This paper deals with state estimation of stochastic models with linear state dynamics, continuous or discrete in time. The emphasis is laid on a numerical solution to the state prediction by the time-update step of the grid-point-based point-mass filter (PMF), which is the most computationally demanding part of the PMF algorithm. A novel way of manipulating the grid, leading to the time-update in form of a convolution, is proposed. This reduces the PMF time complexity from quadratic to log-linear with respect to the number of grid points. Furthermore, the number of unique transition probability values is greatly reduced causing a significant reduction of the data storage needed. The proposed PMF prediction step is verified in a numerical study.
Stability and optimal convergence analysis of a non-uniform implicit-explicit L1 finite element method (IMEX-L1-FEM) is studied for a class of time-fractional linear partial differential/integro-differential equations with non-self-adjoint elliptic part having (space-time) variable coefficients. The proposed scheme is based on a combination of an IMEX-L1 method on graded mesh in the temporal direction and a finite element method in the spatial direction. With the help of a discrete fractional Gr\"{o}nwall inequality, optimal error estimates in $L^2$- and $H^1$-norms are derived for the problem with initial data $u_0 \in H_0^1(\Omega)\cap H^2(\Omega)$. Under higher regularity condition $u_0 \in \dot{H}^3(\Omega)$, a super convergence result is established and as a consequence, $L^\infty$ error estimate is obtained for 2D problems. Numerical experiments are presented to validate our theoretical findings.
Deep equilibrium (DEQ) models replace the multiple-layer stacking of conventional deep networks with a fixed-point iteration of a single-layer transformation. Having been demonstrated to be competitive in a variety of real-world scenarios, the adversarial robustness of general DEQs becomes increasingly crucial for their reliable deployment. Existing works improve the robustness of general DEQ models with the widely-used adversarial training (AT) framework, but they fail to exploit the structural uniquenesses of DEQ models. To this end, we interpret DEQs through the lens of neural dynamics and find that AT under-regulates intermediate states. Besides, the intermediate states typically provide predictions with a high prediction entropy. Informed by the correlation between the entropy of dynamical systems and their stability properties, we propose reducing prediction entropy by progressively updating inputs along the neural dynamics. During AT, we also utilize random intermediate states to compute the loss function. Our methods regulate the neural dynamics of DEQ models in this manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our methods substantially increase the robustness of DEQ models and even outperform the strong deep network baselines.
Variational Bayes methods are a potential scalable estimation approach for state space models. However, existing methods are inaccurate or computationally infeasible for many state space models. This paper proposes a variational approximation that is accurate and fast for any model with a closed-form measurement density function and a state transition distribution within the exponential family of distributions. We show that our method can accurately and quickly estimate a multivariate Skellam stochastic volatility model with high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete price changes of four stocks, and a time-varying parameter vector autoregression with a stochastic volatility model using eight macroeconomic variables.
A bound uniform over various loss-classes is given for data generated by stationary and phi-mixing processes, where the mixing time (the time needed to obtain approximate independence) enters the sample complexity only in an additive way. For slowly mixing processes this can be a considerable advantage over results with multiplicative dependence on the mixing time. The admissible loss-classes include functions with prescribed Lipschitz norms or smoothness parameters. The bound can also be applied to be uniform over unconstrained loss-classes, where it depends on local Lipschitz properties of the function on the sample path.
The max-relative entropy together with its smoothed version is a basic tool in quantum information theory. In this paper, we derive the exact exponent for the asymptotic decay of the small modification of the quantum state in smoothing the max-relative entropy based on purified distance. We then apply this result to the problem of privacy amplification against quantum side information, and we obtain an upper bound for the exponent of the asymptotic decreasing of the insecurity, measured using either purified distance or relative entropy. Our upper bound complements the earlier lower bound established by Hayashi, and the two bounds match when the rate of randomness extraction is above a critical value. Thus, for the case of high rate, we have determined the exact security exponent. Following this, we give examples and show that in the low-rate case, neither the upper bound nor the lower bound is tight in general. This exhibits a picture similar to that of the error exponent in channel coding. Lastly, we investigate the asymptotics of equivocation and its exponent under the security measure using the sandwiched R\'enyi divergence of order $s\in (1,2]$, which has not been addressed previously in the quantum setting.
