Traffic accidents are one of the biggest challenges in a society where commuting is so important. What triggers an accident can be dependent on several subjective parameters and varies within each region, city, or country. In the same way, it is important to understand those parameters in order to provide a knowledge basis to support decisions regarding future cases prevention. The literature presents several works where machine learning algorithms are used for prediction of accidents or severity of accidents, in which city-level datasets were used as evaluation studies. This work attempts to add to the diversity of research, by focusing mainly on concentration of accidents and how machine learning can be used to predict hotspots. This approach demonstrated to be a useful technique for authorities to understand nuances of accident concentration behavior. For the first time, data from the Federal District of Brazil collected from forensic traffic accident analysts were used and combined with data from local weather conditions to predict hotspots of collisions. Out of the five algorithms we considered, two had good performance: Multi-layer Perceptron and Random Forest, with the latter being the best one at 98% accuracy. As a result, we identify that weather parameters are not as important as the accident location, demonstrating that local intervention is important to reduce the number of accidents.
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This work introduces a refinement of the Parsimonious Model for fitting a Gaussian Mixture. The improvement is based on the consideration of clusters of the involved covariance matrices according to a criterion, such as sharing Principal Directions. This and other similarity criteria that arise from the spectral decomposition of a matrix are the bases of the Parsimonious Model. We show that such groupings of covariance matrices can be achieved through simple modifications of the CEM (Classification Expectation Maximization) algorithm. Our approach leads to propose Gaussian Mixture Models for model-based clustering and discriminant analysis, in which covariance matrices are clustered according to a parsimonious criterion, creating intermediate steps between the fourteen widely known parsimonious models. The added versatility not only allows us to obtain models with fewer parameters for fitting the data, but also provides greater interpretability. We show its usefulness for model-based clustering and discriminant analysis, providing algorithms to find approximate solutions verifying suitable size, shape and orientation constraints, and applying them to both simulation and real data examples.
The objective of the KPR agents are to learn themselves in the minimum (learning) time to have maximum success or utilization probability ($f$). A dictator can easily solve the problem with $f = 1$ in no time, by asking every one to form a queue and go to the respective restaurant, resulting in no fluctuation and full utilization from the first day (convergence time $\tau = 0$). It has already been shown that if each agent chooses randomly the restaurants, $f = 1 - e^{-1} \simeq 0.63$ (where $e \simeq 2.718$ denotes the Euler number) in zero time ($\tau = 0$). With the only available information about yesterday's crowd size in the restaurant visited by the agent (as assumed for the rest of the strategies studied here), the crowd avoiding (CA) strategies can give higher values of $f$ but also of $\tau$. Several numerical studies of modified learning strategies actually indicated increased value of $f = 1 - \alpha$ for $\alpha \to 0$, with $\tau \sim 1/\alpha$. We show here using Monte Carlo technique, a modified Greedy Crowd Avoiding (GCA) Strategy can assure full utilization ($f = 1$) in convergence time $\tau \simeq eN$, with of course non-zero probability for an even larger convergence time. All these observations suggest that the strategies with single step memory of the individuals can never collectively achieve full utilization ($f = 1$) in finite convergence time and perhaps the maximum possible utilization that can be achieved is about eighty percent ($f \simeq 0.80$) in an optimal time $\tau$ of order ten, even when $N$ the number of customers or of the restaurants goes to infinity.
The wayward quality of continuous prompts stresses the importance of their interpretability as unexpected and unpredictable behaviors appear following training, especially in the context of large language models automating people-sensitive tasks such as resume screening. In this paper we present a novel method of constructing continuous prompts via discrete prompt embeddings and evaluate improvements to continuous prompt interpretability and inference accuracy. For a set of manually designed discrete prompts $\mathcal{D}$, which we tokenize and embed each into tensor form, we train a model to predict the weights such that the linear combinations of those prompts correspond to higher performance on natural language understanding tasks.
