We study the rank of the instantaneous or spot covariance matrix $\Sigma_X(t)$ of a multidimensional continuous semi-martingale $X(t)$. Given high-frequency observations $X(i/n)$, $i=0,\ldots,n$, we test the null hypothesis $rank(\Sigma_X(t))\le r$ for all $t$ against local alternatives where the average $(r+1)$st eigenvalue is larger than some signal detection rate $v_n$. A major problem is that the inherent averaging in local covariance statistics produces a bias that distorts the rank statistics. We show that the bias depends on the regularity and a spectral gap of $\Sigma_X(t)$. We establish explicit matrix perturbation and concentration results that provide non-asymptotic uniform critical values and optimal signal detection rates $v_n$. This leads to a rank estimation method via sequential testing. For a class of stochastic volatility models, we determine data-driven critical values via normed p-variations of estimated local covariance matrices. The methods are illustrated by simulations and an application to high-frequency data of U.S. government bonds.
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This paper presents a comparison of two multi-fidelity methods for the forward uncertainty quantification of a naval engineering problem. Specifically, we consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic resistance of a roll-on/roll-off passengers ferry advancing in calm water and subject to two operational uncertainties (ship speed and payload). The first four statistical moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis), and the probability density function for such quantity of interest (QoI) are computed with two multi-fidelity methods, i.e., the Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method and an adaptive multi-fidelity Stochastic Radial Basis Functions (SRBF) algorithm. The QoI is evaluated via computational fluid dynamics simulations, which are performed with the in-house unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) multi-grid solver $\chi$navis. The different fidelities employed by both methods are obtained by stopping the RANS solver at different grid levels of the multi-grid cycle. The performance of both methods are presented and discussed: in a nutshell, the findings suggest that, at least for the current implementations of both algorithms, MISC could be preferred whenever a limited computational budget is available, whereas for a larger computational budget SRBFs seem to be preferable, thanks to its robustness to the numerical noise in the evaluations of the QoI.
In statistical learning and analysis from shared data, which is increasingly widely adopted in platforms such as federated learning and meta-learning, there are two major concerns: privacy and robustness. Each participating individual should be able to contribute without the fear of leaking one's sensitive information. At the same time, the system should be robust in the presence of malicious participants inserting corrupted data. Recent algorithmic advances in learning from shared data focus on either one of these threats, leaving the system vulnerable to the other. We bridge this gap for the canonical problem of estimating the mean from i.i.d. samples. We introduce PRIME, which is the first efficient algorithm that achieves both privacy and robustness for a wide range of distributions. We further complement this result with a novel exponential time algorithm that improves the sample complexity of PRIME, achieving a near-optimal guarantee and matching a known lower bound for (non-robust) private mean estimation. This proves that there is no extra statistical cost to simultaneously guaranteeing privacy and robustness.
This paper considers a novel multi-agent linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise and general consensus-type interaction, in which each agent evolves according to its local stochastic approximation process which depends on the information from its neighbors. The interconnection structure among the agents is described by a time-varying directed graph. While the convergence of consensus-based stochastic approximation algorithms when the interconnection among the agents is described by doubly stochastic matrices (at least in expectation) has been studied, less is known about the case when the interconnection matrix is simply stochastic. For any uniformly strongly connected graph sequences whose associated interaction matrices are stochastic, the paper derives finite-time bounds on the mean-square error, defined as the deviation of the output of the algorithm from the unique equilibrium point of the associated ordinary differential equation. For the case of interconnection matrices being stochastic, the equilibrium point can be any unspecified convex combination of the local equilibria of all the agents in the absence of communication. Both the cases with constant and time-varying step-sizes are considered. In the case when the convex combination is required to be a straight average and interaction between any pair of neighboring agents may be uni-directional, so that doubly stochastic matrices cannot be implemented in a distributed manner, the paper proposes a push-sum-type distributed stochastic approximation algorithm and provides its finite-time bound for the time-varying step-size case by leveraging the analysis for the consensus-type algorithm with stochastic matrices and developing novel properties of the push-sum algorithm.
Joint modeling of a large number of variables often requires dimension reduction strategies that lead to structural assumptions of the underlying correlation matrix, such as equal pair-wise correlations within subsets of variables. The underlying correlation matrix is thus of interest for both model specification and model validation. In this paper, we develop tests of the hypothesis that the entries of the Kendall rank correlation matrix are linear combinations of a smaller number of parameters. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed test statistics is investigated both when the dimension is fixed and when it grows with the sample size. We pay special attention to the restricted hypothesis of partial exchangeability, which contains full exchangeability as a special case. We show that under partial exchangeability, the test statistics and their large-sample distributions simplify, which leads to computational advantages and better performance of the tests. We propose various scalable numerical strategies for implementation of the proposed procedures, investigate their behavior through simulations and power calculations under local alternatives, and demonstrate their use on a real dataset of mean sea levels at various geographical locations.
This paper tackles the problem of robust covariance matrix estimation when the data is incomplete. Classical statistical estimation methodologies are usually built upon the Gaussian assumption, whereas existing robust estimation ones assume unstructured signal models. The former can be inaccurate in real-world data sets in which heterogeneity causes heavy-tail distributions, while the latter does not profit from the usual low-rank structure of the signal. Taking advantage of both worlds, a covariance matrix estimation procedure is designed on a robust (mixture of scaled Gaussian) low-rank model by leveraging the observed-data likelihood function within an expectation-maximization algorithm. It is also designed to handle general pattern of missing values. The proposed procedure is first validated on simulated data sets. Then, its interest for classification and clustering applications is assessed on two real data sets with missing values, which include multispectral and hyperspectral time series.
In this paper, we provide an optimal additive noise mechanism for database queries with discrete answers on a finite support. The noise provides the minimum error rate for a given $(\epsilon,\delta)$ pair. Popular schemes apply random additive noise with infinite support and then clamp the resulting query response to the desired range. Clamping, unfortunately, compromises the privacy guarantees. Using modulo addition, rather than clamping, we show that, for any $(\epsilon,\delta)$ pair, the optimum additive noise distribution can be obtained by solving a mixed integer linear program (MILP). Having introduced our optimal noise design formulation, we derive closed form solutions for the optimal noise probability mass function (PMF) and the probability of error for two special cases. In our performance studies, we show that the proposed optimal mechanism outperforms state of the art for a given probability of error and for any budget $\epsilon >0$.
We propose a new fast randomized algorithm for interpolative decomposition of matrices which utilizes CountSketch. We then extend this approach to the tensor interpolative decomposition problem introduced by Biagioni et al. (J. Comput. Phys. 281, pp. 116-134, 2015). Theoretical performance guarantees are provided for both the matrix and tensor settings. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate that our algorithms maintain the accuracy of competing methods, while running in less time, achieving at least an order of magnitude speed-up on large matrices and tensors.
Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular model-free reinforcement learning (RL) approach. However, in continuous state and actions spaces and a Gaussian policy -- common in computer animation and robotics -- PPO is prone to getting stuck in local optima. In this paper, we observe a tendency of PPO to prematurely shrink the exploration variance, which naturally leads to slow progress. Motivated by this, we borrow ideas from CMA-ES, a black-box optimization method designed for intelligent adaptive Gaussian exploration, to derive PPO-CMA, a novel proximal policy optimization approach that can expand the exploration variance on objective function slopes and shrink the variance when close to the optimum. This is implemented by using separate neural networks for policy mean and variance and training the mean and variance in separate passes. Our experiments demonstrate a clear improvement over vanilla PPO in many difficult OpenAI Gym MuJoCo tasks.
In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.
In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.
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