We consider the linear contextual multi-class multi-period packing problem (LMMP) where the goal is to pack items such that the total vector of consumption is below a given budget vector and the total value is as large as possible. We consider the setting where the reward and the consumption vector associated with each action is a class-dependent linear function of the context, and the decision-maker receives bandit feedback. LMMP includes linear contextual bandits with knapsacks and online revenue management as special cases. We establish a new estimator which guarantees a faster convergence rate, and consequently, a lower regret in such problems. We propose a bandit policy that is a closed-form function of said estimated parameters. When the contexts are non-degenerate, the regret of the proposed policy is sublinear in the context dimension, the number of classes, and the time horizon $T$ when the budget grows at least as $\sqrt{T}$. We also resolve an open problem posed by Agrawal & Devanur (2016) and extend the result to a multi-class setting. Our numerical experiments clearly demonstrate that the performance of our policy is superior to other benchmarks in the literature.
The accelerated deployment of service robots have spawned a number of algorithm variations to better handle real-world conditions. Many local trajectory planning techniques have been deployed on practical robot systems successfully. While most formulations of Dynamic Window Approach and Model Predictive Control can progress along paths and optimize for additional criteria, the use of pure path tracking algorithms is still commonplace. Decades later, Pure Pursuit and its variants continues to be one of the most commonly utilized classes of local trajectory planners. However, few Pure Pursuit variants have been proposed with schema for variable linear velocities - they either assume a constant velocity or fails to address the point at all. This paper presents a variant of Pure Pursuit designed with additional heuristics to regulate linear velocities, built atop the existing Adaptive variant. The Regulated Pure Pursuit algorithm makes incremental improvements on state of the art by adjusting linear velocities with particular focus on safety in constrained and partially observable spaces commonly negotiated by deployed robots. We present experiments with the Regulated Pure Pursuit algorithm on industrial-grade service robots. We also provide a high-quality reference implementation that is freely included ROS 2 Nav2 framework at //github.com/ros-planning/navigation2 for fast evaluation.
We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.
We study the homogenization of the equation $-A(\frac{\cdot}{\varepsilon}):D^2 u_{\varepsilon} = f$ posed in a bounded convex domain $\Omega\subset \mathbb{R}^n$ subject to a Dirichlet boundary condition and the numerical approximation of the corresponding homogenized problem, where the measurable, uniformly elliptic, periodic and symmetric diffusion matrix $A$ is merely assumed to be essentially bounded and (if $n>2$) to satisfy the Cordes condition. In the first part, we show existence and uniqueness of an invariant measure by reducing to a Lax--Milgram-type problem, we obtain $L^2$-bounds for periodic problems in double-divergence-form, we prove homogenization under minimal regularity assumptions, and we generalize known corrector bounds and results on optimal convergence rates from the classical case of H\"{o}lder continuous coefficients to the present case. In the second part, we suggest and rigorously analyze an approximation scheme for the effective coefficient matrix and the solution to the homogenized problem based on a finite element method for the approximation of the invariant measure, and we demonstrate the performance of the scheme through numerical experiments.
Decision-making in personalized medicine such as cancer therapy or critical care must often make choices for dosage combinations, i.e., multiple continuous treatments. Existing work for this task has modeled the effect of multiple treatments independently, while estimating the joint effect has received little attention but comes with non-trivial challenges. In this paper, we propose a novel method for reliable off-policy learning for dosage combinations. Our method proceeds along three steps: (1) We develop a tailored neural network that estimates the individualized dose-response function while accounting for the joint effect of multiple dependent dosages. (2) We estimate the generalized propensity score using conditional normalizing flows in order to detect regions with limited overlap in the shared covariate-treatment space. (3) We present a gradient-based learning algorithm to find the optimal, individualized dosage combinations. Here, we ensure reliable estimation of the policy value by avoiding regions with limited overlap. We finally perform an extensive evaluation of our method to show its effectiveness. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work to provide a method for reliable off-policy learning for optimal dosage combinations.