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Current challenges of the manufacturing industry require modular and changeable manufacturing systems that can be adapted to variable conditions with little effort. At the same time, production recipes typically represent important company know-how that should not be directly tied to changing plant configurations. Thus, there is a need to model general production recipes independent of specific plant layouts. For execution of such a recipe however, a binding to then available production resources needs to be made. In this contribution, select a suitable modeling language to model and execute such recipes. Furthermore, we present an approach to solve the issue of recipe modeling and execution in modular plants using semantically modeled capabilities and skills as well as BPMN. We make use of BPMN to model \emph{capability processes}, i.e. production processes referencing abstract descriptions of resource functions. These capability processes are not bound to a certain plant layout, as there can be multiple resources fulfilling the same capability. For execution, every capability in a capability process is replaced by a skill realizing it, effectively creating a \emph{skill process} consisting of various skill invocations. The presented solution is capable of orchestrating and executing complex processes that integrate production steps with typical IT functionalities such as error handling, user interactions and notifications. Benefits of the approach are demonstrated using a flexible manufacturing system.

We introduce a new distortion measure for point processes called functional-covering distortion. It is inspired by intensity theory and is related to both the covering of point processes and logarithmic loss distortion. We obtain the distortion-rate function with feedforward under this distortion measure for a large class of point processes. For Poisson processes, the rate-distortion function is obtained under a general condition called constrained functional-covering distortion, of which both covering and functional-covering are special cases. Also for Poisson processes, we characterize the rate-distortion region for a two-encoder CEO problem and show that feedforward does not enlarge this region.

Satellites and their instruments are subject to the motion stability throughout their lifetimes. The reliability of the large flexible space structures (LFSS) is particularly important for the motion stability of satellites and their instruments. In this paper, the reliability analysis of large flexible space structures is conducted based on Bayesian support vector regression (SVR). The kinematic model of a typical large flexible space structure is first established. Based on the kinematic model, the surrogate model of the motion of the large flexible space structure is then developed to further reduce the computational cost. Finally, the reliability analysis is conducted using the surrogate model. The proposed method shows high accuracy and efficiency for the reliability assessments of the typical large flexible space structure and can be further developed for other LFSS.

Gaussian process regression is increasingly applied for learning unknown dynamical systems. In particular, the implicit quantification of the uncertainty of the learned model makes it a promising approach for safety-critical applications. When using Gaussian process regression to learn unknown systems, a commonly considered approach consists of learning the residual dynamics after applying some generic discretization technique, which might however disregard properties of the underlying physical system. Variational integrators are a less common yet promising approach to discretization, as they retain physical properties of the underlying system, such as energy conservation and satisfaction of explicit kinematic constraints. In this work, we present a novel structure-preserving learning-based modelling approach that combines a variational integrator for the nominal dynamics of a mechanical system and learning residual dynamics with Gaussian process regression. We extend our approach to systems with known kinematic constraints and provide formal bounds on the prediction uncertainty. The simulative evaluation of the proposed method shows desirable energy conservation properties in accordance with general theoretical results and demonstrates exact constraint satisfaction for constrained dynamical systems.

In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its $\ell_1/\ell_2$-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and source are sufficiently close to each other, these bounds could be improved over those of the classical penalized estimator using only target data under mild conditions. When we don't know which sources to transfer, an algorithm-free transferable source detection approach is introduced to detect informative sources. The detection consistency is proved under the high-dimensional GLM transfer learning setting. We also propose an algorithm to construct confidence intervals of each coefficient component, and the corresponding theories are provided. Extensive simulations and a real-data experiment verify the effectiveness of our algorithms. We implement the proposed GLM transfer learning algorithms in a new R package glmtrans, which is available on CRAN.

A High-dimensional and sparse (HiDS) matrix is frequently encountered in a big data-related application like an e-commerce system or a social network services system. To perform highly accurate representation learning on it is of great significance owing to the great desire of extracting latent knowledge and patterns from it. Latent factor analysis (LFA), which represents an HiDS matrix by learning the low-rank embeddings based on its observed entries only, is one of the most effective and efficient approaches to this issue. However, most existing LFA-based models perform such embeddings on a HiDS matrix directly without exploiting its hidden graph structures, thereby resulting in accuracy loss. To address this issue, this paper proposes a graph-incorporated latent factor analysis (GLFA) model. It adopts two-fold ideas: 1) a graph is constructed for identifying the hidden high-order interaction (HOI) among nodes described by an HiDS matrix, and 2) a recurrent LFA structure is carefully designed with the incorporation of HOI, thereby improving the representa-tion learning ability of a resultant model. Experimental results on three real-world datasets demonstrate that GLFA outperforms six state-of-the-art models in predicting the missing data of an HiDS matrix, which evidently supports its strong representation learning ability to HiDS data.

Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.

Latent Gaussian models and boosting are widely used techniques in statistics and machine learning. Tree-boosting shows excellent prediction accuracy on many data sets, but potential drawbacks are that it assumes conditional independence of samples, produces discontinuous predictions for, e.g., spatial data, and it can have difficulty with high-cardinality categorical variables. Latent Gaussian models, such as Gaussian process and grouped random effects models, are flexible prior models which explicitly model dependence among samples and which allow for efficient learning of predictor functions and for making probabilistic predictions. However, existing latent Gaussian models usually assume either a zero or a linear prior mean function which can be an unrealistic assumption. This article introduces a novel approach that combines boosting and latent Gaussian models to remedy the above-mentioned drawbacks and to leverage the advantages of both techniques. We obtain increased prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches in both simulated and real-world data experiments.