This study proposes a method for efficient delivery of liquefied petroleum gas cylinders based on demand forecasts of gas usage. To maintain a liquefied petroleum gas service, gas providers visit each customer to check the gas meter and replace the gas cylinder depending on the remaining amount of gas. These visits can be categorized into three patterns: non-replacement visit, replacement before the customer runs out of gas, and replacement after the customer runs out of gas. The last pattern is a crucial problem in sustaining a liquefied petroleum gas service, and it must be reduced. By contrast, frequent non-replacement visits are required to prevent the customer from running out of gas, but it requires considerable effort. One of the most severe difficulties of this problem is acquiring the gas usages of each customer only by visiting. However, with the recent spread of smart sensors, the daily gas consumption of each house can be monitored without having to visit customers. Our main idea is to categorize all customers into three groups: high-risk, moderate-risk, and low-risk by focusing on an urgent need for cylinder replacement based on the demand forecast. Based on this idea, we construct an algorithm to maximize the delivery for moderate-risk customers while ensuring delivery to high-risk customers. Long-term optimal delivery planning is realized by achieving workload balancing per day. The verification experiment in Chiba prefecture in Japan showed the effectiveness of our algorithm in reducing the number of out-of-gas cylinders. Moreover, the proposed model is a new generic framework for building an optimal vehicle routing plan, consisting of a complementary algorithm, demand forecast, delivery list optimization, and delivery route optimization for realizing a long-term optimal delivery plan by setting the priority.
The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current result about the well-studied switch Markov chain is that it is rapidly mixing on P-stable degree sequences (see DOI:10.1016/j.ejc.2021.103421). The switch Markov chain does not change any degree sequence. However, there are cases where degree intervals are specified rather than a single degree sequence. (A natural scenario where this problem arises is in hypothesis testing on social networks that are only partially observed.) Rechner, Strowick, and M\"uller-Hannemann introduced in 2018 the notion of degree interval Markov chain which uses three (separately well-studied) local operations (switch, hinge-flip and toggle), and employing on degree sequence realizations where any two sequences under scrutiny have very small coordinate-wise distance. Recently Amanatidis and Kleer published a beautiful paper (arXiv:2110.09068), showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the sequences are coming from a system of very thin intervals which are centered not far from a regular degree sequence. In this paper we extend substantially their result, showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the intervals are centred at P-stable degree sequences.
Bayesian optimization is a popular method for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Yet it oftentimes struggles in high dimensions where the computation could be prohibitively heavy. To alleviate this problem, we introduce Coordinate backoff Bayesian Optimization (CobBO) with two-stage kernels. During each round, the first stage uses a simple coarse kernel that sacrifices the approximation accuracy for computational efficiency. It captures the global landscape by purposely smoothing away local fluctuations. Then, in the second stage of the same round, past observed points in the full space are projected to the selected subspace to form virtual points. These virtual points, along with the means and variances of their unknown function values estimated using the simple kernel of the first stage, are fitted to a more sophisticated kernel model in the second stage. Within the selected low dimensional subspace, the computational cost of conducting Bayesian optimization therein becomes affordable. To further enhance the performance, a sequence of consecutive observations in the same subspace are collected, which can effectively refine the approximation of the function. This refinement lasts until a stopping rule is met determining when to back off from a certain subspace and switch to another. This decoupling significantly reduces the computational burden in high dimensions, which fully leverages the observations in the whole space rather than only relying on observations in each coordinate subspace. Extensive evaluations show that CobBO finds solutions comparable to or better than other state-of-the-art methods for dimensions ranging from tens to hundreds, while reducing both the trial complexity and computational costs.
Publicly traded companies are required to submit periodic reports with eXtensive Business Reporting Language (XBRL) word-level tags. Manually tagging the reports is tedious and costly. We, therefore, introduce XBRL tagging as a new entity extraction task for the financial domain and release FiNER-139, a dataset of 1.1M sentences with gold XBRL tags. Unlike typical entity extraction datasets, FiNER-139 uses a much larger label set of 139 entity types. Most annotated tokens are numeric, with the correct tag per token depending mostly on context, rather than the token itself. We show that subword fragmentation of numeric expressions harms BERT's performance, allowing word-level BILSTMs to perform better. To improve BERT's performance, we propose two simple and effective solutions that replace numeric expressions with pseudo-tokens reflecting original token shapes and numeric magnitudes. We also experiment with FIN-BERT, an existing BERT model for the financial domain, and release our own BERT (SEC-BERT), pre-trained on financial filings, which performs best. Through data and error analysis, we finally identify possible limitations to inspire future work on XBRL tagging.
A central quest of probing is to uncover how pre-trained models encode a linguistic property within their representations. An encoding, however, might be spurious-i.e., the model might not rely on it when making predictions. In this paper, we try to find encodings that the model actually uses, introducing a usage-based probing setup. We first choose a behavioral task which cannot be solved without using the linguistic property. Then, we attempt to remove the property by intervening on the model's representations. We contend that, if an encoding is used by the model, its removal should harm the performance on the chosen behavioral task. As a case study, we focus on how BERT encodes grammatical number, and on how it uses this encoding to solve the number agreement task. Experimentally, we find that BERT relies on a linear encoding of grammatical number to produce the correct behavioral output. We also find that BERT uses a separate encoding of grammatical number for nouns and verbs. Finally, we identify in which layers information about grammatical number is transferred from a noun to its head verb.
