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We consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function using time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO). Here, the key challenge is the exploration-exploitation trade-off under time variations. Current approaches to TVBO require prior knowledge of a constant rate of change. However, in practice, the rate of change is usually unknown. We propose an event-triggered algorithm, ET-GP-UCB, that treats the optimization problem as static until it detects changes in the objective function online and then resets the dataset. This allows the algorithm to adapt to realized temporal changes without the need for prior knowledge. The event-trigger is based on probabilistic uniform error bounds used in Gaussian process regression. We provide regret bounds for ET-GP-UCB and show in numerical experiments that it outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on synthetic and real-world data. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that ET-GP-UCB is readily applicable to various settings without tuning hyperparameters.

Theoretical studies on transfer learning or domain adaptation have so far focused on situations with a known hypothesis class or model; however in practice, some amount of model selection is usually involved, often appearing under the umbrella term of hyperparameter-tuning: for example, one may think of the problem of tuning for the right neural network architecture towards a target task, while leveraging data from a related source task. Now, in addition to the usual tradeoffs on approximation vs estimation errors involved in model selection, this problem brings in a new complexity term, namely, the transfer distance between source and target distributions, which is known to vary with the choice of hypothesis class. We present a first study of this problem, focusing on classification; in particular, the analysis reveals some remarkable phenomena: adaptive rates, i.e., those achievable with no distributional information, can be arbitrarily slower than oracle rates, i.e., when given knowledge on distances.

This paper studies the problem of learning an unknown function $f$ from given data about $f$. The learning problem is to give an approximation $\hat f$ to $f$ that predicts the values of $f$ away from the data. There are numerous settings for this learning problem depending on (i) what additional information we have about $f$ (known as a model class assumption), (ii) how we measure the accuracy of how well $\hat f$ predicts $f$, (iii) what is known about the data and data sites, (iv) whether the data observations are polluted by noise. A mathematical description of the optimal performance possible (the smallest possible error of recovery) is known in the presence of a model class assumption. Under standard model class assumptions, it is shown in this paper that a near optimal $\hat f$ can be found by solving a certain discrete over-parameterized optimization problem with a penalty term. Here, near optimal means that the error is bounded by a fixed constant times the optimal error. This explains the advantage of over-parameterization which is commonly used in modern machine learning. The main results of this paper prove that over-parameterized learning with an appropriate loss function gives a near optimal approximation $\hat f$ of the function $f$ from which the data is collected. Quantitative bounds are given for how much over-parameterization needs to be employed and how the penalization needs to be scaled in order to guarantee a near optimal recovery of $f$. An extension of these results to the case where the data is polluted by additive deterministic noise is also given.

Deadlocks are one of the most notorious concurrency bugs, and significant research has focused on detecting them efficiently. Dynamic predictive analyses work by observing concurrent executions, and reason about alternative interleavings that can witness concurrency bugs. Such techniques offer scalability and sound bug reports, and have emerged as an effective approach for concurrency bug detection, such as data races. Effective dynamic deadlock prediction, however, has proven a challenging task, as no deadlock predictor currently meets the requirements of soundness, high-precision, and efficiency. In this paper, we first formally establish that this tradeoff is unavoidable, by showing that (a) sound and complete deadlock prediction is intractable, in general, and (b) even the seemingly simpler task of determining the presence of potential deadlocks, which often serve as unsound witnesses for actual predictable deadlocks, is intractable. The main contribution of this work is a new class of predictable deadlocks, called sync(hronization)-preserving deadlocks. Informally, these are deadlocks that can be predicted by reordering the observed execution while preserving the relative order of conflicting critical sections. We present two algorithms for sound deadlock prediction based on this notion. Our first algorithm SPDOffline detects all sync-preserving deadlocks, with running time that is linear per abstract deadlock pattern, a novel notion also introduced in this work. Our second algorithm SPDOnline predicts all sync-preserving deadlocks that involve two threads in a strictly online fashion, runs in overall linear time, and is better suited for a runtime monitoring setting. We implemented both our algorithms and evaluated their ability to perform offline and online deadlock-prediction on a large dataset of standard benchmarks.

