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This work aims at making a comprehensive contribution in the general area of parametric inference for partially observed diffusion processes. Established approaches for likelihood-based estimation invoke a numerical time-discretisation scheme for the approximation of the (typically intractable) transition dynamics of the Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) model over finite time periods. The scheme is applied for a step-size that is either a user-selected tuning parameter or determined by the data. Recent research has highlighted the critical effect of the choice of numerical scheme on the behaviour of derived parameter estimates in the setting of hypo-elliptic SDEs. In brief, in our work, first, we develop two weak second order `sampling schemes' (to cover both the hypo-elliptic and elliptic SDE classes) and generate accompanying `transition density schemes' of the SDE (i.e., approximations of the SDE transition density). Then, we produce a collection of analytic results, providing a complete theoretical framework that solidifies the proposed schemes and showcases advantages from their incorporation within SDE calibration methods. We present numerical results from carrying out classical or Bayesian inference, for both elliptic and hypo-elliptic SDE models.

In this work we analyze the inverse problem of recovering the space-dependent potential coefficient in an elliptic / parabolic problem from distributed observation. We establish novel (weighted) conditional stability estimates under very mild conditions on the problem data. Then we provide an error analysis of a standard reconstruction scheme based on the standard output least-squares formulation with Tikhonov regularization (by an $H^1$-seminorm penalty), which is then discretized by the Galerkin finite element method with continuous piecewise linear finite elements in space (and also backward Euler method in time for parabolic problems). We present a detailed analysis of the discrete scheme, and provide convergence rates in a weighted $L^2(\Omega)$ for discrete approximations with respect to the exact potential. The error bounds are explicitly dependent on the noise level, regularization parameter and discretization parameter(s). Under suitable conditions, we also derive error estimates in the standard $L^2(\Omega)$ and interior $L^2$ norms. The analysis employs sharp a priori error estimates and nonstandard test functions. Several numerical experiments are given to complement the theoretical analysis.

Many applications, such as system identification, classification of time series, direct and inverse problems in partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification lead to the question of approximation of a non-linear operator between metric spaces $\mathfrak{X}$ and $\mathfrak{Y}$. We study the problem of determining the degree of approximation of such operators on a compact subset $K_\mathfrak{X}\subset \mathfrak{X}$ using a finite amount of information. If $\mathcal{F}: K_\mathfrak{X}\to K_\mathfrak{Y}$, a well established strategy to approximate $\mathcal{F}(F)$ for some $F\in K_\mathfrak{X}$ is to encode $F$ (respectively, $\mathcal{F}(F)$) in terms of a finite number $d$ (repectively $m$) of real numbers. Together with appropriate reconstruction algorithms (decoders), the problem reduces to the approximation of $m$ functions on a compact subset of a high dimensional Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^d$, equivalently, the unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^d$ embedded in $\mathbb{R}^{d+1}$. The problem is challenging because $d$, $m$, as well as the complexity of the approximation on $\mathbb{S}^d$ are all large, and it is necessary to estimate the accuracy keeping track of the inter-dependence of all the approximations involved. In this paper, we establish constructive methods to do this efficiently; i.e., with the constants involved in the estimates on the approximation on $\mathbb{S}^d$ being $\mathcal{O}(d^{1/6})$. We study different smoothness classes for the operators, and also propose a method for approximation of $\mathcal{F}(F)$ using only information in a small neighborhood of $F$, resulting in an effective reduction in the number of parameters involved.

In this paper, we study the almost sure boundedness and the convergence of the stochastic approximation (SA) algorithm. At present, most available convergence proofs are based on the ODE method, and the almost sure boundedness of the iterations is an assumption and not a conclusion. In Borkar-Meyn (2000), it is shown that if the ODE has only one globally attractive equilibrium, then under additional assumptions, the iterations are bounded almost surely, and the SA algorithm converges to the desired solution. Our objective in the present paper is to provide an alternate proof of the above, based on martingale methods, which are simpler and less technical than those based on the ODE method. As a prelude, we prove a new sufficient condition for the global asymptotic stability of an ODE. Next we prove a ``converse'' Lyapunov theorem on the existence of a suitable Lyapunov function with a globally bounded Hessian, for a globally exponentially stable system. Both theorems are of independent interest to researchers in stability theory. Then, using these results, we provide sufficient conditions for the almost sure boundedness and the convergence of the SA algorithm. We show through examples that our theory covers some situations that are not covered by currently known results, specifically Borkar-Meyn (2000).

