In recent decades, the use of optical detection systems for meteor studies has increased dramatically, resulting in huge amounts of data being analyzed. Automated meteor detection tools are essential for studying the continuous meteoroid incoming flux, recovering fresh meteorites, and achieving a better understanding of our Solar System. Concerning meteor detection, distinguishing false positives between meteor and non-meteor images has traditionally been performed by hand, which is significantly time-consuming. To address this issue, we developed a fully automated pipeline that uses Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify candidate meteor detections. Our new method is able to detect meteors even in images that contain static elements such as clouds, the Moon, and buildings. To accurately locate the meteor within each frame, we employ the Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) technique. This method facilitates the identification of the region of interest by multiplying the activations from the last convolutional layer with the average of the gradients across the feature map of that layer. By combining these findings with the activation map derived from the first convolutional layer, we effectively pinpoint the most probable pixel location of the meteor. We trained and evaluated our model on a large dataset collected by the Spanish Meteor Network (SPMN) and achieved a precision of 98\%. Our new methodology presented here has the potential to reduce the workload of meteor scientists and station operators and improve the accuracy of meteor tracking and classification.
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Due to their intrinsic capabilities on parallel signal processing, optical neural networks (ONNs) have attracted extensive interests recently as a potential alternative to electronic artificial neural networks (ANNs) with reduced power consumption and low latency. Preliminary confirmation of the parallelism in optical computing has been widely done by applying the technology of wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) in the linear transformation part of neural networks. However, inter-channel crosstalk has obstructed WDM technologies to be deployed in nonlinear activation in ONNs. Here, we propose a universal WDM structure called multiplexed neuron sets (MNS) which apply WDM technologies to optical neurons and enable ONNs to be further compressed. A corresponding back-propagation (BP) training algorithm is proposed to alleviate or even cancel the influence of inter-channel crosstalk on MNS-based WDM-ONNs. For simplicity, semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOAs) are employed as an example of MNS to construct a WDM-ONN trained with the new algorithm. The result shows that the combination of MNS and the corresponding BP training algorithm significantly downsize the system and improve the energy efficiency to tens of times while giving similar performance to traditional ONNs.
Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a theory-guided machine learning approach that employs a generalized Bayesian algorithm to make ensemble forecasts. We employ Lipschitz predictors and determine fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds in the batch learning setting. Performing causal forecast is a highlight of our methodology as its potential application to data with spatial and temporal short and long-range dependence. We then test the performance of our learning methodology by using linear predictors and data sets simulated from a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
In survival analysis, complex machine learning algorithms have been increasingly used for predictive modeling. Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. In particular, in HIV vaccine trials, participant baseline characteristics are used to predict the probability of infection over the intended follow-up period, and investigators may wish to understand how much certain types of predictors, such as behavioral factors, contribute toward overall predictiveness. Time-to-event outcomes such as time to infection are often subject to right censoring, and existing methods for assessing variable importance are typically not intended to be used in this setting. We describe a broad class of algorithm-agnostic variable importance measures for prediction in the context of survival data. We propose a nonparametric efficient estimation procedure that incorporates flexible learning of nuisance parameters, yields asymptotically valid inference, and enjoys double-robustness. We assess the performance of our proposed procedure via numerical simulations and analyze data from the HVTN 702 study to inform enrollment strategies for future HIV vaccine trials.
Semantic segmentation is a complex task that relies heavily on large amounts of annotated image data. However, annotating such data can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, especially in the medical domain. Active Learning (AL) is a popular approach that can help to reduce this burden by iteratively selecting images for annotation to improve the model performance. In the case of video data, it is important to consider the model uncertainty and the temporal nature of the sequences when selecting images for annotation. This work proposes a novel AL strategy for surgery video segmentation, COWAL, COrrelation-aWare Active Learning. Our approach involves projecting images into a latent space that has been fine-tuned using contrastive learning and then selecting a fixed number of representative images from local clusters of video frames. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on two video datasets of surgical instruments and three real-world video datasets. The datasets and code will be made publicly available upon receiving necessary approvals.
