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Regression methods dominate the practice of biostatistical analysis, but biostatistical training emphasises the details of regression models and methods ahead of the purposes for which such modelling might be useful. More broadly, statistics is widely understood to provide a body of techniques for "modelling data", underpinned by what we describe as the "true model myth": that the task of the statistician/data analyst is to build a model that closely approximates the true data generating process. By way of our own historical examples and a brief review of mainstream clinical research journals, we describe how this perspective has led to a range of problems in the application of regression methods, including misguided "adjustment" for covariates, misinterpretation of regression coefficients and the widespread fitting of regression models without a clear purpose. We then outline a new approach to the teaching and application of biostatistical methods, which situates them within a framework that first requires clear definition of the substantive research question at hand within one of three categories: descriptive, predictive, or causal. Within this approach, the development and application of (multivariable) regression models, as well as other advanced biostatistical methods, should proceed differently according to the type of question. Regression methods will no doubt remain central to statistical practice as they provide a powerful tool for representing variation in a response or outcome variable as a function of "input" variables, but their conceptualisation and usage should follow from the purpose at hand.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 表示 · CASES · 相似度 · Learning ·
2024 年 11 月 1 日

Methods for analyzing representations in neural systems are increasingly popular tools in neuroscience and mechanistic interpretability. Measures comparing neural activations across conditions, architectures, and species give scalable ways to understand information transformation within different neural networks. However, recent findings show that some metrics respond to spurious signals, leading to misleading results. Establishing benchmark test cases is thus essential for identifying the most reliable metric and potential improvements. We propose that compositional learning in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can provide a test case for dynamical representation alignment metrics. Implementing this case allows us to evaluate if metrics can identify representations that develop throughout learning and determine if representations identified by metrics reflect the network's actual computations. Building both attractor and RNN based test cases, we show that the recently proposed Dynamical Similarity Analysis (DSA) is more noise robust and reliably identifies behaviorally relevant representations compared to prior metrics (Procrustes, CKA). We also demonstrate how such test cases can extend beyond metric evaluation to study new architectures. Specifically, testing DSA in modern (Mamba) state space models suggests that these models, unlike RNNs, may not require changes in recurrent dynamics due to their expressive hidden states. Overall, we develop test cases that showcase how DSA's enhanced ability to detect dynamical motifs makes it highly effective for identifying ongoing computations in RNNs and revealing how networks learn tasks.

We consider the problem of testing and learning from data in the presence of resource constraints, such as limited memory or weak data access, which place limitations on the efficiency and feasibility of testing or learning. In particular, we ask the following question: Could a resource-constrained learner/tester use interaction with a resource-unconstrained but untrusted party to solve a learning or testing problem more efficiently than they could without such an interaction? In this work, we answer this question both abstractly and for concrete problems, in two complementary ways: For a wide variety of scenarios, we prove that a resource-constrained learner cannot gain any advantage through classical interaction with an untrusted prover. As a special case, we show that for the vast majority of testing and learning problems in which quantum memory is a meaningful resource, a memory-constrained quantum algorithm cannot overcome its limitations via classical communication with a memory-unconstrained quantum prover. In contrast, when quantum communication is allowed, we construct a variety of interactive proof protocols, for specific learning and testing problems, which allow memory-constrained quantum verifiers to gain significant advantages through delegation to untrusted provers. These results highlight both the limitations and potential of delegating learning and testing problems to resource-rich but untrusted third parties.

The problem of regression extrapolation, or out-of-distribution generalization, arises when predictions are required at test points outside the range of the training data. In such cases, the non-parametric guarantees for regression methods from both statistics and machine learning typically fail. Based on the theory of tail dependence, we propose a novel statistical extrapolation principle. After a suitable, data-adaptive marginal transformation, it assumes a simple relationship between predictors and the response at the boundary of the training predictor samples. This assumption holds for a wide range of models, including non-parametric regression functions with additive noise. Our semi-parametric method, progression, leverages this extrapolation principle and offers guarantees on the approximation error beyond the training data range. We demonstrate how this principle can be effectively integrated with existing approaches, such as random forests and additive models, to improve extrapolation performance on out-of-distribution samples.

