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This paper studies higher-order inference properties of nonparametric local polynomial regression methods under random sampling. We prove Edgeworth expansions for $t$ statistics and coverage error expansions for interval estimators that (i) hold uniformly in the data generating process, (ii) allow for the uniform kernel, and (iii) cover estimation of derivatives of the regression function. The terms of the higher-order expansions, and their associated rates as a function of the sample size and bandwidth sequence, depend on the smoothness of the population regression function, the smoothness exploited by the inference procedure, and on whether the evaluation point is in the interior or on the boundary of the support. We prove that robust bias corrected confidence intervals have the fastest coverage error decay rates in all cases, and we use our results to deliver novel, inference-optimal bandwidth selectors. The main methodological results are implemented in companion \textsf{R} and \textsf{Stata} software packages.

A common strategy to train deep neural networks (DNNs) is to use very large architectures and to train them until they (almost) achieve zero training error. Empirically observed good generalization performance on test data, even in the presence of lots of label noise, corroborate such a procedure. On the other hand, in statistical learning theory it is known that over-fitting models may lead to poor generalization properties, occurring in e.g. empirical risk minimization (ERM) over too large hypotheses classes. Inspired by this contradictory behavior, so-called interpolation methods have recently received much attention, leading to consistent and optimally learning methods for some local averaging schemes with zero training error. However, there is no theoretical analysis of interpolating ERM-like methods so far. We take a step in this direction by showing that for certain, large hypotheses classes, some interpolating ERMs enjoy very good statistical guarantees while others fail in the worst sense. Moreover, we show that the same phenomenon occurs for DNNs with zero training error and sufficiently large architectures.

High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series, but also the existence of aberrant observations, such as missing values, contaminated observations, and heavy-tailed distributions. For high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models, we introduce a unified estimation procedure that is robust to model misspecification, heavy-tailed noise contamination, and conditional heteroscedasticity. The proposed methodology enjoys both statistical optimality and computational efficiency, and can handle many popular high-dimensional models, such as sparse, reduced-rank, banded, and network-structured VAR models. With proper regularization and data truncation, the estimation convergence rates are shown to be nearly optimal under a bounded fourth moment condition. Consistency of the proposed estimators is also established under a relaxed bounded $(2+2\epsilon)$-th moment condition, for some $\epsilon\in(0,1)$, with slower convergence rates associated with $\epsilon$. The efficacy of the proposed estimation methods is demonstrated by simulation and a real example.

With the availability of high dimensional genetic biomarkers, it is of interest to identify heterogeneous effects of these predictors on patients' survival, along with proper statistical inference. Censored quantile regression has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting heterogeneous effects of covariates on survival outcomes. To our knowledge, there is little work available to draw inference on the effects of high dimensional predictors for censored quantile regression. This paper proposes a novel procedure to draw inference on all predictors within the framework of global censored quantile regression, which investigates covariate-response associations over an interval of quantile levels, instead of a few discrete values. The proposed estimator combines a sequence of low dimensional model estimates that are based on multi-sample splittings and variable selection. We show that, under some regularity conditions, the estimator is consistent and asymptotically follows a Gaussian process indexed by the quantile level. Simulation studies indicate that our procedure can properly quantify the uncertainty of the estimates in high dimensional settings. We apply our method to analyze the heterogeneous effects of SNPs residing in lung cancer pathways on patients' survival, using the Boston Lung Cancer Survival Cohort, a cancer epidemiology study on the molecular mechanism of lung cancer.

We propose a novel method for solving regression tasks using few-shot or weak supervision. At the core of our method is the fundamental observation that GANs are incredibly successful at encoding semantic information within their latent space, even in a completely unsupervised setting. For modern generative frameworks, this semantic encoding manifests as smooth, linear directions which affect image attributes in a disentangled manner. These directions have been widely used in GAN-based image editing. We show that such directions are not only linear, but that the magnitude of change induced on the respective attribute is approximately linear with respect to the distance traveled along them. By leveraging this observation, our method turns a pre-trained GAN into a regression model, using as few as two labeled samples. This enables solving regression tasks on datasets and attributes which are difficult to produce quality supervision for. Additionally, we show that the same latent-distances can be used to sort collections of images by the strength of given attributes, even in the absence of explicit supervision. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that our method can be applied across a wide range of domains, leverage multiple latent direction discovery frameworks, and achieve state-of-the-art results in few-shot and low-supervision settings, even when compared to methods designed to tackle a single task.

