This paper studies the estimation of high-dimensional, discrete, possibly sparse, mixture models in topic models. The data consists of observed multinomial counts of $p$ words across $n$ independent documents. In topic models, the $p\times n$ expected word frequency matrix is assumed to be factorized as a $p\times K$ word-topic matrix $A$ and a $K\times n$ topic-document matrix $T$. Since columns of both matrices represent conditional probabilities belonging to probability simplices, columns of $A$ are viewed as $p$-dimensional mixture components that are common to all documents while columns of $T$ are viewed as the $K$-dimensional mixture weights that are document specific and are allowed to be sparse. The main interest is to provide sharp, finite sample, $\ell_1$-norm convergence rates for estimators of the mixture weights $T$ when $A$ is either known or unknown. For known $A$, we suggest MLE estimation of $T$. Our non-standard analysis of the MLE not only establishes its $\ell_1$ convergence rate, but reveals a remarkable property: the MLE, with no extra regularization, can be exactly sparse and contain the true zero pattern of $T$. We further show that the MLE is both minimax optimal and adaptive to the unknown sparsity in a large class of sparse topic distributions. When $A$ is unknown, we estimate $T$ by optimizing the likelihood function corresponding to a plug in, generic, estimator $\hat{A}$ of $A$. For any estimator $\hat{A}$ that satisfies carefully detailed conditions for proximity to $A$, the resulting estimator of $T$ is shown to retain the properties established for the MLE. The ambient dimensions $K$ and $p$ are allowed to grow with the sample sizes. Our application is to the estimation of 1-Wasserstein distances between document generating distributions. We propose, estimate and analyze new 1-Wasserstein distances between two probabilistic document representations.
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We present a framework for speeding up the time it takes to sample from discrete distributions $\mu$ defined over subsets of size $k$ of a ground set of $n$ elements, in the regime $k\ll n$. We show that having estimates of marginals $\mathbb{P}_{S\sim \mu}[i\in S]$, the task of sampling from $\mu$ can be reduced to sampling from distributions $\nu$ supported on size $k$ subsets of a ground set of only $n^{1-\alpha}\cdot \operatorname{poly}(k)$ elements. Here, $1/\alpha\in [1, k]$ is the parameter of entropic independence for $\mu$. Further, the sparsified distributions $\nu$ are obtained by applying a sparse (mostly $0$) external field to $\mu$, an operation that often retains algorithmic tractability of sampling from $\nu$. This phenomenon, which we dub domain sparsification, allows us to pay a one-time cost of estimating the marginals of $\mu$, and in return reduce the amortized cost needed to produce many samples from the distribution $\mu$, as is often needed in upstream tasks such as counting and inference. For a wide range of distributions where $\alpha=\Omega(1)$, our result reduces the domain size, and as a corollary, the cost-per-sample, by a $\operatorname{poly}(n)$ factor. Examples include monomers in a monomer-dimer system, non-symmetric determinantal point processes, and partition-constrained Strongly Rayleigh measures. Our work significantly extends the reach of prior work of Anari and Derezi\'nski who obtained domain sparsification for distributions with a log-concave generating polynomial (corresponding to $\alpha=1$). As a corollary of our new analysis techniques, we also obtain a less stringent requirement on the accuracy of marginal estimates even for the case of log-concave polynomials; roughly speaking, we show that constant-factor approximation is enough for domain sparsification, improving over $O(1/k)$ relative error established in prior work.
We consider the estimation of densities in multiple subpopulations, where the available sample size in each subpopulation greatly varies. This problem occurs in epidemiology, for example, where different diseases may share similar pathogenic mechanism but differ in their prevalence. Without specifying a parametric form, our proposed method pools information from the population and estimate the density in each subpopulation in a data-driven fashion. Drawing from functional data analysis, low-dimensional approximating density families in the form of exponential families are constructed from the principal modes of variation in the log-densities. Subpopulation densities are subsequently fitted in the approximating families based on likelihood principles and shrinkage. The approximating families increase in their flexibility as the number of components increases and can approximate arbitrary infinite-dimensional densities. We also derive convergence results of the density estimates with discrete observations. The proposed methods are shown to be interpretable and efficient in simulation as well as applications to electronic medical record and rainfall data.
We consider the estimation of an n-dimensional vector s from the noisy element-wise measurements of $\mathbf{s}\mathbf{s}^T$, a generic problem that arises in statistics and machine learning. We study a mismatched Bayesian inference setting, where some of the parameters are not known to the statistician. We derive the full exact analytic expression of the asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) in the large system size limit for the particular case of Gaussian priors and additive noise. From our formulas, we see that estimation is still possible in the mismatched case; and also that the minimum MSE (MMSE) can be achieved if the statistician chooses suitable parameters. Our technique relies on the asymptotics of the spherical integrals and can be applied as long as the statistician chooses a rotationally invariant prior.
