Research in NLP is often supported by experimental results, and improved reporting of such results can lead to better understanding and more reproducible science. In this paper we analyze three statistical estimators for expected validation performance, a tool used for reporting performance (e.g., accuracy) as a function of computational budget (e.g., number of hyperparameter tuning experiments). Where previous work analyzing such estimators focused on the bias, we also examine the variance and mean squared error (MSE). In both synthetic and realistic scenarios, we evaluate three estimators and find the unbiased estimator has the highest variance, and the estimator with the smallest variance has the largest bias; the estimator with the smallest MSE strikes a balance between bias and variance, displaying a classic bias-variance tradeoff. We use expected validation performance to compare between different models, and analyze how frequently each estimator leads to drawing incorrect conclusions about which of two models performs best. We find that the two biased estimators lead to the fewest incorrect conclusions, which hints at the importance of minimizing variance and MSE.
相關內容
In statistical learning and analysis from shared data, which is increasingly widely adopted in platforms such as federated learning and meta-learning, there are two major concerns: privacy and robustness. Each participating individual should be able to contribute without the fear of leaking one's sensitive information. At the same time, the system should be robust in the presence of malicious participants inserting corrupted data. Recent algorithmic advances in learning from shared data focus on either one of these threats, leaving the system vulnerable to the other. We bridge this gap for the canonical problem of estimating the mean from i.i.d. samples. We introduce PRIME, which is the first efficient algorithm that achieves both privacy and robustness for a wide range of distributions. We further complement this result with a novel exponential time algorithm that improves the sample complexity of PRIME, achieving a near-optimal guarantee and matching a known lower bound for (non-robust) private mean estimation. This proves that there is no extra statistical cost to simultaneously guaranteeing privacy and robustness.
Accurate value estimates are important for off-policy reinforcement learning. Algorithms based on temporal difference learning typically are prone to an over- or underestimation bias building up over time. In this paper, we propose a general method called Adaptively Calibrated Critics (ACC) that uses the most recent high variance but unbiased on-policy rollouts to alleviate the bias of the low variance temporal difference targets. We apply ACC to Truncated Quantile Critics, which is an algorithm for continuous control that allows regulation of the bias with a hyperparameter tuned per environment. The resulting algorithm adaptively adjusts the parameter during training rendering hyperparameter search unnecessary and sets a new state of the art on the OpenAI gym continuous control benchmark among all algorithms that do not tune hyperparameters for each environment. Additionally, we demonstrate that ACC is quite general by further applying it to TD3 and showing an improved performance also in this setting.
This paper considers a novel multi-agent linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise and general consensus-type interaction, in which each agent evolves according to its local stochastic approximation process which depends on the information from its neighbors. The interconnection structure among the agents is described by a time-varying directed graph. While the convergence of consensus-based stochastic approximation algorithms when the interconnection among the agents is described by doubly stochastic matrices (at least in expectation) has been studied, less is known about the case when the interconnection matrix is simply stochastic. For any uniformly strongly connected graph sequences whose associated interaction matrices are stochastic, the paper derives finite-time bounds on the mean-square error, defined as the deviation of the output of the algorithm from the unique equilibrium point of the associated ordinary differential equation. For the case of interconnection matrices being stochastic, the equilibrium point can be any unspecified convex combination of the local equilibria of all the agents in the absence of communication. Both the cases with constant and time-varying step-sizes are considered. In the case when the convex combination is required to be a straight average and interaction between any pair of neighboring agents may be uni-directional, so that doubly stochastic matrices cannot be implemented in a distributed manner, the paper proposes a push-sum-type distributed stochastic approximation algorithm and provides its finite-time bound for the time-varying step-size case by leveraging the analysis for the consensus-type algorithm with stochastic matrices and developing novel properties of the push-sum algorithm.