This research explores the interdisciplinary interaction between psychoanalysis and computer science, suggesting a mutually beneficial exchange. Indeed, psychoanalytic concepts can enrich technological applications involving unconscious, elusive aspects of the human factor, such as social media and other interactive digital platforms. Conversely, computer science, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI), can contribute quantitative concepts and methods to psychoanalysis, identifying patterns and emotional cues in human expression. In particular, this research aims to apply computer science methods to establish fundamental relationships between emotions and Lacanian discourses. Such relations are discovered in our approach via empirical investigation and statistical analysis, and are eventually validated in a theoretical (psychoanalytic) way. It is worth noting that, although emotions have been sporadically studied in Lacanian theory, to the best of our knowledge a systematic, detailed investigation of their role is missing. Such fine-grained understanding of the role of emotions can also make the identification of Lacanian discourses more effective and easy in practise. In particular, our methods indicate the emotions with highest differentiation power in terms of corresponding discourses; conversely, we identify for each discourse the most characteristic emotions it admits. As a matter of fact, we develop a method which we call Lacanian Discourse Discovery (LDD), that simplifies (via systematizing) the identification of Lacanian discourses in texts. Although the main contribution of this paper is inherently theoretical (psychoanalytic), it can also facilitate major practical applications in the realm of interactive digital systems. Indeed, our approach can be automated through Artificial Intelligence methods that effectively identify emotions (and corresponding discourses) in texts.

This article introduces novel measures of inaccuracy and divergence based on survival extropy and their dynamic forms and explores their properties and applications. To address the drawbacks of asymmetry and range limitations, we introduce two measures: the survival extropy inaccuracy ratio and symmetric divergence measures. The inaccuracy ratio is utilized for the analysis and classification of images. A goodness-of-fit test for the uniform distribution is developed using the survival extropy divergence. Characterizations of the exponential distribution are derived using the dynamic survival extropy inaccuracy and divergence measures. The article also proposes non-parametric estimators for the divergence measures and conducts simulation studies to validate their performance. Finally, it demonstrates the application of symmetric survival extropy divergence in failure time data analysis.

Traditional implicit generative models are capable of learning highly complex data distributions. However, their training involves distinguishing real data from synthetically generated data using adversarial discriminators, which can lead to unstable training dynamics and mode dropping issues. In this work, we build on the \textit{invariant statistical loss} (ISL) method introduced in \cite{de2024training}, and extend it to handle heavy-tailed and multivariate data distributions. The data generated by many real-world phenomena can only be properly characterised using heavy-tailed probability distributions, and traditional implicit methods struggle to effectively capture their asymptotic behavior. To address this problem, we introduce a generator trained with ISL, that uses input noise from a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD). We refer to this generative scheme as Pareto-ISL for conciseness. Our experiments demonstrate that Pareto-ISL accurately models the tails of the distributions while still effectively capturing their central characteristics. The original ISL function was conceived for 1D data sets. When the actual data is $n$-dimensional, a straightforward extension of the method was obtained by targeting the $n$ marginal distributions of the data. This approach is computationally infeasible and ineffective in high-dimensional spaces. To overcome this, we extend the 1D approach using random projections and define a new loss function suited for multivariate data, keeping problems tractable by adjusting the number of projections. We assess its performance in multidimensional generative modeling and explore its potential as a pretraining technique for generative adversarial networks (GANs) to prevent mode collapse, reporting promising results and highlighting its robustness across various hyperparameter settings.

This study developed a new statistical model and method for analyzing the precision of binary measurement methods from collaborative studies. The model is based on beta-binomial distributions. In other words, it assumes that the sensitivity of each laboratory obeys a beta distribution, and the binary measured values under a given sensitivity follow a binomial distribution. We propose the key precision measures of repeatability and reproducibility for the model, and provide their unbiased estimates. Further, through consideration of a number of statistical test methods for homogeneity of proportions, we propose appropriate methods for determining laboratory effects in the new model. Finally, we apply the results to real-world examples in the fields of food safety and chemical risk assessment and management.

This dissertation studies a fundamental open challenge in deep learning theory: why do deep networks generalize well even while being overparameterized, unregularized and fitting the training data to zero error? In the first part of the thesis, we will empirically study how training deep networks via stochastic gradient descent implicitly controls the networks' capacity. Subsequently, to show how this leads to better generalization, we will derive {\em data-dependent} {\em uniform-convergence-based} generalization bounds with improved dependencies on the parameter count. Uniform convergence has in fact been the most widely used tool in deep learning literature, thanks to its simplicity and generality. Given its popularity, in this thesis, we will also take a step back to identify the fundamental limits of uniform convergence as a tool to explain generalization. In particular, we will show that in some example overparameterized settings, {\em any} uniform convergence bound will provide only a vacuous generalization bound. With this realization in mind, in the last part of the thesis, we will change course and introduce an {\em empirical} technique to estimate generalization using unlabeled data. Our technique does not rely on any notion of uniform-convergece-based complexity and is remarkably precise. We will theoretically show why our technique enjoys such precision. We will conclude by discussing how future work could explore novel ways to incorporate distributional assumptions in generalization bounds (such as in the form of unlabeled data) and explore other tools to derive bounds, perhaps by modifying uniform convergence or by developing completely new tools altogether.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.

When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.

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