A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered to be an efficient interval estimation technique. In this paper, we offer a first attempt at computing the coverage probability and expected length of a parametric or percentile bootstrap interval by exact probabilistic calculation for any fixed sample size. This method is applied to the basic bootstrap intervals for functions of binomial proportions and a normal mean. None of these intervals, however, are found to have a correct confidence coefficient, which leads to illogical conclusions including that the bootstrap interval is narrower than the z-interval when estimating a normal mean. This raises a general question of how to utilize bootstrap intervals appropriately in practice since the sample size is typically fixed.
Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.
In many settings, such as scientific inference, optimization, and transfer learning, the learner has a well-defined objective, which can be treated as estimation of a target parameter, and no intrinsic interest in characterizing the entire data-generating process. Usually, the learner must also contend with additional sources of uncertainty or variables -- with nuisance parameters. Bayesian active learning, or sequential optimal experimental design, can straightforwardly accommodate the presence of nuisance parameters, and so is a natural active learning framework for such problems. However, the introduction of nuisance parameters can lead to bias in the Bayesian learner's estimate of the target parameters, a phenomenon we refer to as negative interference. We characterize the threat of negative interference and how it fundamentally changes the nature of the Bayesian active learner's task. We show that the extent of negative interference can be extremely large, and that accurate estimation of the nuisance parameters is critical to reducing it. The Bayesian active learner is confronted with a dilemma: whether to spend a finite acquisition budget in pursuit of estimation of the target or of the nuisance parameters. Our setting encompasses Bayesian transfer learning as a special case, and our results shed light on the phenomenon of negative transfer between learning environments.
Inspired by empirical work in neuroscience for Bayesian approaches to brain function, we give a unified probabilistic account of various types of symbolic reasoning from data. We characterise them in terms of formal logic using the classical consequence relation, an empirical consequence relation, maximal consistent sets, maximal possible sets and maximum likelihood estimation. The theory gives new insights into reasoning towards human-like machine intelligence.
Cellular reprogramming can be used for both the prevention and cure of different diseases. However, the efficiency of discovering reprogramming strategies with classical wet-lab experiments is hindered by lengthy time commitments and high costs. In this study, we develop a~novel computational framework based on deep reinforcement learning that facilitates the identification of reprogramming strategies. For this aim, we formulate a~control problem in the context of cellular reprogramming for the frameworks of BNs and PBNs under the asynchronous update mode. Furthermore, we introduce the notion of a~pseudo-attractor and a~procedure for identification of pseudo-attractor state during training. Finally, we devise a~computational framework for solving the control problem, which we test on a~number of different models.
The advent of generative artificial intelligence and the widespread adoption of it in society engendered intensive debates about its ethical implications and risks. These risks often differ from those associated with traditional discriminative machine learning. To synthesize the recent discourse and map its normative concepts, we conducted a scoping review on the ethics of generative artificial intelligence, including especially large language models and text-to-image models. Our analysis provides a taxonomy of 378 normative issues in 19 topic areas and ranks them according to their prevalence in the literature. The study offers a comprehensive overview for scholars, practitioners, or policymakers, condensing the ethical debates surrounding fairness, safety, harmful content, hallucinations, privacy, interaction risks, security, alignment, societal impacts, and others. We discuss the results, evaluate imbalances in the literature, and explore unsubstantiated risk scenarios.
When is heterogeneity in the composition of an autonomous robotic team beneficial and when is it detrimental? We investigate and answer this question in the context of a minimally viable model that examines the role of heterogeneous speeds in perimeter defense problems, where defenders share a total allocated speed budget. We consider two distinct problem settings and develop strategies based on dynamic programming and on local interaction rules. We present a theoretical analysis of both approaches and our results are extensively validated using simulations. Interestingly, our results demonstrate that the viability of heterogeneous teams depends on the amount of information available to the defenders. Moreover, our results suggest a universality property: across a wide range of problem parameters the optimal ratio of the speeds of the defenders remains nearly constant.
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