Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues we revisit the posterior Bayes factor, in which the posterior distribution from the data at hand is re-used in the Bayes factor for the same data. We argue that this is biased when calibrated against proper Bayes factors, but propose adjustments to allow interpretation on the same scale. In the important case of a regular normal model, the bias in log scale is half the number of parameters. The resulting empirical Bayes factor is closely related to the widely applicable information criterion. We develop test-based empirical Bayes factors for several standard tests and propose an extension to multiple testing closely related to the optimal discovery procedure. For non-parametric tests the empirical Bayes factor is approximately 10 times the P-value. We propose interpreting the strength of Bayes factors on a logarithmic scale with base 3.73, reflecting the sharpest distinction between weaker and stronger belief. This provides an objective framework for interpreting statistical evidence, realising a Bayesian/frequentist compromise.
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For simulation-based systems, finding a set of test cases with the least cost by exploring multiple goals is a complex task. Domain-specific optimization goals (e.g. maximize output variance) are useful for guiding the rapid selection of test cases via mutation. But evaluating the selected test cases via mutation (that can distinguish the current program from the mutated systems) is a different goal to domain-specific optimizations. While the optimization goals can be used to guide the mutation analysis, that guidance should be viewed as a weak indicator since it can hurt the mutation effectiveness goals by focusing too much on the optimization goals. Based on the above, this paper proposes DoLesS (Domination with Least Squares Approximation) that selects the minimal and effective test cases by averaging over a coarse-grained grid of the information gained from multiple optimizations goals. DoLesS applies an inverted least squares approximation approach to find a minimal set of tests that can distinguish better from worse parts of the optimization goals. When tested on multiple simulation-based systems, DoLesS performs as well or even better as the prior state-of-the-art, while running 80-360 times faster on average (seconds instead of hours).
Bayesian variable selection methods are powerful techniques for fitting and inferring on sparse high-dimensional linear regression models. However, many are computationally intensive or require restrictive prior distributions on model parameters. In this paper, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful Bayesian approach for sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Minimal prior assumptions on the parameters are used through the use of plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. Efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is completed through a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization (PX-ECM) algorithm. The PX-ECM results in a robust computationally efficient coordinate-wise optimization, which adjusts for the impact of other predictor variables. The completion of the E-step uses an approach motivated by the popular two-groups approach to multiple testing. The result is a PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes Ecm (PROBE) algorithm applied to sparse high-dimensional linear regression, which can be completed using one-at-a-time or all-at-once type optimization. We compare the empirical properties of PROBE to comparable approaches with numerous simulation studies and an analysis of cancer cell lines drug response study. The proposed approach is implemented in the R package probe.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are powerful machine learning methods used in many modern applications such as facial recognition, machine translation, and cancer diagnostics. A common issue with ANNs is that they usually have millions or billions of trainable parameters, and therefore tend to overfit to the training data. This is especially problematic in applications where it is important to have reliable uncertainty estimates. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can improve on this, since they incorporate parameter uncertainty. In addition, latent binary Bayesian neural networks (LBBNN) also take into account structural uncertainty by allowing the weights to be turned on or off, enabling inference in the joint space of weights and structures. In this paper, we will consider two extensions to the LBBNN method: Firstly, by using the local reparametrization trick (LRT) to sample the hidden units directly, we get a more computationally efficient algorithm. More importantly, by using normalizing flows on the variational posterior distribution of the LBBNN parameters, the network learns a more flexible variational posterior distribution than the mean field Gaussian. Experimental results show that this improves predictive power compared to the LBBNN method, while also obtaining more sparse networks. We perform two simulation studies. In the first study, we consider variable selection in a logistic regression setting, where the more flexible variational distribution leads to improved results. In the second study, we compare predictive uncertainty based on data generated from two-dimensional Gaussian distributions. Here, we argue that our Bayesian methods lead to more realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty.
Model-based approaches to reinforcement learning (MBRL) exhibit favorable performance in practice, but their theoretical guarantees in large spaces are mostly restricted to the setting when transition model is Gaussian or Lipschitz, and demands a posterior estimate whose representational complexity grows unbounded with time. In this work, we develop a novel MBRL method (i) which relaxes the assumptions on the target transition model to belong to a generic family of mixture models; (ii) is applicable to large-scale training by incorporating a compression step such that the posterior estimate consists of a Bayesian coreset of only statistically significant past state-action pairs; and (iii) exhibits a sublinear Bayesian regret. To achieve these results, we adopt an approach based upon Stein's method, which, under a smoothness condition on the constructed posterior and target, allows distributional distance to be evaluated in closed form as the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). The aforementioned compression step is then computed in terms of greedily retaining only those samples which are more than a certain KSD away from the previous model estimate. Experimentally, we observe that this approach is competitive with several state-of-the-art RL methodologies, and can achieve up-to 50 percent reduction in wall clock time in some continuous control environments.