In this paper we introduce a simple modal logic framework to reason about the expertise of an information source. In the framework, a source is an expert on a proposition $p$ if they are able to correctly determine the truth value of $p$ in any possible world. We also consider how information may be false, but true after accounting for the lack of expertise of the source. This is relevant for modelling situations in which information sources make claims beyond their domain of expertise. We use non-standard semantics for the language based on an expertise set with certain closure properties. It turns out there is a close connection between our semantics and S5 epistemic logic, so that expertise can be expressed in terms of knowledge at all possible states. We use this connection to obtain a sound and complete axiomatisation.

In this paper, we study the properties of robust nonparametric estimation using deep neural networks for regression models with heavy tailed error distributions. We establish the non-asymptotic error bounds for a class of robust nonparametric regression estimators using deep neural networks with ReLU activation under suitable smoothness conditions on the regression function and mild conditions on the error term. In particular, we only assume that the error distribution has a finite p-th moment with p greater than one. We also show that the deep robust regression estimators are able to circumvent the curse of dimensionality when the distribution of the predictor is supported on an approximate lower-dimensional set. An important feature of our error bound is that, for ReLU neural networks with network width and network size (number of parameters) no more than the order of the square of the dimensionality d of the predictor, our excess risk bounds depend sub-linearly on d. Our assumption relaxes the exact manifold support assumption, which could be restrictive and unrealistic in practice. We also relax several crucial assumptions on the data distribution, the target regression function and the neural networks required in the recent literature. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the robust methods can significantly outperform the least squares method when the errors have heavy-tailed distributions and illustrate that the choice of loss function is important in the context of deep nonparametric regression.

In this paper we propose Fed-ensemble: a simple approach that bringsmodel ensembling to federated learning (FL). Instead of aggregating localmodels to update a single global model, Fed-ensemble uses random permutations to update a group of K models and then obtains predictions through model averaging. Fed-ensemble can be readily utilized within established FL methods and does not impose a computational overhead as it only requires one of the K models to be sent to a client in each communication round. Theoretically, we show that predictions on newdata from all K models belong to the same predictive posterior distribution under a neural tangent kernel regime. This result in turn sheds light onthe generalization advantages of model averaging. We also illustrate thatFed-ensemble has an elegant Bayesian interpretation. Empirical results show that our model has superior performance over several FL algorithms,on a wide range of data sets, and excels in heterogeneous settings often encountered in FL applications.

Data augmentation has been widely used for training deep learning systems for medical image segmentation and plays an important role in obtaining robust and transformation-invariant predictions. However, it has seldom been used at test time for segmentation and not been formulated in a consistent mathematical framework. In this paper, we first propose a theoretical formulation of test-time augmentation for deep learning in image recognition, where the prediction is obtained through estimating its expectation by Monte Carlo simulation with prior distributions of parameters in an image acquisition model that involves image transformations and noise. We then propose a novel uncertainty estimation method based on the formulated test-time augmentation. Experiments with segmentation of fetal brains and brain tumors from 2D and 3D Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) showed that 1) our test-time augmentation outperforms a single-prediction baseline and dropout-based multiple predictions, and 2) it provides a better uncertainty estimation than calculating the model-based uncertainty alone and helps to reduce overconfident incorrect predictions.

Large margin nearest neighbor (LMNN) is a metric learner which optimizes the performance of the popular $k$NN classifier. However, its resulting metric relies on pre-selected target neighbors. In this paper, we address the feasibility of LMNN's optimization constraints regarding these target points, and introduce a mathematical measure to evaluate the size of the feasible region of the optimization problem. We enhance the optimization framework of LMNN by a weighting scheme which prefers data triplets which yield a larger feasible region. This increases the chances to obtain a good metric as the solution of LMNN's problem. We evaluate the performance of the resulting feasibility-based LMNN algorithm using synthetic and real datasets. The empirical results show an improved accuracy for different types of datasets in comparison to regular LMNN.