We propose a machine learning-based method to build a system of differential equations that approximates the dynamics of 3D electromechanical models for the human heart, accounting for the dependence on a set of parameters. Specifically, our method permits to create a reduced-order model (ROM), written as a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) wherein the forcing term, given by the right-hand side, consists of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), that possibly depends on a set of parameters associated with the electromechanical model to be surrogated. This method is non-intrusive, as it only requires a collection of pressure and volume transients obtained from the full-order model (FOM) of cardiac electromechanics. Once trained, the ANN-based ROM can be coupled with hemodynamic models for the blood circulation external to the heart, in the same manner as the original electromechanical model, but at a dramatically lower computational cost. Indeed, our method allows for real-time numerical simulations of the cardiac function. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on two relevant contexts in cardiac modeling. First, we employ the ANN-based ROM to perform a global sensitivity analysis on both the electromechanical and hemodynamic models. Second, we perform a Bayesian estimation of two parameters starting from noisy measurements of two scalar outputs. In both these cases, replacing the FOM of cardiac electromechanics with the ANN-based ROM makes it possible to perform in a few hours of computational time all the numerical simulations that would be otherwise unaffordable, because of their overwhelming computational cost, if carried out with the FOM. As a matter of fact, our ANN-based ROM is able to speedup the numerical simulations by more than three orders of magnitude.
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We propose nonparametric estimators for the second-order central moments of spherical random fields within a functional data context. We consider a measurement framework where each field among an identically distributed collection of spherical random fields is sampled at a few random directions, possibly subject to measurement error. The collection of fields could be i.i.d. or serially dependent. Though similar setups have already been explored for random functions defined on the unit interval, the nonparametric estimators proposed in the literature often rely on local polynomials, which do not readily extend to the (product) spherical setting. We therefore formulate our estimation procedure as a variational problem involving a generalized Tikhonov regularization term. The latter favours smooth covariance/autocovariance functions, where the smoothness is specified by means of suitable Sobolev-like pseudo-differential operators. Using the machinery of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, we establish representer theorems that fully characterizing the form of our estimators. We determine their uniform rates of convergence as the number of fields diverges, both for the dense (increasing number of spatial samples) and sparse (bounded number of spatial samples) regimes. We moreover validate and demonstrate the practical feasibility of our estimation procedure in a simulation setting, assuming a fixed number of samples per field. Our numerical estimation procedure leverages the sparsity and second-order Kronecker structure of our setup to reduce the computational and memory requirements by approximately three orders of magnitude compared to a naive implementation would require.
In this work, a space-time scheme for goal-oriented a posteriori error estimation is proposed. The error estimator is evaluated using a partition-of-unity dual-weighted residual method. As application, a low mach number combustion equation is considered. In some numerical tests, different interpolation variants are investigated, while observing convergence orders and effectivity indices between true errors (obtained on a sufficiently refined mesh) and the error estimator.
Off-policy learning from multistep returns is crucial for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, particularly in the experience replay setting now commonly used with deep neural networks. Classically, off-policy estimation bias is corrected in a per-decision manner: past temporal-difference errors are re-weighted by the instantaneous Importance Sampling (IS) ratio (via eligibility traces) after each action. Many important off-policy algorithms such as Tree Backup and Retrace rely on this mechanism along with differing protocols for truncating ("cutting") the ratios ("traces") to counteract the excessive variance of the IS estimator. Unfortunately, cutting traces on a per-decision basis is not necessarily efficient; once a trace has been cut according to local information, the effect cannot be reversed later, potentially resulting in the premature truncation of estimated returns and slower learning. In the interest of motivating efficient off-policy algorithms, we propose a multistep operator that permits arbitrary past-dependent traces. We prove that our operator is convergent for policy evaluation, and for optimal control when targeting greedy-in-the-limit policies. Our theorems establish the first convergence guarantees for many existing algorithms including Truncated IS, Non-Markov Retrace, and history-dependent TD($\lambda$). Our theoretical results also provide guidance for the development of new algorithms that jointly consider multiple past decisions for better credit assignment and faster learning.
When mining large datasets in order to predict new data, limitations of the principles behind statistical machine learning pose a serious challenge not only to the Big Data deluge, but also to the traditional assumptions that data generating processes are biased toward low algorithmic complexity. Even when one assumes an underlying algorithmic-informational bias toward simplicity in finite dataset generators, we show that fully automated, with or without access to pseudo-random generators, computable learning algorithms, in particular those of statistical nature used in current approaches to machine learning (including deep learning), can always be deceived, naturally or artificially, by sufficiently large datasets. In particular, we demonstrate that, for every finite learning algorithm, there is a sufficiently large dataset size above which the algorithmic probability of an unpredictable deceiver is an upper bound (up to a multiplicative constant that only depends on the learning algorithm) for the algorithmic probability of any other larger dataset. In other words, very large and complex datasets are as likely to deceive learning algorithms into a "simplicity bubble" as any other particular dataset. These deceiving datasets guarantee that any prediction will diverge from the high-algorithmic-complexity globally optimal solution while converging toward the low-algorithmic-complexity locally optimal solution. We discuss the framework and empirical conditions for circumventing this deceptive phenomenon, moving away from statistical machine learning towards a stronger type of machine learning based on, or motivated by, the intrinsic power of algorithmic information theory and computability theory.
