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In survival analysis, complex machine learning algorithms have been increasingly used for predictive modeling. Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. In particular, in HIV vaccine trials, participant baseline characteristics are used to predict the probability of infection over the intended follow-up period, and investigators may wish to understand how much certain types of predictors, such as behavioral factors, contribute toward overall predictiveness. Time-to-event outcomes such as time to infection are often subject to right censoring, and existing methods for assessing variable importance are typically not intended to be used in this setting. We describe a broad class of algorithm-agnostic variable importance measures for prediction in the context of survival data. We propose a nonparametric efficient estimation procedure that incorporates flexible learning of nuisance parameters, yields asymptotically valid inference, and enjoys double-robustness. We assess the performance of our proposed procedure via numerical simulations and analyze data from the HVTN 702 study to inform enrollment strategies for future HIV vaccine trials.

In many applications, it is of interest to identify a parsimonious set of features, or panel, from multiple candidates that achieves a desired level of performance in predicting a response. This task is often complicated in practice by missing data arising from the sampling design or other random mechanisms. Most recent work on variable selection in missing data contexts relies in some part on a finite-dimensional statistical model, e.g., a generalized or penalized linear model. In cases where this model is misspecified, the selected variables may not all be truly scientifically relevant and can result in panels with suboptimal classification performance. To address this limitation, we propose a nonparametric variable selection algorithm combined with multiple imputation to develop flexible panels in the presence of missing-at-random data. We outline strategies based on the proposed algorithm that achieve control of commonly used error rates. Through simulations, we show that our proposal has good operating characteristics and results in panels with higher classification and variable selection performance compared to several existing penalized regression approaches in cases where a generalized linear model is misspecified. Finally, we use the proposed method to develop biomarker panels for separating pancreatic cysts with differing malignancy potential in a setting where complicated missingness in the biomarkers arose due to limited specimen volumes.

We introduce a new Langevin dynamics based algorithm, called e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA, to solve optimization problems with discontinuous stochastic gradients which naturally appear in real-world applications such as quantile estimation, vector quantization, CVaR minimization, and regularized optimization problems involving ReLU neural networks. We demonstrate both theoretically and numerically the applicability of the e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA algorithm. More precisely, under the conditions that the stochastic gradient is locally Lipschitz in average and satisfies a certain convexity at infinity condition, we establish non-asymptotic error bounds for e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA in Wasserstein distances and provide a non-asymptotic estimate for the expected excess risk, which can be controlled to be arbitrarily small. Three key applications in finance and insurance are provided, namely, multi-period portfolio optimization, transfer learning in multi-period portfolio optimization, and insurance claim prediction, which involve neural networks with (Leaky)-ReLU activation functions. Numerical experiments conducted using real-world datasets illustrate the superior empirical performance of e-TH$\varepsilon$O POULA compared to SGLD, TUSLA, ADAM, and AMSGrad in terms of model accuracy.

We propose a topological mapping and localization system able to operate on real human colonoscopies, despite significant shape and illumination changes. The map is a graph where each node codes a colon location by a set of real images, while edges represent traversability between nodes. For close-in-time images, where scene changes are minor, place recognition can be successfully managed with the recent transformers-based local feature matching algorithms. However, under long-term changes -- such as different colonoscopies of the same patient -- feature-based matching fails. To address this, we train on real colonoscopies a deep global descriptor achieving high recall with significant changes in the scene. The addition of a Bayesian filter boosts the accuracy of long-term place recognition, enabling relocalization in a previously built map. Our experiments show that ColonMapper is able to autonomously build a map and localize against it in two important use cases: localization within the same colonoscopy or within different colonoscopies of the same patient. Code will be available upon acceptance.

We address the problem of configuring a power distribution network with reliability and resilience objectives by satisfying the demands of the consumers and saturating each production source as little as possible. We consider power distribution networks containing source nodes producing electricity, nodes representing electricity consumers and switches between them. Configuring this network consists in deciding the orientation of the links between the nodes of the network. The electric flow is a direct consequence of the chosen configuration and can be computed in polynomial time. It is valid if it satisfies the demand of each consumer and capacity constraints on the network. In such a case, we study the problem of determining a feasible solution that balances the loads of the sources, that is their production rates. We use three metrics to measure the quality of a solution: minimizing the maximum load, maximizing the minimum load and minimizing the difference of the maximum and the minimum loads. This defines optimization problems called respectively min-M, max-m and min-R. In the case where the graph of the network is a tree, it is known that the problem of building a valid configuration is polynomial. We show the three optimization variants have distinct properties regarding the theoretical complexity and the approximability. Particularly, we show that min-M is polynomial, that max-m is NP-Hard but belongs to the class FPTAS and that min-R is NP-Hard, cannot 1 be approximated to within any exponential relative ratio but, for any $\epsilon$ > 0, there exists an algorithm for which the value of the returned solution equals the value of an optimal solution shifted by at most $\epsilon$.

