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We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. We first use them to evaluate the simple feature-engineered linear regression (FELR) forecasts of Diebold and Goebel (2021), and to compare FELR forecasts to naive pure-trend benchmark forecasts. Then we introduce a much more sophisticated feature-engineered machine learning (FEML) model, and we use glide charts to evaluate FEML forecasts and compare them to a FELR benchmark. Our substantive results include the frequent appearance of predictability thresholds, which differ across months, meaning that accuracy initially fails to improve as the target date is approached but then increases progressively once a threshold lead time is crossed. Also, we find that FEML can improve appreciably over FELR when forecasting "turning point" months in the annual cycle at horizons of one to three months ahead.

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 線性回歸是利用數理統計中回歸分析,來確定兩種或兩種以上變量間相互依賴的定量關系的一種統計分析方法,運用十分廣泛。其表達形式為y = w'x+e,e為誤差服從均值為0的正態分布。

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With the development of new sensors and monitoring devices, more sources of data become available to be used as inputs for machine learning models. These can on the one hand help to improve the accuracy of a model. On the other hand however, combining these new inputs with historical data remains a challenge that has not yet been studied in enough detail. In this work, we propose a transfer-learning algorithm that combines the new and the historical data, that is especially beneficial when the new data is scarce. We focus the approach on the linear regression case, which allows us to conduct a rigorous theoretical study on the benefits of the approach. We show that our approach is robust against negative transfer-learning, and we confirm this result empirically with real and simulated data.

The acquisition of labels for supervised learning can be expensive. To improve the sample efficiency of neural network regression, we study active learning methods that adaptively select batches of unlabeled data for labeling. We present a framework for constructing such methods out of (network-dependent) base kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods. Our framework encompasses many existing Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process approximations of neural networks as well as non-Bayesian methods. Additionally, we propose to replace the commonly used last-layer features with sketched finite-width neural tangent kernels and to combine them with a novel clustering method. To evaluate different methods, we introduce an open-source benchmark consisting of 15 large tabular regression data sets. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art on our benchmark, scales to large data sets, and works out-of-the-box without adjusting the network architecture or training code. We provide open-source code that includes efficient implementations of all kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods, and can be used for reproducing our results.

We contribute to the sparsely populated area of unsupervised deep graph matching with application to keypoint matching in images. Contrary to the standard \emph{supervised} approach, our method does not require ground truth correspondences between keypoint pairs. Instead, it is self-supervised by enforcing consistency of matchings between images of the same object category. As the matching and the consistency loss are discrete, their derivatives cannot be straightforwardly used for learning. We address this issue in a principled way by building our method upon the recent results on black-box differentiation of combinatorial solvers. This makes our method exceptionally flexible, as it is compatible with arbitrary network architectures and combinatorial solvers. Our experimental evaluation suggests that our technique sets a new state-of-the-art for unsupervised graph matching.

A key challenge in off-road navigation is that even visually similar terrains or ones from the same semantic class may have substantially different traction properties. Existing work typically assumes no wheel slip or uses the expected traction for motion planning, where the predicted trajectories provide a poor indication of the actual performance if the terrain traction has high uncertainty. In contrast, this work proposes to analyze terrain traversability with the empirical distribution of traction parameters in unicycle dynamics, which can be learned by a neural network in a self-supervised fashion. The probabilistic traction model leads to two risk-aware cost formulations that account for the worst-case expected cost and traction. To help the learned model generalize to unseen environment, terrains with features that lead to unreliable predictions are detected via a density estimator fit to the trained network's latent space and avoided via auxiliary penalties during planning. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms existing work that assumes no slip or uses the expected traction in both navigation success rate and completion time. Furthermore, avoiding terrains with low density-based confidence score achieves up to 30% improvement in success rate when the learned traction model is used in a novel environment.

Consistency and reliability are crucial for conducting AI research. Many famous research fields, such as object detection, have been compared and validated with solid benchmark frameworks. After AlphaFold2, the protein folding task has entered a new phase, and many methods are proposed based on the component of AlphaFold2. The importance of a unified research framework in protein folding contains implementations and benchmarks to consistently and fairly compare various approaches. To achieve this, we present Solvent, a protein folding framework that supports significant components of state-of-the-art models in the manner of an off-the-shelf interface Solvent contains different models implemented in a unified codebase and supports training and evaluation for defined models on the same dataset. We benchmark well-known algorithms and their components and provide experiments that give helpful insights into the protein structure modeling field. We hope that Solvent will increase the reliability and consistency of proposed models and give efficiency in both speed and costs, resulting in acceleration on protein folding modeling research. The code is available at //github.com/kakaobrain/solvent, and the project will continue to be developed.

