Thul et al. (2020) called attention to problems that arise when chronometric experiments implementing specific factorial designs are analysed with the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), using factor smooths to capture trial-to-trial dependencies. From a series of simulations incorporating such dependencies, they conclude that GAMMs are inappropriate for between-subject designs. They argue that in addition GAMMs come with too many modeling possibilities, and advise using the linear mixed model (LMM) instead. We address the questions raised by Thul et al. (2020), who clearly demonstrated that problems can indeed arise when using factor smooths in combination with factorial designs. We show that the problem does not arise when using by-smooths. Furthermore, we have traced a bug in the implementation of factor smooths in the mgcv package, which will have been removed from version 1.8-36 onwards. To illustrate that GAMMs now produce correct estimates, we report simulation studies implementing different by-subject longitudinal effects. The maximal LMM emerges as slightly conservative compared to GAMMs, and GAMMs provide estimated coefficients that can be less variable across simulation runs. We also discuss two datasets where time-varying effects interact with numerical predictors in a theoretically informative way. Furthermore, we argue that the wide range of tools that GAMMs make available to researcher across all domains of scientific inquiry do not come with uncontrolled researcher degrees of freedom once confronted with a specific psycholinguistic datasets. We also introduce a distinction between replicable and non-replicable non-linear effects. We conclude that GAMMs are an excellent and reliable tool for understanding experimental data, including chronometric data with time-varying effects.
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We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a homogeneously mixing community. The model is based on an infectivity process, which we define through stochastic contact and infectiousness processes, so that each individual has an independent infectivity profile. In particular, we monitor variations of the reproduction number and of the distribution of generation times. We show that some interventions, i.e. uniform reduction and vaccination, affect the former while leaving the latter unchanged, whereas other interventions, i.e. isolation, screening and contact tracing, affect both quantities. We provide a theoretical analysis of the variation of these quantities, and we show that, in practice, the variation of the generation time distribution can be significant and that it can cause biases in the estimation of basic reproduction numbers. The framework, because of its general nature, captures the properties of many infectious diseases, but particular emphasis is on COVID-19, for which numerical results are provided.
This work investigates the use of neural networks admitting high-order derivatives for modeling dynamic variations of smooth implicit surfaces. For this purpose, it extends the representation of differentiable neural implicit surfaces to higher dimensions, which opens up mechanisms that allow to exploit geometric transformations in many settings, from animation and surface evolution to shape morphing and design galleries. The problem is modeled by a $k$-parameter family of surfaces $S_c$, specified as a neural network function $f : \mathbb{R}^3 \times \mathbb{R}^k \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$, where $S_c$ is the zero-level set of the implicit function $f(\cdot, c) : \mathbb{R}^3 \rightarrow \mathbb{R} $, with $c \in \mathbb{R}^k$, with variations induced by the control variable $c$. In that context, restricted to each coordinate of $\mathbb{R}^k$, the underlying representation is a neural homotopy which is the solution of a general partial differential equation.
We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been well studied in the recent machine learning literature, their combination -- albeit of high practical relevance -- has received considerably less attention. With the ultimate goal of reliably estimating the effects of treatments on instantaneous risk and survival probabilities, we focus on the problem of learning (discrete-time) treatment-specific conditional hazard functions. We find that unique challenges arise in this context due to a variety of covariate shift issues that go beyond a mere combination of well-studied confounding and censoring biases. We theoretically analyse their effects by adapting recent generalization bounds from domain adaptation and treatment effect estimation to our setting and discuss implications for model design. We use the resulting insights to propose a novel deep learning method for treatment-specific hazard estimation based on balancing representations. We investigate performance across a range of experimental settings and empirically confirm that our method outperforms baselines by addressing covariate shifts from various sources.
Transformer-based models are popular for natural language processing (NLP) tasks due to its powerful capacity. As the core component, self-attention module has aroused widespread interests. Attention map visualization of a pre-trained model is one direct method for understanding self-attention mechanism and some common patterns are observed in visualization. Based on these patterns, a series of efficient transformers are proposed with corresponding sparse attention masks. Besides above empirical results, universal approximability of Transformer-based models is also discovered from a theoretical perspective. However, above understanding and analysis of self-attention is based on a pre-trained model. To rethink the importance analysis in self-attention, we delve into dynamics of attention matrix importance during pre-training. One of surprising results is that the diagonal elements in the attention map are the most unimportant compared with other attention positions and we also provide a proof to show these elements can be removed without damaging the model performance. Furthermore, we propose a Differentiable Attention Mask (DAM) algorithm, which can be also applied in guidance of SparseBERT design further. The extensive experiments verify our interesting findings and illustrate the effect of our proposed algorithm.
