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After just a few hundred training updates, a standard probabilistic model for language generation has likely not yet learnt many semantic or syntactic rules of natural language, making it difficult to estimate the probability distribution over next tokens. Yet around this point, these models have identified a simple, loss-minimising behaviour: to output the unigram distribution of the target training corpus. The use of such a heuristic raises the question: Can we initialise our models with this behaviour and save precious compute resources and model capacity? Here we show that we can effectively endow standard neural language generation models with a separate module that reflects unigram frequency statistics as prior knowledge, simply by initialising the bias term in a model's final linear layer with the log-unigram distribution. We use neural machine translation as a test bed for this simple technique and observe that it: (i) improves learning efficiency; (ii) achieves better overall performance; and perhaps most importantly (iii) appears to disentangle strong frequency effects by encouraging the model to specialise in non-frequency-related aspects of language.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are powerful models able to synthesize data samples closely resembling the distribution of real data, yet the diversity of those generated samples is limited due to the so-called mode collapse phenomenon observed in GANs. Especially prone to mode collapse are conditional GANs, which tend to ignore the input noise vector and focus on the conditional information. Recent methods proposed to mitigate this limitation increase the diversity of generated samples, yet they reduce the performance of the models when similarity of samples is required. To address this shortcoming, we propose a novel method to selectively increase the diversity of GAN-generated samples. By adding a simple, yet effective regularization to the training loss function we encourage the generator to discover new data modes for inputs related to diverse outputs while generating consistent samples for the remaining ones. More precisely, we maximise the ratio of distances between generated images and input latent vectors scaling the effect according to the diversity of samples for a given conditional input. We show the superiority of our method in a synthetic benchmark as well as a real-life scenario of simulating data from the Zero Degree Calorimeter of ALICE experiment in LHC, CERN.

In this note, we investigate the non-identifiability of the multivariate unified skew-normal distribution under permutation of its latent variables. We show that the non-identifiability issue also holds with other parametrizations and extends to the family of unified skew-elliptical distributions and more generally to selection distibutions. We provide several suggestions to make the unified skew-normal model identifiable and describe various sub-models that are identifiable.

In the automotive industry, the sequence of vehicles to be produced is determined ahead of the production day. However, there are some vehicles, failed vehicles, that cannot be produced due to some reasons such as material shortage or paint failure. These vehicles are pulled out of the sequence, and the vehicles in the succeeding positions are moved forward, potentially resulting in challenges for logistics or other scheduling concerns. This paper proposes a two-stage stochastic program for the mixed-model sequencing (MMS) problem with stochastic product failures, and provides improvements to the second-stage problem. To tackle the exponential number of scenarios, we employ the sample average approximation approach and two solution methodologies. On one hand, we develop an L-shaped decomposition-based algorithm, where the computational experiments show its superiority over solving the deterministic equivalent formulation with an off-the-shelf solver. Moreover, we provide a tabu search algorithm in addition to a greedy heuristic to tackle case study instances inspired by our car manufacturer partner. Numerical experiments show that the proposed solution methodologies generate high quality solutions by utilizing a sample of scenarios. Particularly, a robust sequence that is generated by considering car failures can decrease the expected work overload by more than 20\% for both small- and large-sized instances.

Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadratic score and multivariate continuous ranked probability score. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to generate new scoring rules. In some multivariate contexts, it is a forecast of a level set that is needed, such as a density level set for anomaly detection or the level set of the cumulative distribution as a measure of risk. This motivates consideration of scoring functions for such level sets. For univariate distributions, it is well-established that the continuous ranked probability score can be expressed as the integral over a quantile score. We show that, in a similar way, scoring rules for multivariate distributions can be decomposed to obtain scoring functions for level sets. Using this, we present scoring functions for different types of level set, including density level sets and level sets for cumulative distributions. To compute the scores, we propose a simple numerical algorithm. We perform a simulation study to support our proposals, and we use real data to illustrate usefulness for forecast combining and CoVaR estimation.