We consider sparse matrix estimation where the goal is to estimate an $n\times n$ matrix from noisy observations of a small subset of its entries. We analyze the estimation error of the popularly utilized collaborative filtering algorithm for the sparse regime. Specifically, we propose a novel iterative variant of the algorithm, adapted to handle the setting of sparse observations. We establish that as long as the fraction of entries observed at random scale as $\frac{\log^{1+\kappa}(n)}{n}$ for any fixed $\kappa > 0$, the estimation error with respect to the $\max$-norm decays to $0$ as $n\to\infty$ assuming the underlying matrix of interest has constant rank $r$. Our result is robust to model mis-specification in that if the underlying matrix is approximately rank $r$, then the estimation error decays to the approximate error with respect to the $\max$-norm. In the process, we establish algorithm's ability to handle arbitrary bounded noise in the observations.
This paper addresses the task of estimating a covariance matrix under a patternless sparsity assumption. In contrast to existing approaches based on thresholding or shrinkage penalties, we propose a likelihood-based method that regularizes the distance from the covariance estimate to a symmetric sparsity set. This formulation avoids unwanted shrinkage induced by more common norm penalties and enables optimization of the resulting non-convex objective by solving a sequence of smooth, unconstrained subproblems. These subproblems are generated and solved via the proximal distance version of the majorization-minimization principle. The resulting algorithm executes rapidly, gracefully handles settings where the number of parameters exceeds the number of cases, yields a positive definite solution, and enjoys desirable convergence properties. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms competing methods by several metrics across a suite of simulated experiments. Its merits are illustrated on an international migration dataset and a classic case study on flow cytometry. Our findings suggest that the marginal and conditional dependency networks for the cell signalling data are more similar than previously concluded.
We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We show empirically that this approach outperforms generic samplers in a number of difficult settings including Ising models, Potts models, restricted Boltzmann machines, and factorial hidden Markov models. We also demonstrate the use of our improved sampler for training deep energy-based models on high dimensional discrete data. This approach outperforms variational auto-encoders and existing energy-based models. Finally, we give bounds showing that our approach is near-optimal in the class of samplers which propose local updates.
We show that for the problem of testing if a matrix $A \in F^{n \times n}$ has rank at most $d$, or requires changing an $\epsilon$-fraction of entries to have rank at most $d$, there is a non-adaptive query algorithm making $\widetilde{O}(d^2/\epsilon)$ queries. Our algorithm works for any field $F$. This improves upon the previous $O(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ bound (SODA'03), and bypasses an $\Omega(d^2/\epsilon^2)$ lower bound of (KDD'14) which holds if the algorithm is required to read a submatrix. Our algorithm is the first such algorithm which does not read a submatrix, and instead reads a carefully selected non-adaptive pattern of entries in rows and columns of $A$. We complement our algorithm with a matching query complexity lower bound for non-adaptive testers over any field. We also give tight bounds of $\widetilde{\Theta}(d^2)$ queries in the sensing model for which query access comes in the form of $\langle X_i, A\rangle:=tr(X_i^\top A)$; perhaps surprisingly these bounds do not depend on $\epsilon$. We next develop a novel property testing framework for testing numerical properties of a real-valued matrix $A$ more generally, which includes the stable rank, Schatten-$p$ norms, and SVD entropy. Specifically, we propose a bounded entry model, where $A$ is required to have entries bounded by $1$ in absolute value. We give upper and lower bounds for a wide range of problems in this model, and discuss connections to the sensing model above.
We propose a new method of estimation in topic models, that is not a variation on the existing simplex finding algorithms, and that estimates the number of topics K from the observed data. We derive new finite sample minimax lower bounds for the estimation of A, as well as new upper bounds for our proposed estimator. We describe the scenarios where our estimator is minimax adaptive. Our finite sample analysis is valid for any number of documents (n), individual document length (N_i), dictionary size (p) and number of topics (K), and both p and K are allowed to increase with n, a situation not handled well by previous analyses. We complement our theoretical results with a detailed simulation study. We illustrate that the new algorithm is faster and more accurate than the current ones, although we start out with a computational and theoretical disadvantage of not knowing the correct number of topics K, while we provide the competing methods with the correct value in our simulations.
Robust estimation is much more challenging in high dimensions than it is in one dimension: Most techniques either lead to intractable optimization problems or estimators that can tolerate only a tiny fraction of errors. Recent work in theoretical computer science has shown that, in appropriate distributional models, it is possible to robustly estimate the mean and covariance with polynomial time algorithms that can tolerate a constant fraction of corruptions, independent of the dimension. However, the sample and time complexity of these algorithms is prohibitively large for high-dimensional applications. In this work, we address both of these issues by establishing sample complexity bounds that are optimal, up to logarithmic factors, as well as giving various refinements that allow the algorithms to tolerate a much larger fraction of corruptions. Finally, we show on both synthetic and real data that our algorithms have state-of-the-art performance and suddenly make high-dimensional robust estimation a realistic possibility.
In this paper, we develop the continuous time dynamic topic model (cDTM). The cDTM is a dynamic topic model that uses Brownian motion to model the latent topics through a sequential collection of documents, where a "topic" is a pattern of word use that we expect to evolve over the course of the collection. We derive an efficient variational approximate inference algorithm that takes advantage of the sparsity of observations in text, a property that lets us easily handle many time points. In contrast to the cDTM, the original discrete-time dynamic topic model (dDTM) requires that time be discretized. Moreover, the complexity of variational inference for the dDTM grows quickly as time granularity increases, a drawback which limits fine-grained discretization. We demonstrate the cDTM on two news corpora, reporting both predictive perplexity and the novel task of time stamp prediction.
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