The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.
Time series modeling has attracted extensive research efforts; however, achieving both reliable efficiency and interpretability from a unified model still remains a challenging problem. Among the literature, shapelets offer interpretable and explanatory insights in the classification tasks, while most existing works ignore the differing representative power at different time slices, as well as (more importantly) the evolution pattern of shapelets. In this paper, we propose to extract time-aware shapelets by designing a two-level timing factor. Moreover, we define and construct the shapelet evolution graph, which captures how shapelets evolve over time and can be incorporated into the time series embeddings by graph embedding algorithms. To validate whether the representations obtained in this way can be applied effectively in various scenarios, we conduct experiments based on three public time series datasets, and two real-world datasets from different domains. Experimental results clearly show the improvements achieved by our approach compared with 17 state-of-the-art baselines.
Target-Based Sentiment Analysis aims to detect the opinion aspects (aspect extraction) and the sentiment polarities (sentiment detection) towards them. Both the previous pipeline and integrated methods fail to precisely model the innate connection between these two objectives. In this paper, we propose a novel dynamic heterogeneous graph to jointly model the two objectives in an explicit way. Both the ordinary words and sentiment labels are treated as nodes in the heterogeneous graph, so that the aspect words can interact with the sentiment information. The graph is initialized with multiple types of dependencies, and dynamically modified during real-time prediction. Experiments on the benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models. Further analysis demonstrates that our model obtains significant performance gain on the challenging instances under multiple-opinion aspects and no-opinion aspect situations.
To make deliberate progress towards more intelligent and more human-like artificial systems, we need to be following an appropriate feedback signal: we need to be able to define and evaluate intelligence in a way that enables comparisons between two systems, as well as comparisons with humans. Over the past hundred years, there has been an abundance of attempts to define and measure intelligence, across both the fields of psychology and AI. We summarize and critically assess these definitions and evaluation approaches, while making apparent the two historical conceptions of intelligence that have implicitly guided them. We note that in practice, the contemporary AI community still gravitates towards benchmarking intelligence by comparing the skill exhibited by AIs and humans at specific tasks such as board games and video games. We argue that solely measuring skill at any given task falls short of measuring intelligence, because skill is heavily modulated by prior knowledge and experience: unlimited priors or unlimited training data allow experimenters to "buy" arbitrary levels of skills for a system, in a way that masks the system's own generalization power. We then articulate a new formal definition of intelligence based on Algorithmic Information Theory, describing intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency and highlighting the concepts of scope, generalization difficulty, priors, and experience. Using this definition, we propose a set of guidelines for what a general AI benchmark should look like. Finally, we present a benchmark closely following these guidelines, the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), built upon an explicit set of priors designed to be as close as possible to innate human priors. We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.
While graph kernels (GKs) are easy to train and enjoy provable theoretical guarantees, their practical performances are limited by their expressive power, as the kernel function often depends on hand-crafted combinatorial features of graphs. Compared to graph kernels, graph neural networks (GNNs) usually achieve better practical performance, as GNNs use multi-layer architectures and non-linear activation functions to extract high-order information of graphs as features. However, due to the large number of hyper-parameters and the non-convex nature of the training procedure, GNNs are harder to train. Theoretical guarantees of GNNs are also not well-understood. Furthermore, the expressive power of GNNs scales with the number of parameters, and thus it is hard to exploit the full power of GNNs when computing resources are limited. The current paper presents a new class of graph kernels, Graph Neural Tangent Kernels (GNTKs), which correspond to infinitely wide multi-layer GNNs trained by gradient descent. GNTKs enjoy the full expressive power of GNNs and inherit advantages of GKs. Theoretically, we show GNTKs provably learn a class of smooth functions on graphs. Empirically, we test GNTKs on graph classification datasets and show they achieve strong performance.
Aspect-level sentiment classification aims to distinguish the sentiment polarities over one or more aspect terms in a sentence. Existing approaches mostly model different aspects in one sentence independently, which ignore the sentiment dependencies between different aspects. However, we find such dependency information between different aspects can bring additional valuable information. In this paper, we propose a novel aspect-level sentiment classification model based on graph convolutional networks (GCN) which can effectively capture the sentiment dependencies between multi-aspects in one sentence. Our model firstly introduces bidirectional attention mechanism with position encoding to model aspect-specific representations between each aspect and its context words, then employs GCN over the attention mechanism to capture the sentiment dependencies between different aspects in one sentence. We evaluate the proposed approach on the SemEval 2014 datasets. Experiments show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. We also conduct experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of GCN module, which indicates that the dependencies between different aspects is highly helpful in aspect-level sentiment classification.
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