We describe how to approximate the intractable marginal likelihood that arises when fitting generalized linear mixed models. We prove that non-adaptive quadrature approximations yield high error asymptotically in every statistical model satisfying weak regularity conditions. We derive the rate of error incurred when using adaptive quadrature to approximate the marginal likelihood in a broad class of generalized linear mixed models, which includes non-exponential family response and non-Gaussian random effects distributions. We provide an explicit recommendation for how many quadrature points to use, and show that this recommendation recovers and explains many empirical results from published simulation studies and data analyses. Particular attention is paid to models for dependent binary and survival/time-to-event observations. Code to reproduce results in the manuscript is found at //github.com/awstringer1/glmm-aq-paper-code.
By defining two important terms called basic perturbation vectors and obtaining their linear bounds, we obtain the linear componentwise perturbation bounds for unitary factors and upper triangular factors of the generalized Schur decomposition. The perturbation bounds for the diagonal elements of the upper triangular factors and the generalized invariant subspace are also derived. From the former, we present an upper bound and a condition number of the generalized eigenvalue. Furthermore, with numerical iterative method, the nonlinear componentwise perturbation bounds of the generalized Schur decomposition are also provided. Numerical examples are given to test the obtained bounds. Among them, we compare our upper bound and condition number of the generalized eigenvalue with their counterparts given in the literature. Numerical results show that they are very close to each other but our results don't contain the information on the left and right generalized eigenvectors.
The approximate uniform sampling of graph realizations with a given degree sequence is an everyday task in several social science, computer science, engineering etc. projects. One approach is using Markov chains. The best available current result about the well-studied switch Markov chain is that it is rapidly mixing on P-stable degree sequences (see DOI:10.1016/j.ejc.2021.103421). The switch Markov chain does not change any degree sequence. However, there are cases where degree intervals are specified rather than a single degree sequence. (A natural scenario where this problem arises is in hypothesis testing on social networks that are only partially observed.) Rechner, Strowick, and M\"uller-Hannemann introduced in 2018 the notion of degree interval Markov chain which uses three (separately well-studied) local operations (switch, hinge-flip and toggle), and employing on degree sequence realizations where any two sequences under scrutiny have very small coordinate-wise distance. Recently Amanatidis and Kleer published a beautiful paper (arXiv:2110.09068), showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the sequences are coming from a system of very thin intervals which are centered not far from a regular degree sequence. In this paper we extend substantially their result, showing that the degree interval Markov chain is rapidly mixing if the intervals are centred at P-stable degree sequences.
We propose the AdaPtive Noise Augmentation (PANDA) procedure to regularize the estimation and inference of generalized linear models (GLMs). PANDA iteratively optimizes the objective function given noise augmented data until convergence to obtain the regularized model estimates. The augmented noises are designed to achieve various regularization effects, including $l_0$, bridge (lasso and ridge included), elastic net, adaptive lasso, and SCAD, as well as group lasso and fused ridge. We examine the tail bound of the noise-augmented loss function and establish the almost sure convergence of the noise-augmented loss function and its minimizer to the expected penalized loss function and its minimizer, respectively. We derive the asymptotic distributions for the regularized parameters, based on which, inferences can be obtained simultaneously with variable selection. PANDA exhibits ensemble learning behaviors that help further decrease the generalization error. Computationally, PANDA is easy to code, leveraging existing software for implementing GLMs, without resorting to complicated optimization techniques. We demonstrate the superior or similar performance of PANDA against the existing approaches of the same type of regularizers in simulated and real-life data. We show that the inferences through PANDA achieve nominal or near-nominal coverage and are far more efficient compared to a popular existing post-selection procedure.
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are instrumental for regression analysis with structured dependence, such as grouped, clustered, or multilevel data. However, selection among the covariates--while accounting for this structured dependence--remains a challenge. We introduce a Bayesian decision analysis for subset selection with LMMs. Using a Mahalanobis loss function that incorporates the structured dependence, we derive optimal linear coefficients for (i) any given subset of variables and (ii) all subsets of variables that satisfy a cardinality constraint. Crucially, these estimates inherit shrinkage or regularization and uncertainty quantification from the underlying Bayesian model, and apply for any well-specified Bayesian LMM. More broadly, our decision analysis strategy deemphasizes the role of a single "best" subset, which is often unstable and limited in its information content, and instead favors a collection of near-optimal subsets. This collection is summarized by key member subsets and variable-specific importance metrics. Customized subset search and out-of-sample approximation algorithms are provided for more scalable computing. These tools are applied to simulated data and a longitudinal physical activity dataset, and demonstrate excellent prediction, estimation, and selection ability.
