spaces, we introduce an extension of the popular Bayesian optimisation based approach to approximate discrepancy functions in a probabilistic manner which lends itself to an efficient exploration of the parameter space. Our approach achieves computational scalability for higher dimensional parameter spaces by using separate acquisition functions and discrepancies for each parameter. The efficient additive acquisition structure is combined with exponentiated loss -likelihood to provide a misspecification-robust characterisation of the marginal posterior distribution for all model parameters. The method successfully performs computationally efficient inference in a 100-dimensional space on canonical examples and compares favourably to existing modularised ABC methods. We further illustrate the potential of this approach by fitting a bacterial transmission dynamics model to a real data set, which provides biologically coherent results on strain competition in a 30-dimensional parameter space.
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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is an important tool for the simulation of the cardiovascular function and dysfunction. Due to the complexity of the anatomy, the transitional regime of blood flow in the heart, and the strong mutual influence between the flow and the physical processes involved in the heart function, the development of accurate and efficient CFD solvers for cardiovascular flows is still a challenging task. In this paper we present lifex-cfd: an open-source CFD solver for cardiovascular simulations based on the lifex finite element library, written in modern C++ and exploiting distributed memory parallelism. We model blood flow in both physiological and pathological conditions via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, accounting for moving cardiac valves, moving domains, and transition-to-turbulence regimes. In this paper, we provide an overview of the underlying mathematical formulation, numerical discretization, implementation details and instructions for use of lifex-cfd. The code has been verified through rigorous convergence analyses, and we show its almost ideal parallel speedup. We demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of the numerical methods implemented through a series of idealized and patient-specific vascular and cardiac simulations, in different physiological flow regimes. The lifex-cfd source code is available under the LGPLv3 license, to ensure its accessibility and transparency to the scientific community, and to facilitate collaboration and further developments.
Here we consider a problem of multiple measurement vector (MMV) compressed sensing with multiple signal sources. The observation model is motivated by the application of {\em unsourced random access} in wireless cell-free MIMO (multiple-input-multiple-output) networks. We present a novel (and rigorous) high-dimensional analysis of the AMP (approximate message passing) algorithm devised for the model. As the system dimensions in the order, say $\mathcal O(L)$, tend to infinity, we show that the empirical dynamical order parameters -- describing the dynamics of the AMP -- converge to deterministic limits (described by a state-evolution equation) with the convergence rate $\mathcal O(L^{-\frac 1 2})$. Furthermore, we have shown the asymptotic consistency of the AMP analysis with the replica-symmetric calculation of the static problem. In addition, we provide some interesting aspects on the unsourced random access (or initial access) for cell-free systems, which is the application motivating the algorithm.
In this paper, we introduce a new metric, named Penalty upon Decision (PuD), for measuring the impact of communication delays and state changes at the source on a remote decision maker. Specifically, the metric quantifies the performance degradation at the decision maker's side due to delayed, erroneous, and (possibly) missed decisions. We clarify the rationale for the metric and derive closed-form expressions for its average in M/GI/1 and M/GI/1/1 with blocking settings. Numerical results are then presented to support our expressions and to compare the infinite and zero buffer regimes. Interestingly, comparing these two settings sheds light on a buffer length design challenge that is essential to minimize the average PuD.
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range dependent non-stationary and nonlinear time series can be well approximated globally by a white-noise-driven auto-regressive (AR) process of slowly diverging order. To our best knowledge, it is the first time such a structural approximation result is established for general classes of non-stationary time series. A high dimensional $\mathcal{L}^2$ test and an associated multiplier bootstrap procedure are proposed for the inference of the AR approximation coefficients. In particular, an adaptive stability test is proposed to check whether the AR approximation coefficients are time-varying, a frequently-encountered question for practitioners and researchers of time series. As an application, globally optimal short-term forecasting theory and methodology for a wide class of locally stationary time series are established via the method of sieves.
Standard Bayesian learning is known to have suboptimal generalization capabilities under misspecification and in the presence of outliers. PAC-Bayes theory demonstrates that the free energy criterion minimized by Bayesian learning is a bound on the generalization error for Gibbs predictors (i.e., for single models drawn at random from the posterior) under the assumption of sampling distributions uncontaminated by outliers. This viewpoint provides a justification for the limitations of Bayesian learning when the model is misspecified, requiring ensembling, and when data is affected by outliers. In recent work, PAC-Bayes bounds -- referred to as PAC$^m$ -- were derived to introduce free energy metrics that account for the performance of ensemble predictors, obtaining enhanced performance under misspecification. This work presents a novel robust free energy criterion that combines the generalized logarithm score function with PAC$^m$ ensemble bounds. The proposed free energy training criterion produces predictive distributions that are able to concurrently counteract the detrimental effects of misspecification -- with respect to both likelihood and prior distribution -- and outliers.