Lack of diversity in data collection has caused significant failures in machine learning (ML) applications. While ML developers perform post-collection interventions, these are time intensive and rarely comprehensive. Thus, new methods to track & manage data collection, iteration, and model training are necessary for evaluating whether datasets reflect real world variability. We present designing data, an iterative approach to data collection connecting HCI concepts with ML techniques. Our process includes (1) Pre-Collection Planning, to reflexively prompt and document expected data distributions; (2) Collection Monitoring, to systematically encourage sampling diversity; and (3) Data Familiarity, to identify samples that are unfamiliar to a model using density estimation. We apply designing data to a data collection and modeling task. We find models trained on ''designed'' datasets generalize better across intersectional groups than those trained on similarly sized but less targeted datasets, and that data familiarity is effective for debugging datasets.

Artificial intelligence is gaining traction in more ways than ever before. The popularity of language models and AI-based businesses has soared since ChatGPT was made available to the general public via OpenAI. It is becoming increasingly common for people to use ChatGPT both professionally and personally. Considering the widespread use of ChatGPT and the reliance people place on it, this study determined how reliable ChatGPT can be for answering complex medical and clinical questions. Harvard University gross anatomy along with the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) questionnaire were used to accomplish the objective. The paper evaluated the obtained results using a 2-way ANOVA and posthoc analysis. Both showed systematic covariation between format and prompt. Furthermore, the physician adjudicators independently rated the outcome's accuracy, concordance, and insight. As a result of the analysis, ChatGPT-generated answers were found to be more context-oriented and represented a better model for deductive reasoning than regular Google search results. Furthermore, ChatGPT obtained 58.8% on logical questions and 60% on ethical questions. This means that the ChatGPT is approaching the passing range for logical questions and has crossed the threshold for ethical questions. The paper believes ChatGPT and other language learning models can be invaluable tools for e-learners; however, the study suggests that there is still room to improve their accuracy. In order to improve ChatGPT's performance in the future, further research is needed to better understand how it can answer different types of questions.

Estimating human pose and shape from monocular images is a long-standing problem in computer vision. Since the release of statistical body models, 3D human mesh recovery has been drawing broader attention. With the same goal of obtaining well-aligned and physically plausible mesh results, two paradigms have been developed to overcome challenges in the 2D-to-3D lifting process: i) an optimization-based paradigm, where different data terms and regularization terms are exploited as optimization objectives; and ii) a regression-based paradigm, where deep learning techniques are embraced to solve the problem in an end-to-end fashion. Meanwhile, continuous efforts are devoted to improving the quality of 3D mesh labels for a wide range of datasets. Though remarkable progress has been achieved in the past decade, the task is still challenging due to flexible body motions, diverse appearances, complex environments, and insufficient in-the-wild annotations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first survey to focus on the task of monocular 3D human mesh recovery. We start with the introduction of body models and then elaborate recovery frameworks and training objectives by providing in-depth analyses of their strengths and weaknesses. We also summarize datasets, evaluation metrics, and benchmark results. Open issues and future directions are discussed in the end, hoping to motivate researchers and facilitate their research in this area. A regularly updated project page can be found at //github.com/tinatiansjz/hmr-survey.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently achieved great success in many visual recognition tasks. However, existing deep neural network models are computationally expensive and memory intensive, hindering their deployment in devices with low memory resources or in applications with strict latency requirements. Therefore, a natural thought is to perform model compression and acceleration in deep networks without significantly decreasing the model performance. During the past few years, tremendous progress has been made in this area. In this paper, we survey the recent advanced techniques for compacting and accelerating CNNs model developed. These techniques are roughly categorized into four schemes: parameter pruning and sharing, low-rank factorization, transferred/compact convolutional filters, and knowledge distillation. Methods of parameter pruning and sharing will be described at the beginning, after that the other techniques will be introduced. For each scheme, we provide insightful analysis regarding the performance, related applications, advantages, and drawbacks etc. Then we will go through a few very recent additional successful methods, for example, dynamic capacity networks and stochastic depths networks. After that, we survey the evaluation matrix, the main datasets used for evaluating the model performance and recent benchmarking efforts. Finally, we conclude this paper, discuss remaining challenges and possible directions on this topic.

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