We design and implement LEGOStore, an erasure coding (EC) based linearizable data store over geo-distributed public cloud data centers (DCs). For such a data store, the confluence of the following factors opens up opportunities for EC to be latency-competitive with replication: (a) the necessity of communicating with remote DCs to tolerate entire DC failures and implement linearizability; and (b) the emergence of DCs near most large population centers. LEGOStore employs an optimization framework that, for a given object, carefully chooses among replication and EC, as well as among various DC placements to minimize overall costs. To handle workload dynamism, LEGOStore employs a novel agile reconfiguration protocol. Our evaluation using a LEGOStore prototype spanning 9 Google Cloud Platform DCs demonstrates the efficacy of our ideas. We observe cost savings ranging from moderate (5-20\%) to significant (60\%) over baselines representing the state of the art while meeting tail latency SLOs. Our reconfiguration protocol is able to transition key placements in 3 to 4 inter-DC RTTs ($<$ 1s in our experiments), allowing for agile adaptation to dynamic conditions.
In this article we suggest two discretization methods based on isogeometric analysis (IGA) for planar linear elasticity. On the one hand, we apply the well-known ansatz of weakly imposed symmetry for the stress tensor and obtain a well-posed mixed formulation. Such modified mixed problems have been already studied by different authors. But we concentrate on the exploitation of IGA results to handle also curved boundary geometries. On the other hand, we consider the more complicated situation of strong symmetry, i.e. we discretize the mixed weak form determined by the so-called Hellinger-Reissner variational principle. We show the existence of suitable approximate fields leading to an inf-sup stable saddle-point problem. For both discretization approaches we prove convergence statements and in case of weak symmetry we illustrate the approximation behavior by means of several numerical experiments.
In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its $\ell_1/\ell_2$-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and source are sufficiently close to each other, these bounds could be improved over those of the classical penalized estimator using only target data under mild conditions. When we don't know which sources to transfer, an algorithm-free transferable source detection approach is introduced to detect informative sources. The detection consistency is proved under the high-dimensional GLM transfer learning setting. We also propose an algorithm to construct confidence intervals of each coefficient component, and the corresponding theories are provided. Extensive simulations and a real-data experiment verify the effectiveness of our algorithms. We implement the proposed GLM transfer learning algorithms in a new R package glmtrans, which is available on CRAN.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Universal coding of integers~(UCI) is a class of variable-length code, such that the ratio of the expected codeword length to $\max\{1,H(P)\}$ is within a constant factor, where $H(P)$ is the Shannon entropy of the decreasing probability distribution $P$. However, if we consider the ratio of the expected codeword length to $H(P)$, the ratio tends to infinity by using UCI, when $H(P)$ tends to zero. To solve this issue, this paper introduces a class of codes, termed generalized universal coding of integers~(GUCI), such that the ratio of the expected codeword length to $H(P)$ is within a constant factor $K$. First, the definition of GUCI is proposed and the coding structure of GUCI is introduced. Next, we propose a class of GUCI $\mathcal{C}$ to achieve the expansion factor $K_{\mathcal{C}}=2$ and show that the optimal GUCI is in the range $1\leq K_{\mathcal{C}}^{*}\leq 2$. Then, by comparing UCI and GUCI, we show that when the entropy is very large or $P(0)$ is not large, there are also cases where the average codeword length of GUCI is shorter. Finally, the asymptotically optimal GUCI is presented.
Models for dependent data are distinguished by their targets of inference. Marginal models are useful when interest lies in quantifying associations averaged across a population of clusters. When the functional form of a covariate-outcome association is unknown, flexible regression methods are needed to allow for potentially non-linear relationships. We propose a novel marginal additive model (MAM) for modelling cluster-correlated data with non-linear population-averaged associations. The proposed MAM is a unified framework for estimation and uncertainty quantification of a marginal mean model, combined with inference for between-cluster variability and cluster-specific prediction. We propose a fitting algorithm that enables efficient computation of standard errors and corrects for estimation of penalty terms. We demonstrate the proposed methods in simulations and in application to (i) a longitudinal study of beaver foraging behaviour, and (ii) a spatial analysis of Loaloa infection in West Africa. R code for implementing the proposed methodology is available at //github.com/awstringer1/mam.