Nowadays, the confidentiality of data and information is of great importance for many companies and organizations. For this reason, they may prefer not to release exact data, but instead to grant researchers access to approximate data. For example, rather than providing the exact measurements of their clients, they may only provide researchers with grouped data, that is, the number of clients falling in each of a set of non-overlapping measurement intervals. The challenge is to estimate the mean and variance structure of the hidden ungrouped data based on the observed grouped data. To tackle this problem, this work considers the exact observed data likelihood and applies the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Monte-Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithms for cases where the hidden data follow a univariate, bivariate, or multivariate normal distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed EM and MCEM algorithms. The well-known Galton data set is considered as an application example.
The difficulty in specifying rewards for many real-world problems has led to an increased focus on learning rewards from human feedback, such as demonstrations. However, there are often many different reward functions that explain the human feedback, leaving agents with uncertainty over what the true reward function is. While most policy optimization approaches handle this uncertainty by optimizing for expected performance, many applications demand risk-averse behavior. We derive a novel policy gradient-style robust optimization approach, PG-BROIL, that optimizes a soft-robust objective that balances expected performance and risk. To the best of our knowledge, PG-BROIL is the first policy optimization algorithm robust to a distribution of reward hypotheses which can scale to continuous MDPs. Results suggest that PG-BROIL can produce a family of behaviors ranging from risk-neutral to risk-averse and outperforms state-of-the-art imitation learning algorithms when learning from ambiguous demonstrations by hedging against uncertainty, rather than seeking to uniquely identify the demonstrator's reward function.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
We present a continuous formulation of machine learning, as a problem in the calculus of variations and differential-integral equations, very much in the spirit of classical numerical analysis and statistical physics. We demonstrate that conventional machine learning models and algorithms, such as the random feature model, the shallow neural network model and the residual neural network model, can all be recovered as particular discretizations of different continuous formulations. We also present examples of new models, such as the flow-based random feature model, and new algorithms, such as the smoothed particle method and spectral method, that arise naturally from this continuous formulation. We discuss how the issues of generalization error and implicit regularization can be studied under this framework.
In this project, we present ShelfNet, a lightweight convolutional neural network for accurate real-time semantic segmentation. Different from the standard encoder-decoder structure, ShelfNet has multiple encoder-decoder branch pairs with skip connections at each spatial level, which looks like a shelf with multiple columns. The shelf-shaped structure provides multiple paths for information flow and improves segmentation accuracy. Inspired by the success of recurrent convolutional neural networks, we use modified residual blocks where two convolutional layers share weights. The shared-weight block enables efficient feature extraction and model size reduction. We tested ShelfNet with ResNet50 and ResNet101 as the backbone respectively: they achieved 59 FPS and 42 FPS respectively on a GTX 1080Ti GPU with a 512x512 input image. ShelfNet achieved high accuracy: on PASCAL VOC 2012 test set, it achieved 84.2% mIoU with ResNet101 backbone and 82.8% mIoU with ResNet50 backbone; it achieved 75.8% mIoU with ResNet50 backbone on Cityscapes dataset. ShelfNet achieved both higher mIoU and faster inference speed compared with state-of-the-art real-time semantic segmentation models. We provide the implementation //github.com/juntang-zhuang/ShelfNet.
This paper reports Deep LOGISMOS approach to 3D tumor segmentation by incorporating boundary information derived from deep contextual learning to LOGISMOS - layered optimal graph image segmentation of multiple objects and surfaces. Accurate and reliable tumor segmentation is essential to tumor growth analysis and treatment selection. A fully convolutional network (FCN), UNet, is first trained using three adjacent 2D patches centered at the tumor, providing contextual UNet segmentation and probability map for each 2D patch. The UNet segmentation is then refined by Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and morphological operations. The refined UNet segmentation is used to provide the initial shape boundary to build a segmentation graph. The cost for each node of the graph is determined by the UNet probability maps. Finally, a max-flow algorithm is employed to find the globally optimal solution thus obtaining the final segmentation. For evaluation, we applied the method to pancreatic tumor segmentation on a dataset of 51 CT scans, among which 30 scans were used for training and 21 for testing. With Deep LOGISMOS, DICE Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Relative Volume Difference (RVD) reached 83.2+-7.8% and 18.6+-17.4% respectively, both are significantly improved (p<0.05) compared with contextual UNet and/or LOGISMOS alone.
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