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We study data-driven assistants that provide congestion forecasts to users of shared facilities (roads, cafeterias, etc.), to support coordination between them, and increase efficiency of such collective systems. Key questions are: (1) when and how much can (accurate) predictions help for coordination, and (2) which assistant algorithms reach optimal predictions? First we lay conceptual ground for this setting where user preferences are a priori unknown and predictions influence outcomes. Addressing (1), we establish conditions under which self-fulfilling prophecies, i.e., "perfect" (probabilistic) predictions of what will happen, solve the coordination problem in the game-theoretic sense of selecting a Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE). Next we prove that such prophecies exist even in large-scale settings where only aggregated statistics about users are available. This entails a new (nonatomic) BNE existence result. Addressing (2), we propose two assistant algorithms that sequentially learn from users' reactions, together with optimality/convergence guarantees. We validate one of them in a large real-world experiment.

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博弈論(Game theory)有時也稱為對策論,或者賽局理論,應用數學的一個分支,目前在生物學、經濟學、國際關系、計算機科學、政治學、軍事戰略和其他很多學科都有廣泛的應用。主要研究公式化了的激勵結構(游戲或者博弈)間的相互作用。是研究具有斗爭或競爭性質現象的數學理論和方法。也是運籌學的一個重要學科。

In order to enable autonomous vehicles (AV) to navigate busy traffic situations, in recent years there has been a focus on game-theoretic models for strategic behavior planning in AVs. However, a lack of common taxonomy impedes a broader understanding of the strategies the models generate as well as the development of safety specification to identity what strategies are safe for an AV to execute. Based on common patterns of interaction in traffic conflicts, we develop a taxonomy for strategic interactions along the dimensions of agents' initial response to right-of-way rules and subsequent response to other agents' behavior. Furthermore, we demonstrate a process of automatic mapping of strategies generated by a strategic planner to the categories in the taxonomy, and based on vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian interaction simulation, we evaluate two popular solution concepts used in strategic planning in AVs, QLk and Subgame perfect $\epsilon$-Nash Equilibrium, with respect to those categories.

Privacy preference signals allow users to express preferences over how their personal data is processed. These signals become important in determining privacy outcomes when they reference an enforceable legal basis, as is the case with recent signals such as the Global Privacy Control and the Transparency & Consent Framework. However, the coexistence of multiple privacy preference signals creates ambiguity as users may transmit more than one signal. This paper collects evidence about ambiguity flowing from the aforementioned two signals and the historic Do Not Track signal. We provide the first empirical evidence that ambiguous signals are sent by web users in the wild. We also show that preferences stored in the browser are reliable predictors of privacy preferences expressed in web dialogs. Finally, we provide the first evidence that popular cookie dialogs are blocked by the majority of users who adopted the Do Not Track and Global Privacy Control standards. These empirical results inform forthcoming legal debates about how to interpret privacy preference signals.

Wheelchair-mounted robotic arms (and other assistive robots) should help their users perform everyday tasks. One way robots can provide this assistance is shared autonomy. Within shared autonomy, both the human and robot maintain control over the robot's motion: as the robot becomes confident it understands what the human wants, it increasingly intervenes to automate the task. But how does the robot know what tasks the human may want to perform in the first place? Today's shared autonomy approaches often rely on prior knowledge: for example, the robot must know the set of possible human goals a priori. In the long-term, however, this prior knowledge will inevitably break down -- sooner or later the human will reach for a goal that the robot did not expect. In this paper we propose a learning approach to shared autonomy that takes advantage of repeated interactions. Learning to assist humans would be impossible if they performed completely different tasks at every interaction: but our insight is that users living with physical disabilities repeat important tasks on a daily basis (e.g., opening the fridge, making coffee, and having dinner). We introduce an algorithm that exploits these repeated interactions to recognize the human's task, replicate similar demonstrations, and return control when unsure. As the human repeatedly works with this robot, our approach continually learns to assist tasks that were never specified beforehand: these tasks include both discrete goals (e.g., reaching a cup) and continuous skills (e.g., opening a drawer). Across simulations and an in-person user study, we demonstrate that robots leveraging our approach match existing shared autonomy methods for known goals, and outperform imitation learning baselines on new tasks. See videos here: //youtu.be/Plh4t3wQeIA

Most algorithmic studies on multi-agent information design so far have focused on the restricted situation with no inter-agent externalities; a few exceptions investigated special game classes such as zero-sum games and second-price auctions but have all focused only on optimal public signaling and exhibit sweepingly negative results. This paper initiates the algorithmic information design of both \emph{public} and \emph{private} signaling in a fundamental class of games with negative externalities, i.e., atomic singleton congestion games, with wide application in today's digital economy, machine scheduling, routing, etc. For both public and private signaling, we show that the optimal information design can be efficiently computed when the number of resources is a constant. To our knowledge, this is the first set of computationally efficient algorithms for information design in succinctly representable many-player games. Our results hinge on novel techniques such as developing ``reduced forms'' to compactly represent players' marginal beliefs. When there are many resources, we show computational intractability results. To overcome the challenge of multiple equilibria, here we introduce a new notion of equilibrium-\emph{oblivious} NP-hardness, which rules out any possibility of computing a good signaling scheme, irrespective of the equilibrium selection rule.

