Relational event network data are becoming increasingly available. Consequently, statistical models for such data have also surfaced. These models mainly focus on the analysis of single networks, while in many applications, multiple independent event sequences are observed, which are likely to display similar social interaction dynamics. Furthermore, statistical methods for testing hypotheses about social interaction behavior are underdeveloped. Therefore, the contribution of the current paper is twofold. First, we present a multilevel extension of the dynamic actor-oriented model, which allows researchers to model sender and receiver processes separately. The multilevel formulation enables principled probabilistic borrowing of information across networks to accurately estimate drivers of social dynamics. Second, a flexible methodology is proposed to test hypotheses about common and heterogeneous social interaction drivers across relational event sequences. Social interaction data between children and teachers in classrooms are used to showcase the methodology.
相關內容
The field of aerial manipulation has seen rapid advances, transitioning from push-and-slide tasks to interaction with articulated objects. So far, when more complex actions are performed, the motion trajectory is usually handcrafted or a result of online optimization methods like Model Predictive Control (MPC) or Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control. However, these methods rely on heuristics or model simplifications to efficiently run on onboard hardware, producing results in acceptable amounts of time. Moreover, they can be sensitive to disturbances and differences between the real environment and its simulated counterpart. In this work, we propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach to learn motion behaviors for a manipulation task while producing policies that are robust to disturbances and modeling errors. Specifically, we train a policy to perform a door-opening task with an Omnidirectional Micro Aerial Vehicle (OMAV). The policy is trained in a physics simulator and experiments are presented both in simulation and running onboard the real platform, investigating the simulation to real world transfer. We compare our method against a state-of-the-art MPPI solution, showing a considerable increase in robustness and speed.
In a well-calibrated risk prediction model, the average predicted probability is close to the true event rate for any given subgroup. Such models are reliable across heterogeneous populations and satisfy strong notions of algorithmic fairness. However, the task of auditing a model for strong calibration is well-known to be difficult -- particularly for machine learning (ML) algorithms -- due to the sheer number of potential subgroups. As such, common practice is to only assess calibration with respect to a few predefined subgroups. Recent developments in goodness-of-fit testing offer potential solutions but are not designed for settings with weak signal or where the poorly calibrated subgroup is small, as they either overly subdivide the data or fail to divide the data at all. We introduce a new testing procedure based on the following insight: if we can reorder observations by their expected residuals, there should be a change in the association between the predicted and observed residuals along this sequence if a poorly calibrated subgroup exists. This lets us reframe the problem of calibration testing into one of changepoint detection, for which powerful methods already exist. We begin with introducing a sample-splitting procedure where a portion of the data is used to train a suite of candidate models for predicting the residual, and the remaining data are used to perform a score-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test. To further improve power, we then extend this adaptive CUSUM test to incorporate cross-validation, while maintaining Type I error control under minimal assumptions. Compared to existing methods, the proposed procedure consistently achieved higher power in simulation studies and more than doubled the power when auditing a mortality risk prediction model.
We use a combination of unsupervised clustering and sparsity-promoting inference algorithms to learn locally dominant force balances that explain macroscopic pattern formation in self-organized active particle systems. The self-organized emergence of macroscopic patterns from microscopic interactions between self-propelled particles can be widely observed nature. Although hydrodynamic theories help us better understand the physical basis of this phenomenon, identifying a sufficient set of local interactions that shape, regulate, and sustain self-organized structures in active particle systems remains challenging. We investigate a classic hydrodynamic model of self-propelled particles that produces a wide variety of patterns, like asters and moving density bands. Our data-driven analysis shows that propagating bands are formed by local alignment interactions driven by density gradients, while steady-state asters are shaped by a mechanism of splay-induced negative compressibility arising from strong particle interactions. Our method also reveals analogous physical principles of pattern formation in a system where the speed of the particle is influenced by local density. This demonstrates the ability of our method to reveal physical commonalities across models. The physical mechanisms inferred from the data are in excellent agreement with analytical scaling arguments and experimental observations.
Autonomous systems in the road transportation network require intelligent mechanisms that cope with uncertainty to foresee the future. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage probabilistic approach for trajectory forecasting: trajectory transformation to displacement space, clustering of displacement time series, trajectory proposals, and ranking proposals. We introduce a new deep feature clustering method, underlying self-conditioned GAN, which copes better with distribution shifts than traditional methods. Additionally, we propose novel distance-based ranking proposals to assign probabilities to the generated trajectories that are more efficient yet accurate than an auxiliary neural network. The overall system surpasses context-free deep generative models in human and road agents trajectory data while performing similarly to point estimators when comparing the most probable trajectory.