Polarization-adjusted convolutional (PAC) codes can approach the theoretical bound for block error rate (BLER) performance at short-to-medium codeword length. PAC codes have excellent BLER performance using Monte Carlo (MC) rate-profiles and Weighted Sum (WS) rate-profiles, but the BLER performances of the constructed codes still fall away from the dispersion bound at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). This paper proposes a List-Search (LS) construction method for PAC codes, which considers the influence of weight spectrum on BLER performance and the condition that sequence decoding for PAC codes having a finite mean computational complexity. The proposed construction method using LS can reduce the number of minimum weight codewords of PAC codes. The BLER performance of the constructed codes is better than that of the constructed codes using MC rate-profiles or WS rate-profiles, and can approach the dispersion bound at high SNR. Moreover, the BLER performance of successive cancellation list (SCL) decoding PAC codes using LS rate-profiles can approach the theoretical bound, but SCL decoding requires a large number of sorting operations. To reduce the number of sorting operations, a path-splitting critical sets (PSCS) construction method is proposed. The PSCS obtained by this method are the information bits subset that have the greatest influence on the number of minimum weight codewords. The simulation results show that this method can significantly reduce the number of sorting operations during SCL-type decoding.
Customer churn describes terminating a relationship with a business or reducing customer engagement over a specific period. Customer acquisition cost can be five to six times that of customer retention, hence investing in customers with churn risk is wise. Causal analysis of the churn model can predict whether a customer will churn in the foreseeable future and identify effects and possible causes for churn. In general, this study presents a conceptual framework to discover the confounding features that correlate with independent variables and are causally related to those dependent variables that impact churn. We combine different algorithms including the SMOTE, ensemble ANN, and Bayesian networks to address churn prediction problems on a massive and high-dimensional finance data that is usually generated in financial institutions due to employing interval-based features used in Customer Relationship Management systems. The effects of the curse and blessing of dimensionality assessed by utilising the Recursive Feature Elimination method to overcome the high dimension feature space problem. Moreover, a causal discovery performed to find possible interpretation methods to describe cause probabilities that lead to customer churn. Evaluation metrics on validation data confirm the random forest and our ensemble ANN model, with %86 accuracy, outperformed other approaches. Causal analysis results confirm that some independent causal variables representing the level of super guarantee contribution, account growth, and account balance amount were identified as confounding variables that cause customer churn with a high degree of belief. This article provides a real-world customer churn analysis from current status inference to future directions in local superannuation funds.
Learning effective high-order feature interactions is very crucial in the CTR prediction task. However, it is very time-consuming to calculate high-order feature interactions with massive features in online e-commerce platforms. Most existing methods manually design a maximal order and further filter out the useless interactions from them. Although they reduce the high computational costs caused by the exponential growth of high-order feature combinations, they still suffer from the degradation of model capability due to the suboptimal learning of the restricted feature orders. The solution to maintain the model capability and meanwhile keep it efficient is a technical challenge, which has not been adequately addressed. To address this issue, we propose an adaptive feature interaction learning model, named as EulerNet, in which the feature interactions are learned in a complex vector space by conducting space mapping according to Euler's formula. EulerNet converts the exponential powers of feature interactions into simple linear combinations of the modulus and phase of the complex features, making it possible to adaptively learn the high-order feature interactions in an efficient way. Furthermore, EulerNet incorporates the implicit and explicit feature interactions into a unified architecture, which achieves the mutual enhancement and largely boosts the model capabilities. Such a network can be fully learned from data, with no need of pre-designed form or order for feature interactions. Extensive experiments conducted on three public datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach. Our code is available at: //github.com/RUCAIBox/EulerNet.
The growing energy and performance costs of deep learning have driven the community to reduce the size of neural networks by selectively pruning components. Similarly to their biological counterparts, sparse networks generalize just as well, if not better than, the original dense networks. Sparsity can reduce the memory footprint of regular networks to fit mobile devices, as well as shorten training time for ever growing networks. In this paper, we survey prior work on sparsity in deep learning and provide an extensive tutorial of sparsification for both inference and training. We describe approaches to remove and add elements of neural networks, different training strategies to achieve model sparsity, and mechanisms to exploit sparsity in practice. Our work distills ideas from more than 300 research papers and provides guidance to practitioners who wish to utilize sparsity today, as well as to researchers whose goal is to push the frontier forward. We include the necessary background on mathematical methods in sparsification, describe phenomena such as early structure adaptation, the intricate relations between sparsity and the training process, and show techniques for achieving acceleration on real hardware. We also define a metric of pruned parameter efficiency that could serve as a baseline for comparison of different sparse networks. We close by speculating on how sparsity can improve future workloads and outline major open problems in the field.
Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.
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