The ability to perform computation on devices, such as smartphones, cars, or other nodes present at the Internet of Things leads to constraints regarding bandwidth, storage, and energy, as most of these devices are mobile and operate on batteries. Using their computational power to perform locally machine learning and analytics tasks can enable accurate and real-time predictions at the network edge. A trained machine learning model requires high accuracy towards the prediction outcome, as wrong decisions can lead to negative consequences on the efficient conclusion of applications. Most of the data sensed in these devices are contextual and personal requiring privacy-preserving without their distribution over the network. When working with these privacy-preserving data, not only the protection is important but, also, the model needs the ability to adapt to regular occurring concept drifts and data distribution changes to guarantee a high accuracy of the prediction outcome. We address the importance of personalization and generalization in edge devices to adapt to data distribution updates over continuously evolving environments. The methodology we propose relies on the principles of Federated Learning and Optimal Stopping Theory extended with a personalization component. The privacy-efficient and quality-awareness of personalization and generalization is the overarching aim of this work.

Background: The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, was first detected in the United States in January 2020. To curb the spread of the disease in mid-March, different states issued mandatory stay-at-home (SAH) orders. These nonpharmaceutical interventions were mandated based on prior experiences, such as the 1918 influenza epidemic. Hence, we decided to study the impact of restrictions on mobility on reducing COVID-19 transmission. Methods: We designed an ecological time series study with our exposure variable as Mobility patterns in the state of Maryland for March- December 2020 and our outcome variable as the COVID-19 hospitalizations for the same period. We built an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) ensemble machine learning model and regressed the lagged COVID-19 hospitalizations with Mobility volume for different regions of Maryland. Results: We found an 18% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations when mobility was increased by a factor of five, similarly a 43% increase when mobility was further increased by a factor of ten. Conclusion: The findings of our study demonstrated a positive linear relationship between mobility and the incidence of COVID-19 cases. These findings are partially consistent with other studies suggesting the benefits of mobility restrictions. Although more detailed approach is needed to precisely understand the benefits and limitations of mobility restrictions as part of a response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We consider n robots with limited visibility: each robot can observe other robots only up to a constant distance denoted as the viewing range. The robots operate in discrete rounds that are either fully synchronous (FSync) or semi-synchronized (SSync). Most previously studied formation problems in this setting seek to bring the robots closer together (e.g., Gathering or Chain-Formation). In this work, we introduce the Max-Line-Formation problem, which has a contrary goal: to arrange the robots on a straight line of maximal length. First, we prove that the problem is impossible to solve by robots with a constant sized circular viewing range. The impossibility holds under comparably strong assumptions: robots that agree on both axes of their local coordinate systems in FSync. On the positive side, we show that the problem is solvable by robots with a constant square viewing range, i.e., the robots can observe other robots that lie within a constant-sized square centered at their position. In this case, the robots need to agree on only one axis of their local coordinate systems. We derive two algorithms: the first algorithm considers oblivious robots and converges to the optimal configuration in time $\mathcal{O}(n^2 \cdot \log (n/\varepsilon))$ under the SSync scheduler. The other algorithm makes use of locally visible lights (LUMI). It is designed for the FSync scheduler and can solve the problem exactly in optimal time $\Theta(n)$. Afterward, we show that both the algorithmic and the analysis techniques can also be applied to the Gathering and Chain-Formation problem: we introduce an algorithm with a reduced viewing range for Gathering and give new and improved runtime bounds for the Chain-Formation problem.

In comparison to conventional traffic designs, shared spaces promote a more pleasant urban environment with slower motorized movement, smoother traffic, and less congestion. In the foreseeable future, shared spaces will be populated with a mixture of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and vulnerable road users (VRUs) like pedestrians and cyclists. However, a driver-less AV lacks a way to communicate with the VRUs when they have to reach an agreement of a negotiation, which brings new challenges to the safety and smoothness of the traffic. To find a feasible solution to integrating AVs seamlessly into shared-space traffic, we first identified the possible issues that the shared-space designs have not considered for the role of AVs. Then an online questionnaire was used to ask participants about how they would like a driver of the manually driving vehicle to communicate with VRUs in a shared space. We found that when the driver wanted to give some suggestions to the VRUs in a negotiation, participants thought that the communications via the driver's body behaviors were necessary. Besides, when the driver conveyed information about her/his intentions and cautions to the VRUs, participants selected different communication methods with respect to their transport modes (as a driver, pedestrian, or cyclist). These results suggest that novel eHMIs might be useful for AV-VRU communication when the original drivers are not present. Hence, a potential eHMI design concept was proposed for different VRUs to meet their various expectations. In the end, we further discussed the effects of the eHMIs on improving the sociality in shared spaces and the autonomous driving systems.

Predictive models of student success in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are a critical component of effective content personalization and adaptive interventions. In this article we review the state of the art in predictive models of student success in MOOCs and present a categorization of MOOC research according to the predictors (features), prediction (outcomes), and underlying theoretical model. We critically survey work across each category, providing data on the raw data source, feature engineering, statistical model, evaluation method, prediction architecture, and other aspects of these experiments. Such a review is particularly useful given the rapid expansion of predictive modeling research in MOOCs since the emergence of major MOOC platforms in 2012. This survey reveals several key methodological gaps, which include extensive filtering of experimental subpopulations, ineffective student model evaluation, and the use of experimental data which would be unavailable for real-world student success prediction and intervention, which is the ultimate goal of such models. Finally, we highlight opportunities for future research, which include temporal modeling, research bridging predictive and explanatory student models, work which contributes to learning theory, and evaluating long-term learner success in MOOCs.

Many recommendation algorithms rely on user data to generate recommendations. However, these recommendations also affect the data obtained from future users. This work aims to understand the effects of this dynamic interaction. We propose a simple model where users with heterogeneous preferences arrive over time. Based on this model, we prove that naive estimators, i.e. those which ignore this feedback loop, are not consistent. We show that consistent estimators are efficient in the presence of myopic agents. Our results are validated using extensive simulations.

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