We develop a practical way of addressing the Errors-In-Variables (EIV) problem in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework. We focus on the settings in which the variability of the EIV is a fraction of that of the mismeasured variables, which is typical for empirical applications. For any initial set of moment conditions our approach provides a corrected set of moment conditions that are robust to the EIV. We show that the GMM estimator based on these moments is root-n-consistent, with the standard tests and confidence intervals providing valid inference. This is true even when the EIV are so large that naive estimators (that ignore the EIV problem) may be heavily biased with the confidence intervals having 0% coverage. Our approach involves no nonparametric estimation, which is particularly important for applications with multiple covariates, and settings with multivariate, serially correlated, or non-classical EIV.

Entropic optimal transport (EOT) presents an effective and computationally viable alternative to unregularized optimal transport (OT), offering diverse applications for large-scale data analysis. In this work, we derive novel statistical bounds for empirical plug-in estimators of the EOT cost and show that their statistical performance in the entropy regularization parameter $\epsilon$ and the sample size $n$ only depends on the simpler of the two probability measures. For instance, under sufficiently smooth costs this yields the parametric rate $n^{-1/2}$ with factor $\epsilon^{-d/2}$, where $d$ is the minimum dimension of the two population measures. This confirms that empirical EOT also adheres to the lower complexity adaptation principle, a hallmark feature only recently identified for unregularized OT. As a consequence of our theory, we show that the empirical entropic Gromov-Wasserstein distance and its unregularized version for measures on Euclidean spaces also obey this principle. Additionally, we comment on computational aspects and complement our findings with Monte Carlo simulations. Our techniques employ empirical process theory and rely on a dual formulation of EOT over a single function class. Crucial to our analysis is the observation that the entropic cost-transformation of a function class does not increase its uniform metric entropy by much.

Partially-supervised instance segmentation is a task which requests segmenting objects from novel unseen categories via learning on limited seen categories with annotated masks thus eliminating demands of heavy annotation burden. The key to addressing this task is to build an effective class-agnostic mask segmentation model. Unlike previous methods that learn such models only on seen categories, in this paper, we propose a new method, named ContrastMask, which learns a mask segmentation model on both seen and unseen categories under a unified pixel-level contrastive learning framework. In this framework, annotated masks of seen categories and pseudo masks of unseen categories serve as a prior for contrastive learning, where features from the mask regions (foreground) are pulled together, and are contrasted against those from the background, and vice versa. Through this framework, feature discrimination between foreground and background is largely improved, facilitating learning of the class-agnostic mask segmentation model. Exhaustive experiments on the COCO dataset demonstrate the superiority of our method, which outperforms previous state-of-the-arts.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

In this monograph, I introduce the basic concepts of Online Learning through a modern view of Online Convex Optimization. Here, online learning refers to the framework of regret minimization under worst-case assumptions. I present first-order and second-order algorithms for online learning with convex losses, in Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings. All the algorithms are clearly presented as instantiation of Online Mirror Descent or Follow-The-Regularized-Leader and their variants. Particular attention is given to the issue of tuning the parameters of the algorithms and learning in unbounded domains, through adaptive and parameter-free online learning algorithms. Non-convex losses are dealt through convex surrogate losses and through randomization. The bandit setting is also briefly discussed, touching on the problem of adversarial and stochastic multi-armed bandits. These notes do not require prior knowledge of convex analysis and all the required mathematical tools are rigorously explained. Moreover, all the proofs have been carefully chosen to be as simple and as short as possible.

We propose a new method for event extraction (EE) task based on an imitation learning framework, specifically, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) via generative adversarial network (GAN). The GAN estimates proper rewards according to the difference between the actions committed by the expert (or ground truth) and the agent among complicated states in the environment. EE task benefits from these dynamic rewards because instances and labels yield to various extents of difficulty and the gains are expected to be diverse -- e.g., an ambiguous but correctly detected trigger or argument should receive high gains -- while the traditional RL models usually neglect such differences and pay equal attention on all instances. Moreover, our experiments also demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, without explicit feature engineering.