For integers $d \geq 2$ and $k \geq d+1$, a $k$-hole in a set $S$ of points in general position in $\mathbb{R}^d$ is a $k$-tuple of points from $S$ in convex position such that the interior of their convex hull does not contain any point from $S$. For a convex body $K \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ of unit $d$-dimensional volume, we study the expected number $EH^K_{d,k}(n)$ of $k$-holes in a set of $n$ points drawn uniformly and independently at random from $K$. We prove an asymptotically tight lower bound on $EH^K_{d,k}(n)$ by showing that, for all fixed integers $d \geq 2$ and $k\geq d+1$, the number $EH_{d,k}^K(n)$ is at least $\Omega(n^d)$. For some small holes, we even determine the leading constant $\lim_{n \to \infty}n^{-d}EH^K_{d,k}(n)$ exactly. We improve the currently best known lower bound on $\lim_{n \to \infty}n^{-d}EH^K_{d,d+1}(n)$ by Reitzner and Temesvari (2019). In the plane, we show that the constant $\lim_{n \to \infty}n^{-2}EH^K_{2,k}(n)$ is independent of $K$ for every fixed $k \geq 3$ and we compute it exactly for $k=4$, improving earlier estimates by Fabila-Monroy, Huemer, and Mitsche (2015) and by the authors (2020).
Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as the commonly employed softmax is capable of representing any categorical distribution. In regression, however, restrictive assumptions on the type of continuous distribution to be realized are typically placed, like the dominant choice of training via mean-squared error and its underlying Gaussianity assumption. Recently, modelling advances allow to be agnostic to the type of continuous distribution to be modelled, granting regression the flexibility of classification models. While past studies stress the benefit of such flexible regression models in terms of performance, here we study the effect of the model choice on uncertainty estimation. We highlight that under model misspecification, aleatoric uncertainty is not properly captured, and that a Bayesian treatment of a misspecified model leads to unreliable epistemic uncertainty estimates. Overall, our study provides an overview on how modelling choices in regression may influence uncertainty estimation and thus any downstream decision making process.
Heatmap-based methods dominate in the field of human pose estimation by modelling the output distribution through likelihood heatmaps. In contrast, regression-based methods are more efficient but suffer from inferior performance. In this work, we explore maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to develop an efficient and effective regression-based methods. From the perspective of MLE, adopting different regression losses is making different assumptions about the output density function. A density function closer to the true distribution leads to a better regression performance. In light of this, we propose a novel regression paradigm with Residual Log-likelihood Estimation (RLE) to capture the underlying output distribution. Concretely, RLE learns the change of the distribution instead of the unreferenced underlying distribution to facilitate the training process. With the proposed reparameterization design, our method is compatible with off-the-shelf flow models. The proposed method is effective, efficient and flexible. We show its potential in various human pose estimation tasks with comprehensive experiments. Compared to the conventional regression paradigm, regression with RLE bring 12.4 mAP improvement on MSCOCO without any test-time overhead. Moreover, for the first time, especially on multi-person pose estimation, our regression method is superior to the heatmap-based methods. Our code is available at //github.com/Jeff-sjtu/res-loglikelihood-regression
We address the question of characterizing and finding optimal representations for supervised learning. Traditionally, this question has been tackled using the Information Bottleneck, which compresses the inputs while retaining information about the targets, in a decoder-agnostic fashion. In machine learning, however, our goal is not compression but rather generalization, which is intimately linked to the predictive family or decoder of interest (e.g. linear classifier). We propose the Decodable Information Bottleneck (DIB) that considers information retention and compression from the perspective of the desired predictive family. As a result, DIB gives rise to representations that are optimal in terms of expected test performance and can be estimated with guarantees. Empirically, we show that the framework can be used to enforce a small generalization gap on downstream classifiers and to predict the generalization ability of neural networks.
This is an official pytorch implementation of Deep High-Resolution Representation Learning for Human Pose Estimation. In this work, we are interested in the human pose estimation problem with a focus on learning reliable high-resolution representations. Most existing methods recover high-resolution representations from low-resolution representations produced by a high-to-low resolution network. Instead, our proposed network maintains high-resolution representations through the whole process. We start from a high-resolution subnetwork as the first stage, gradually add high-to-low resolution subnetworks one by one to form more stages, and connect the mutli-resolution subnetworks in parallel. We conduct repeated multi-scale fusions such that each of the high-to-low resolution representations receives information from other parallel representations over and over, leading to rich high-resolution representations. As a result, the predicted keypoint heatmap is potentially more accurate and spatially more precise. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our network through the superior pose estimation results over two benchmark datasets: the COCO keypoint detection dataset and the MPII Human Pose dataset. The code and models have been publicly available at \url{//github.com/leoxiaobin/deep-high-resolution-net.pytorch}.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191