Design activity -- constructing an artifact description satisfying given goals and constraints -- distinguishes humanity from other animals and traditional machines, and endowing machines with design abilities at the human level or beyond has been a long-term pursuit. Though machines have already demonstrated their abilities in designing new materials, proteins, and computer programs with advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, the search space for designing such objects is relatively small, and thus, "Can machines design like humans?" remains an open question. To explore the boundary of machine design, here we present a new AI approach to automatically design a central processing unit (CPU), the brain of a computer, and one of the world's most intricate devices humanity have ever designed. This approach generates the circuit logic, which is represented by a graph structure called Binary Speculation Diagram (BSD), of the CPU design from only external input-output observations instead of formal program code. During the generation of BSD, Monte Carlo-based expansion and the distance of Boolean functions are used to guarantee accuracy and efficiency, respectively. By efficiently exploring a search space of unprecedented size 10^{10^{540}}, which is the largest one of all machine-designed objects to our best knowledge, and thus pushing the limits of machine design, our approach generates an industrial-scale RISC-V CPU within only 5 hours. The taped-out CPU successfully runs the Linux operating system and performs comparably against the human-designed Intel 80486SX CPU. In addition to learning the world's first CPU only from input-output observations, which may reform the semiconductor industry by significantly reducing the design cycle, our approach even autonomously discovers human knowledge of the von Neumann architecture.

The sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers in the data or deviations from model assumptions is a well known challenge. It has been shown that the popular chain-ladder reserving approach is at significant risk to such aberrant observations in that reserve estimates can be significantly shifted in the presence of even one outlier. As a consequence the chain-ladder reserving technique is non-robust. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model (Mack, 1993). This is done through the derivation of impact functions which are calculated by taking the first derivative of the relevant statistic of interest with respect to an observation. We also provide and discuss the impact functions for quantiles when total reserves are assumed to be lognormally distributed. Additionally, comparisons are made between the impact functions for individual accident year reserves under Mack's Model and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson methodology. It is shown that the impact of incremental claims on these statistics of interest varies widely throughout a loss triangle and is heavily dependent on other cells in the triangle. Results are illustrated using data from a Belgian non-life insurer.

The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question answering or machine translation). However, it builds upon the assumption that the data distribution is stationary, ie. that the data is sampled from a fixed distribution both at training and test time. This way of training is inconsistent with how we as humans are able to learn from and operate within a constantly changing stream of information. Moreover, it is ill-adapted to real-world use cases where the data distribution is expected to shift over the course of a model's lifetime. The first goal of this thesis is to characterize the different forms this shift can take in the context of natural language processing, and propose benchmarks and evaluation metrics to measure its effect on current deep learning architectures. We then proceed to take steps to mitigate the effect of distributional shift on NLP models. To this end, we develop methods based on parametric reformulations of the distributionally robust optimization framework. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches yield more robust models as demonstrated on a selection of realistic problems. In the third and final part of this thesis, we explore ways of efficiently adapting existing models to new domains or tasks. Our contribution to this topic takes inspiration from information geometry to derive a new gradient update rule which alleviate catastrophic forgetting issues during adaptation.

Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.

This paper focuses on two fundamental tasks of graph analysis: community detection and node representation learning, which capture the global and local structures of graphs, respectively. In the current literature, these two tasks are usually independently studied while they are actually highly correlated. We propose a probabilistic generative model called vGraph to learn community membership and node representation collaboratively. Specifically, we assume that each node can be represented as a mixture of communities, and each community is defined as a multinomial distribution over nodes. Both the mixing coefficients and the community distribution are parameterized by the low-dimensional representations of the nodes and communities. We designed an effective variational inference algorithm which regularizes the community membership of neighboring nodes to be similar in the latent space. Experimental results on multiple real-world graphs show that vGraph is very effective in both community detection and node representation learning, outperforming many competitive baselines in both tasks. We show that the framework of vGraph is quite flexible and can be easily extended to detect hierarchical communities.