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model (e.g., following retraining), which raises questions about their reliability in real-world applications. Existing attempts towards solving this problem are heuristic, and the robustness to model changes of the resulting CFXs is evaluated with only a small number of retrained models, failing to provide exhaustive guarantees. To remedy this, we propose {\Delta}-robustness, the first notion to formally and deterministically assess the robustness (to model changes) of CFXs for neural networks. We introduce an abstraction framework based on interval neural networks to verify the {\Delta}-robustness of CFXs against a possibly infinite set of changes to the model parameters, i.e., weights and biases. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach in two distinct ways. First, we analyse the {\Delta}-robustness of a number of CFX generation methods from the literature and show that they unanimously host significant deficiencies in this regard. Second, we demonstrate how embedding {\Delta}-robustness within existing methods can provide CFXs which are provably robust.

Computing empirical Wasserstein distance in the independence test is an optimal transport (OT) problem with a special structure. This observation inspires us to study a special type of OT problem and propose a modified Hungarian algorithm to solve it exactly. For an OT problem involving two marginals with $m$ and $n$ atoms ($m\geq n$), respectively, the computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is $O(m^2n)$. Computing the empirical Wasserstein distance in the independence test requires solving this special type of OT problem, where $m=n^2$. The associated computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is $O(n^5)$, while the order of applying the classic Hungarian algorithm is $O(n^6)$. In addition to the aforementioned special type of OT problem, it is shown that the modified Hungarian algorithm could be adopted to solve a wider range of OT problems. Broader applications of the proposed algorithm are discussed -- solving the one-to-many and the many-to-many assignment problems. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate our theoretical results. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed modified Hungarian algorithm compares favorably with the Hungarian algorithm and the well-known Sinkhorn algorithm.

This paper makes 3 contributions. First, it generalizes the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Central Limit Theorems to Hilbert Spaces by way of $L^2$. Second, it generalizes these results to spaces in which sample failure and missingness can occur. Finally, it shows that satisfaction of the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Conditions in such spaces implies the satisfaction of the conditions in the completely observed space, and how this guarantees the consistency of inferences from the partial functional data. These latter two results are especially important given the increasing attention to statistical inference with partially observed functional data. This paper goes beyond previous research by providing simple boundedness conditions which guarantee that \textit{all} inferences, as opposed to some proper subset of them, will be consistently estimated. This is shown primarily by aggregating conditional expectations with respect to the space of missingness patterns. This paper appears to be the first to apply this technique.

Variational Bayes methods are a scalable estimation approach for many complex state space models. However, existing methods exhibit a trade-off between accurate estimation and computational efficiency. This paper proposes a variational approximation that mitigates this trade-off. This approximation is based on importance densities that have been proposed in the context of efficient importance sampling. By directly conditioning on the observed data, the proposed method produces an accurate approximation to the exact posterior distribution. Because the steps required for its calibration are computationally efficient, the approach is faster than existing variational Bayes methods. The proposed method can be applied to any state space model that has a closed-form measurement density function and a state transition distribution that belongs to the exponential family of distributions. We illustrate the method in numerical experiments with stochastic volatility models and a macroeconomic empirical application using a high-dimensional state space model.

We introduce an integral representation of the Monge-Amp\`ere equation, which leads to a new finite difference method based upon numerical quadrature. The resulting scheme is monotone and fits immediately into existing convergence proofs for the Monge-Amp\`ere equation with either Dirichlet or optimal transport boundary conditions. The use of higher-order quadrature schemes allows for substantial reduction in the component of the error that depends on the angular resolution of the finite difference stencil. This, in turn, allows for significant improvements in both stencil width and formal truncation error. The resulting schemes can achieve a formal accuracy that is arbitrarily close to $\mathcal{O}(h^2)$, which is the optimal consistency order for monotone approximations of second order operators. We present three different implementations of this method. The first two exploit the spectral accuracy of the trapezoid rule on uniform angular discretizations to allow for computation on a nearest-neighbors finite difference stencil over a large range of grid refinements. The third uses higher-order quadrature to produce superlinear convergence while simultaneously utilizing narrower stencils than other monotone methods. Computational results are presented in two dimensions for problems of various regularity.

Causal phenomena associated with rare events frequently occur across a wide range of engineering and mathematical problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links between random variables that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel algorithm that performs statistical independence tests on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. We seek to understand if the state of the dynamical system causally affects the likelihood of the rare event. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to superimpose the occurrences of rare events, thus creating a new dataset, with rare events are better represented, on which conditional independence tests can be more efficiently performed. We provide non-asymptotic bounds for the consistency of our algorithm, and validate the performance of our algorithm across various simulated scenarios, with applications to traffic accidents.