Machine learning and computational intelligence technologies gain more and more popularity as possible solution for issues related to the power grid. One of these issues, the power flow calculation, is an iterative method to compute the voltage magnitudes of the power grid's buses from power values. Machine learning and, especially, artificial neural networks were successfully used as surrogates for the power flow calculation. Artificial neural networks highly rely on the quality and size of the training data, but this aspect of the process is apparently often neglected in the works we found. However, since the availability of high quality historical data for power grids is limited, we propose the Correlation Sampling algorithm. We show that this approach is able to cover a larger area of the sampling space compared to different random sampling algorithms from the literature and a copula-based approach, while at the same time inter-dependencies of the inputs are taken into account, which, from the other algorithms, only the copula-based approach does.
Randomized field experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the impact of software changes on customers. In the online domain, randomization has been the main tool to ensure exchangeability. However, due to the different deployment conditions and the high dependence on the surrounding environment, designing experiments for automotive software needs to consider a higher number of restricted variables to ensure conditional exchangeability. In this paper, we show how at Volvo Cars we utilize causal graphical models to design experiments and explicitly communicate the assumptions of experiments. These graphical models are used to further assess the experiment validity, compute direct and indirect causal effects, and reason on the transportability of the causal conclusions.
Approximate Policy Iteration (API) algorithms alternate between (approximate) policy evaluation and (approximate) greedification. Many different approaches have been explored for approximate policy evaluation, but less is understood about approximate greedification and what choices guarantee policy improvement. In this work, we investigate approximate greedification when reducing the KL divergence between the parameterized policy and the Boltzmann distribution over action values. In particular, we investigate the difference between the forward and reverse KL divergences, with varying degrees of entropy regularization. We show that the reverse KL has stronger policy improvement guarantees, but that reducing the forward KL can result in a worse policy. We also demonstrate, however, that a large enough reduction of the forward KL can induce improvement under additional assumptions. Empirically, we show on simple continuous-action environments that the forward KL can induce more exploration, but at the cost of a more suboptimal policy. No significant differences were observed in the discrete-action setting or on a suite of benchmark problems. Throughout, we highlight that many policy gradient methods can be seen as an instance of API, with either the forward or reverse KL for the policy update, and discuss next steps for understanding and improving our policy optimization algorithms.
Given an increasing graph property $\cal F$, the strong Avoider-Avoider $\cal F$ game is played on the edge set of a complete graph. Two players, Red and Blue, take turns in claiming previously unclaimed edges with Red going first, and the player whose graph possesses $\cal F$ first loses the game. If the property $\cal F$ is "containing a fixed graph $H$", we refer to the game as the $H$ game. We prove that Blue has a winning strategy in two strong Avoider-Avoider games, $P_4$ game and ${\cal CC}_{>3}$ game, where ${\cal CC}_{>3}$ is the property of having at least one connected component on more than three vertices. We also study a variant, the strong CAvoider-CAvoider games, with additional requirement that the graph of each of the players must stay connected throughout the game. We prove that Blue has a winning strategy in the strong CAvoider-CAvoider games $S_3$ and $P_4$, as well as in the $Cycle$ game, where the players aim at avoiding all cycles.
While the theoretical analysis of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) has made significant progress for pseudo-Boolean optimization problems in the last 25 years, only sporadic theoretical results exist on how EAs solve permutation-based problems. To overcome the lack of permutation-based benchmark problems, we propose a general way to transfer the classic pseudo-Boolean benchmarks into benchmarks defined on sets of permutations. We then conduct a rigorous runtime analysis of the permutation-based $(1+1)$ EA proposed by Scharnow, Tinnefeld, and Wegener (2004) on the analogues of the \textsc{LeadingOnes} and \textsc{Jump} benchmarks. The latter shows that, different from bit-strings, it is not only the Hamming distance that determines how difficult it is to mutate a permutation $\sigma$ into another one $\tau$, but also the precise cycle structure of $\sigma \tau^{-1}$. For this reason, we also regard the more symmetric scramble mutation operator. We observe that it not only leads to simpler proofs, but also reduces the runtime on jump functions with odd jump size by a factor of $\Theta(n)$. Finally, we show that a heavy-tailed version of the scramble operator, as in the bit-string case, leads to a speed-up of order $m^{\Theta(m)}$ on jump functions with jump size~$m$.%
In this work, we develop quantization and variable-length source codecs for the feedback links in linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) control systems. We prove that for any fixed control performance, the approaches we propose nearly achieve lower bounds on communication cost that have been established in prior work. In particular, we refine the analysis of a classical achievability approach with an eye towards more practical details. Notably, in the prior literature the source codecs used to demonstrate the (near) achievability of these lower bounds are often implicitly assumed to be time-varying. For single-input single-output (SISO) plants, we prove that it suffices to consider time-invariant quantization and source coding. This result follows from analyzing the long-term stochastic behavior of the system's quantized measurements and reconstruction errors. To our knowledge, this time-invariant achievability result is the first in the literature.