Model-free and data-driven prediction of tipping point transitions in nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging and outstanding task in complex systems science. We propose a novel, fully data-driven machine learning algorithm based on next-generation reservoir computing to extrapolate the bifurcation behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems using stationary training data samples. We show that this method can extrapolate tipping point transitions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the trained next-generation reservoir computing architecture can be used to predict non-stationary dynamics with time-varying bifurcation parameters. In doing so, post-tipping point dynamics of unseen parameter regions can be simulated.
Human cognition operates on a "Global-first" cognitive mechanism, prioritizing information processing based on coarse-grained details. This mechanism inherently possesses an adaptive multi-granularity description capacity, resulting in computational traits such as efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. The analysis pattern reliance on the finest granularity and single-granularity makes most existing computational methods less efficient, robust, and interpretable, which is an important reason for the current lack of interpretability in neural networks. Multi-granularity granular-ball computing employs granular-balls of varying sizes to daptively represent and envelop the sample space, facilitating learning based on these granular-balls. Given that the number of coarse-grained "granular-balls" is fewer than sample points, granular-ball computing proves more efficient. Moreover, the inherent coarse-grained nature of granular-balls reduces susceptibility to fine-grained sample disturbances, enhancing robustness. The multi-granularity construct of granular-balls generates topological structures and coarse-grained descriptions, naturally augmenting interpretability. Granular-ball computing has successfully ventured into diverse AI domains, fostering the development of innovative theoretical methods, including granular-ball classifiers, clustering techniques, neural networks, rough sets, and evolutionary computing. This has notably ameliorated the efficiency, noise robustness, and interpretability of traditional methods. Overall, granular-ball computing is a rare and innovative theoretical approach in AI that can adaptively and simultaneously enhance efficiency, robustness, and interpretability. This article delves into the main application landscapes for granular-ball computing, aiming to equip future researchers with references and insights to refine and expand this promising theory.
The joint modeling of multiple longitudinal biomarkers together with a time-to-event outcome is a challenging modeling task of continued scientific interest. In particular, the computational complexity of high dimensional (generalized) mixed effects models often restricts the flexibility of shared parameter joint models, even when the subject-specific marker trajectories follow highly nonlinear courses. We propose a parsimonious multivariate functional principal components representation of the shared random effects. This allows better scalability, as the dimension of the random effects does not directly increase with the number of markers, only with the chosen number of principal component basis functions used in the approximation of the random effects. The functional principal component representation additionally allows to estimate highly flexible subject-specific random trajectories without parametric assumptions. The modeled trajectories can thus be distinctly different for each biomarker. We build on the framework of flexible Bayesian additive joint models implemented in the R-package 'bamlss', which also supports estimation of nonlinear covariate effects via Bayesian P-splines. The flexible yet parsimonious functional principal components basis used in the estimation of the joint model is first estimated in a preliminary step. We validate our approach in a simulation study and illustrate its advantages by analyzing a study on primary biliary cholangitis.
We adopt the integral definition of the fractional Laplace operator and study an optimal control problem on Lipschitz domains that involves a fractional elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) as state equation and a control variable that enters the state equation as a coefficient; pointwise constraints on the control variable are considered as well. We establish the existence of optimal solutions and analyze first and, necessary and sufficient, second order optimality conditions. Regularity estimates for optimal variables are also analyzed. We develop two finite element discretization strategies: a semidiscrete scheme in which the control variable is not discretized, and a fully discrete scheme in which the control variable is discretized with piecewise constant functions. For both schemes, we analyze the convergence properties of discretizations and derive error estimates.
We discuss avoidance of sure loss and coherence results for semicopulas and standardized functions, i.e., for grounded, 1-increasing functions with value $1$ at $(1,1,\ldots, 1)$. We characterize the existence of a $k$-increasing $n$-variate function $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$ for standardized $n$-variate functions $A,B$ and discuss the method for constructing this function. Our proofs also include procedures for extending functions on some countably infinite mesh to functions on the unit box. We provide a characterization when $A$ respectively $B$ coincides with the pointwise infimum respectively supremum of the set of all $k$-increasing $n$-variate functions $C$ fulfilling $A\leq C\leq B$.
When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.
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