Non-linear model predictive control (nMPC) is a powerful approach to control complex robots (such as humanoids, quadrupeds, or unmanned aerial manipulators (UAMs)) as it brings important advantages over other existing techniques. The full-body dynamics, along with the prediction capability of the optimal control problem (OCP) solved at the core of the controller, allows to actuate the robot in line with its dynamics. This fact enhances the robot capabilities and allows, e.g., to perform intricate maneuvers at high dynamics while optimizing the amount of energy used. Despite the many similarities between humanoids or quadrupeds and UAMs, full-body torque-level nMPC has rarely been applied to UAMs. This paper provides a thorough description of how to use such techniques in the field of aerial manipulation. We give a detailed explanation of the different parts involved in the OCP, from the UAM dynamical model to the residuals in the cost function. We develop and compare three different nMPC controllers: Weighted MPC, Rail MPC, and Carrot MPC, which differ on the structure of their OCPs and on how these are updated at every time step. To validate the proposed framework, we present a wide variety of simulated case studies. First, we evaluate the trajectory generation problem, i.e., optimal control problems solved offline, involving different kinds of motions (e.g., aggressive maneuvers or contact locomotion) for different types of UAMs. Then, we assess the performance of the three nMPC controllers, i.e., closed-loop controllers solved online, through a variety of realistic simulations. For the benefit of the community, we have made available the source code related to this work.
Deep learning (DL) approaches are being increasingly used for time-series forecasting, with many efforts devoted to designing complex DL models. Recent studies have shown that the DL success is often attributed to effective data representations, fostering the fields of feature engineering and representation learning. However, automated approaches for feature learning are typically limited with respect to incorporating prior knowledge, identifying interactions among variables, and choosing evaluation metrics to ensure that the models are reliable. To improve on these limitations, this paper contributes a novel visual analytics framework, namely TimeTuner, designed to help analysts understand how model behaviors are associated with localized correlations, stationarity, and granularity of time-series representations. The system mainly consists of the following two-stage technique: We first leverage counterfactual explanations to connect the relationships among time-series representations, multivariate features and model predictions. Next, we design multiple coordinated views including a partition-based correlation matrix and juxtaposed bivariate stripes, and provide a set of interactions that allow users to step into the transformation selection process, navigate through the feature space, and reason the model performance. We instantiate TimeTuner with two transformation methods of smoothing and sampling, and demonstrate its applicability on real-world time-series forecasting of univariate sunspots and multivariate air pollutants. Feedback from domain experts indicates that our system can help characterize time-series representations and guide the feature engineering processes.
We establish a connection between stochastic optimal control and generative models based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs), such as recently developed diffusion probabilistic models. In particular, we derive a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation that governs the evolution of the log-densities of the underlying SDE marginals. This perspective allows to transfer methods from optimal control theory to generative modeling. First, we show that the evidence lower bound is a direct consequence of the well-known verification theorem from control theory. Further, we can formulate diffusion-based generative modeling as a minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between suitable measures in path space. Finally, we develop a novel diffusion-based method for sampling from unnormalized densities -- a problem frequently occurring in statistics and computational sciences. We demonstrate that our time-reversed diffusion sampler (DIS) can outperform other diffusion-based sampling approaches on multiple numerical examples.
Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a fundamental task. We propose a novel method of ARMA order identification through projection predictive inference, which benefits from improved stability through the use of a reference model. The procedure consists of two steps: in the first, the practitioner incorporates their understanding of underlying data-generating process into a reference model, which we latterly project onto possibly parsimonious submodels. These submodels are optimally inferred to best replicate the predictive performance of the reference model. We further propose a search heuristic amenable to the ARMA framework. We show that the submodels selected by our procedure exhibit predictive performance at least as good as those chosen by AIC over simulated and real-data experiments, and in some cases out-perform the latter. Finally we show that our procedure is robust to noise, and scales well to larger data.
Algorithms for state estimation of humanoid robots usually assume that the feet remain flat and in a constant position while in contact with the ground. However, this hypothesis is easily violated while walking, especially for human-like gaits with heel-toe motion. This reduces the time during which the contact assumption can be used, or requires higher variances to account for errors. In this paper, we present a novel state estimator based on the extended Kalman filter that can properly handle any contact configuration. We consider multiple inertial measurement units (IMUs) distributed throughout the robot's structure, including on both feet, which are used to track multiple bodies of the robot. This multi-IMU instrumentation setup also has the advantage of allowing the deformations in the robot's structure to be estimated, improving the kinematic model used in the filter. The proposed approach is validated experimentally on the exoskeleton Atalante and is shown to present low drift, performing better than similar single-IMU filters. The obtained trajectory estimates are accurate enough to construct elevation maps that have little distortion with respect to the ground truth.
Many natural language processing tasks solely rely on sparse dependencies between a few tokens in a sentence. Soft attention mechanisms show promising performance in modeling local/global dependencies by soft probabilities between every two tokens, but they are not effective and efficient when applied to long sentences. By contrast, hard attention mechanisms directly select a subset of tokens but are difficult and inefficient to train due to their combinatorial nature. In this paper, we integrate both soft and hard attention into one context fusion model, "reinforced self-attention (ReSA)", for the mutual benefit of each other. In ReSA, a hard attention trims a sequence for a soft self-attention to process, while the soft attention feeds reward signals back to facilitate the training of the hard one. For this purpose, we develop a novel hard attention called "reinforced sequence sampling (RSS)", selecting tokens in parallel and trained via policy gradient. Using two RSS modules, ReSA efficiently extracts the sparse dependencies between each pair of selected tokens. We finally propose an RNN/CNN-free sentence-encoding model, "reinforced self-attention network (ReSAN)", solely based on ReSA. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on both Stanford Natural Language Inference (SNLI) and Sentences Involving Compositional Knowledge (SICK) datasets.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191