This paper introduces $\textbf{gemact}$, a $\textbf{Python}$ package for actuarial modelling based on the collective risk model. The library supports applications to risk costing and risk transfer, loss aggregation, and loss reserving. We add new probability distributions to those available in $\textbf{scipy}$, including the (a, b, 0) and (a, b, 1) discrete distributions, copulas of the Archimedean family, the Gaussian, the Student t and the Fundamental copulas. We provide an implementation of the AEP algorithm for calculating the cumulative distribution function of the sum of dependent, non-negative random variables, given their dependency structure specified with a copula. The theoretical framework is introduced at the beginning of each section to give the reader with a sufficient understanding of the underlying actuarial models.

This paper studies the impact of bootstrap procedure on the eigenvalue distributions of the sample covariance matrix under a high-dimensional factor structure. We provide asymptotic distributions for the top eigenvalues of bootstrapped sample covariance matrix under mild conditions. After bootstrap, the spiked eigenvalues which are driven by common factors will converge weakly to Gaussian limits after proper scaling and centralization. However, the largest non-spiked eigenvalue is mainly determined by the order statistics of the bootstrap resampling weights, and follows extreme value distribution. Based on the disparate behavior of the spiked and non-spiked eigenvalues, we propose innovative methods to test the number of common factors. Indicated by extensive numerical and empirical studies, the proposed methods perform reliably and convincingly under the existence of both weak factors and cross-sectionally correlated errors. Our technical details contribute to random matrix theory on spiked covariance model with convexly decaying density and unbounded support, or with general elliptical distributions.

We prove a tight parallel repetition theorem for $3$-message computationally-secure quantum interactive protocols between an efficient challenger and an efficient adversary. We also prove under plausible assumptions that the security of $4$-message computationally secure protocols does not generally decrease under parallel repetition. These mirror the classical results of Bellare, Impagliazzo, and Naor [BIN97]. Finally, we prove that all quantum argument systems can be generically compiled to an equivalent $3$-message argument system, mirroring the transformation for quantum proof systems [KW00, KKMV07]. As immediate applications, we show how to derive hardness amplification theorems for quantum bit commitment schemes (answering a question of Yan [Yan22]), EFI pairs (answering a question of Brakerski, Canetti, and Qian [BCQ23]), public-key quantum money schemes (answering a question of Aaronson and Christiano [AC13]), and quantum zero-knowledge argument systems. We also derive an XOR lemma [Yao82] for quantum predicates as a corollary.

Energy consumption remains the main limiting factors in many IoT applications. In particular, micro-controllers consume far too much power. In order to overcome this problem, new circuit designs have been proposed and the use of spiking neurons and analog computing has emerged as it allows a very significant consumption reduction. However, working in the analog domain brings difficulty to handle the sequential processing of incoming signals as is needed in many use cases. In this paper, we use a bio-inspired phenomenon called Interacting Synapses to produce a time filter, without using non-biological techniques such as synaptic delays. We propose a model of neuron and synapses that fire for a specific range of delays between two incoming spikes, but do not react when this Inter-Spike Timing is not in that range. We study the parameters of the model to understand how to choose them and adapt the Inter-Spike Timing. The originality of the paper is to propose a new way, in the analog domain, to deal with temporal sequences.

Learning distance functions between complex objects, such as the Wasserstein distance to compare point sets, is a common goal in machine learning applications. However, functions on such complex objects (e.g., point sets and graphs) are often required to be invariant to a wide variety of group actions e.g. permutation or rigid transformation. Therefore, continuous and symmetric product functions (such as distance functions) on such complex objects must also be invariant to the product of such group actions. We call these functions symmetric and factor-wise group invariant (or SFGI functions in short). In this paper, we first present a general neural network architecture for approximating SFGI functions. The main contribution of this paper combines this general neural network with a sketching idea to develop a specific and efficient neural network which can approximate the $p$-th Wasserstein distance between point sets. Very importantly, the required model complexity is independent of the sizes of input point sets. On the theoretical front, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first result showing that there exists a neural network with the capacity to approximate Wasserstein distance with bounded model complexity. Our work provides an interesting integration of sketching ideas for geometric problems with universal approximation of symmetric functions. On the empirical front, we present a range of results showing that our newly proposed neural network architecture performs comparatively or better than other models (including a SOTA Siamese Autoencoder based approach). In particular, our neural network generalizes significantly better and trains much faster than the SOTA Siamese AE. Finally, this line of investigation could be useful in exploring effective neural network design for solving a broad range of geometric optimization problems (e.g., $k$-means in a metric space).