Score-based generative modeling (SGM) is a highly successful approach for learning a probability distribution from data and generating further samples. We prove the first polynomial convergence guarantees for the core mechanic behind SGM: drawing samples from a probability density $p$ given a score estimate (an estimate of $\nabla \ln p$) that is accurate in $L^2(p)$. Compared to previous works, we do not incur error that grows exponentially in time or that suffers from a curse of dimensionality. Our guarantee works for any smooth distribution and depends polynomially on its log-Sobolev constant. Using our guarantee, we give a theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling, which transforms white-noise input into samples from a learned data distribution given score estimates at different noise scales. Our analysis gives theoretical grounding to the observation that an annealed procedure is required in practice to generate good samples, as our proof depends essentially on using annealing to obtain a warm start at each step. Moreover, we show that a predictor-corrector algorithm gives better convergence than using either portion alone.
The space of $C^1$ cubic Clough-Tocher splines is a classical finite element approximation space over triangulations for solving partial differential equations. However, for such a space there is no B-spline basis available, which is a preferred choice in computer aided geometric design and isogeometric analysis. A B-spline basis is a locally supported basis that forms a convex partition of unity. In this paper, we explore several alternative $C^1$ cubic spline spaces over triangulations equipped with a B-spline basis. They are defined over a Powell-Sabin refined triangulation and present different types of $C^2$ super-smoothness. The super-smooth B-splines are obtained through an extraction process, i.e., they are expressed in terms of less smooth basis functions. These alternative spline spaces maintain the same optimal approximation power as Clough-Tocher splines. This is illustrated with a selection of numerical examples in the context of least squares approximation and finite element approximation for second and fourth order boundary value problems.
Empirical likelihood enables a nonparametric, likelihood-driven style of inference without restrictive assumptions routinely made in parametric models. We develop a framework for applying empirical likelihood to the analysis of experimental designs, addressing issues that arise from blocking and multiple hypothesis testing. In addition to popular designs such as balanced incomplete block designs, our approach allows for highly unbalanced, incomplete block designs. We derive an asymptotic multivariate chi-square distribution for a set of empirical likelihood test statistics and propose two single-step multiple testing procedures: asymptotic Monte Carlo and nonparametric bootstrap. Both procedures asymptotically control the generalised family-wise error rate and efficiently construct simultaneous confidence intervals for comparisons of interest without explicitly considering the underlying covariance structure. A simulation study demonstrates that the performance of the procedures is robust to violations of standard assumptions of linear mixed models. We also present an application to experiments on a pesticide.
This paper investigates the mathematical properties of a stochastic version of the balanced 2D thermal quasigeostrophic (TQG) model of potential vorticity dynamics. This stochastic TQG model is intended as a basis for parametrisation of the dynamical creation of unresolved degrees of freedom in computational simulations of upper ocean dynamics when horizontal buoyancy gradients and bathymetry affect the dynamics, particularly at the submesoscale (250m--10km). Specifically, we have chosen the SALT (Stochastic Advection by Lie Transport) algorithm introduced in [1] and applied in [2,3] as our modelling approach. The SALT approach preserves the Kelvin circulation theorem and an infinite family of integral conservation laws for TQG. The goal of the SALT algorithm is to quantify the uncertainty in the process of up-scaling, or coarse-graining of either observed or synthetic data at fine scales, for use in computational simulations at coarser scales. The present work provides a rigorous mathematical analysis of the solution properties of the thermal quasigeostrophic (TQG) equations with stochastic advection by Lie transport (SALT) [4,5].
The continuous time stochastic process is a mainstream mathematical instrument modeling the random world with a wide range of applications involving finance, statistics, physics, and time series analysis, while the simulation and analysis of the continuous time stochastic process is a challenging problem for classical computers. In this work, a general framework is established to prepare the path of a continuous time stochastic process in a quantum computer efficiently. The storage and computation resource is exponentially reduced on the key parameter of holding time, as the qubit number and the circuit depth are both optimized via our compressed state preparation method. The desired information, including the path-dependent and history-sensitive information that is essential for financial problems, can be extracted efficiently from the compressed sampling path, and admits a further quadratic speed-up. Moreover, this extraction method is more sensitive to those discontinuous jumps capturing extreme market events. Two applications of option pricing in Merton jump diffusion model and ruin probability computing in the collective risk model are given.
We consider the problem of sequential multiple hypothesis testing with nontrivial data collection cost. This problem appears, for example, when conducting biological experiments to identify differentially expressed genes in a disease process. This work builds on the generalized $\alpha$-investing framework that enables control of the false discovery rate in a sequential testing setting. We make a theoretical analysis of the long term asymptotic behavior of $\alpha$-wealth which motivates a consideration of sample size in the $\alpha$-investing decision rule. Posing the testing process as a game with nature, we construct a decision rule that optimizes the expected return (ERO) of $\alpha$-wealth and provides an optimal sample size for the test. Empirical results show that a cost-aware ERO decision rule correctly rejects more false null hypotheses than other methods. We extend cost-aware ERO investing to finite-horizon testing which enables the decision rule to allocate samples across many tests. Finally, empirical tests on real data sets from biological experiments show that cost-aware ERO produces actionable decisions to conduct tests at optimal sample sizes.
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