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Due to the COVID 19 pandemic, smartphone-based proximity tracing systems became of utmost interest. Many of these systems use BLE signals to estimate the distance between two persons. The quality of this method depends on many factors and, therefore, does not always deliver accurate results. In this paper, we present a multi-channel approach to improve proximity classification, and a novel, publicly available data set that contains matched IEEE 802.11 (2.4 GHz and 5 GHz) and BLE signal strength data, measured in four different environments. We have developed and evaluated a combined classification model based on BLE and IEEE 802.11 signals. Our approach significantly improves the distance classification and consequently also the contact tracing accuracy. We are able to achieve good results with our approach in everyday public transport scenarios. However, in our implementation based on IEEE 802.11 probe requests, we also encountered privacy problems and limitations due to the consistency and interval at which such probes are sent. We discuss these limitations and sketch how our approach could be improved to make it suitable for real-world deployment.

The design of effective online caching policies is an increasingly important problem for content distribution networks, online social networks and edge computing services, among other areas. This paper proposes a new algorithmic toolbox for tackling this problem through the lens of optimistic online learning. We build upon the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) framework, which is developed further here to include predictions for the file requests, and we design online caching algorithms for bipartite networks with fixed-size caches or elastic leased caches subject to time-average budget constraints. The predictions are provided by a content recommendation system that influences the users viewing activity and hence can naturally reduce the caching network's uncertainty about future requests. We also extend the framework to learn and utilize the best request predictor in cases where many are available. We prove that the proposed {optimistic} learning caching policies can achieve sub-zero performance loss (regret) for perfect predictions, and maintain the sub-linear regret bound $O(\sqrt T)$, which is the best achievable bound for policies that do not use predictions, even for arbitrary-bad predictions. The performance of the proposed algorithms is evaluated with detailed trace-driven numerical tests.

We consider the problem of training a classification model with group annotated training data. Recent work has established that, if there is distribution shift across different groups, models trained using the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) objective suffer from poor performance on minority groups and that group distributionally robust optimization (Group-DRO) objective is a better alternative. The starting point of this paper is the observation that though Group-DRO performs better than ERM on minority groups for some benchmark datasets, there are several other datasets where it performs much worse than ERM. Inspired by ideas from the closely related problem of domain generalization, this paper proposes a new and simple algorithm that explicitly encourages learning of features that are shared across various groups. The key insight behind our proposed algorithm is that while Group-DRO focuses on groups with worst regularized loss, focusing instead, on groups that enable better performance even on other groups, could lead to learning of shared/common features, thereby enhancing minority performance beyond what is achieved by Group-DRO. Empirically, we show that our proposed algorithm matches or achieves better performance compared to strong contemporary baselines including ERM and Group-DRO on standard benchmarks on both minority groups and across all groups. Theoretically, we show that the proposed algorithm is a descent method and finds first order stationary points of smooth nonconvex functions.

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.

Contrastive learning has led to substantial improvements in the quality of learned embedding representations for tasks such as image classification. However, a key drawback of existing contrastive augmentation methods is that they may lead to the modification of the image content which can yield undesired alterations of its semantics. This can affect the performance of the model on downstream tasks. Hence, in this paper, we ask whether we can augment image data in contrastive learning such that the task-relevant semantic content of an image is preserved. For this purpose, we propose to leverage saliency-based explanation methods to create content-preserving masked augmentations for contrastive learning. Our novel explanation-driven supervised contrastive learning (ExCon) methodology critically serves the dual goals of encouraging nearby image embeddings to have similar content and explanation. To quantify the impact of ExCon, we conduct experiments on the CIFAR-100 and the Tiny ImageNet datasets. We demonstrate that ExCon outperforms vanilla supervised contrastive learning in terms of classification, explanation quality, adversarial robustness as well as probabilistic calibration in the context of distributional shift.

At the same time that AI and machine learning are becoming central to human life, their potential harms become more vivid. In the presence of such drawbacks, a critical question one needs to address before using these data-driven technologies to make a decision is whether to trust their outcomes. Aligned with recent efforts on data-centric AI, this paper proposes a novel approach to address the trust question through the lens of data, by associating data sets with distrust quantification that specify their scope of use for predicting future query points. The distrust values raise warning signals when a prediction based on a dataset is questionable and are valuable alongside other techniques for trustworthy AI. We propose novel algorithms for computing the distrust values in the neighborhood of a query point efficiently and effectively. Learning the necessary components of the measures from the data itself, our sub-linear algorithms scale to very large and multi-dimensional settings. Besides demonstrating the efficiency of our algorithms, our extensive experiments reflect a consistent correlation between distrust values and model performance. This underscores the message that when the distrust value of a query point is high, the prediction outcome should be discarded or at least not considered for critical decisions.

An ideal learned representation should display transferability and robustness. Supervised contrastive learning (SupCon) is a promising method for training accurate models, but produces representations that do not capture these properties due to class collapse -- when all points in a class map to the same representation. Recent work suggests that "spreading out" these representations improves them, but the precise mechanism is poorly understood. We argue that creating spread alone is insufficient for better representations, since spread is invariant to permutations within classes. Instead, both the correct degree of spread and a mechanism for breaking this invariance are necessary. We first prove that adding a weighted class-conditional InfoNCE loss to SupCon controls the degree of spread. Next, we study three mechanisms to break permutation invariance: using a constrained encoder, adding a class-conditional autoencoder, and using data augmentation. We show that the latter two encourage clustering of latent subclasses under more realistic conditions than the former. Using these insights, we show that adding a properly-weighted class-conditional InfoNCE loss and a class-conditional autoencoder to SupCon achieves 11.1 points of lift on coarse-to-fine transfer across 5 standard datasets and 4.7 points on worst-group robustness on 3 datasets, setting state-of-the-art on CelebA by 11.5 points.

We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates model uncertainty and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods and neural network). In particular, for a learned nonlinear model $f(\mathbf{x})$, we consider quantifying the importance of an input variable $\mathbf{x}^j$ using the integrated gradient measure $\psi_j = \Vert \frac{\partial}{\partial \mathbf{x}^j} f(\mathbf{x})\Vert^2_2$. We then (1) provide a principled approach for quantifying variable selection uncertainty by deriving its posterior distribution, and (2) show that the approach is generalizable even to non-differentiable models such as tree ensembles. Rigorous Bayesian nonparametric theorems are derived to guarantee the posterior consistency and asymptotic uncertainty of the proposed approach. Extensive simulation confirms that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing classic and recent variable selection methods.

Obtaining a dynamic population distribution is key to many decision-making processes such as urban planning, disaster management and most importantly helping the government to better allocate socio-technical supply. For the aspiration of these objectives, good population data is essential. The traditional method of collecting population data through the census is expensive and tedious. In recent years, machine learning methods have been developed to estimate the population distribution. Most of the methods use data sets that are either developed on a small scale or not publicly available yet. Thus, the development and evaluation of the new methods become challenging. We fill this gap by providing a comprehensive data set for population estimation in 98 European cities. The data set comprises digital elevation model, local climate zone, land use classifications, nighttime lights in combination with multi-spectral Sentinel-2 imagery, and data from the Open Street Map initiative. We anticipate that it would be a valuable addition to the research community for the development of sophisticated machine learning-based approaches in the field of population estimation.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.