With the rapid increase of valuable observational, experimental and simulated data for complex systems, much efforts have been devoted to identifying governing laws underlying the evolution of these systems. Despite the wide applications of non-Gaussian fluctuations in numerous physical phenomena, the data-driven approaches to extract stochastic dynamical systems with (non-Gaussian) L\'evy noise are relatively few so far. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to extract stochastic dynamical systems with $\alpha$-stable L\'evy noise from short burst data based on the properties of $\alpha$-stable distributions. More specifically, we first estimate the L\'evy jump measure and noise intensity via computing mean and variance of the amplitude of the increment of the sample paths. Then we approximate the drift coefficient by combining nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas with normalizing flows. Numerical experiments on one- and two-dimensional prototypical examples illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our method. This approach will become an effective scientific tool in discovering stochastic governing laws of complex phenomena and understanding dynamical behaviors under non-Gaussian fluctuations.
In this paper, we study smooth stochastic multi-level composition optimization problems, where the objective function is a nested composition of $T$ functions. We assume access to noisy evaluations of the functions and their gradients, through a stochastic first-order oracle. For solving this class of problems, we propose two algorithms using moving-average stochastic estimates, and analyze their convergence to an $\epsilon$-stationary point of the problem. We show that the first algorithm, which is a generalization of \cite{GhaRuswan20} to the $T$ level case, can achieve a sample complexity of $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^6)$ by using mini-batches of samples in each iteration. By modifying this algorithm using linearized stochastic estimates of the function values, we improve the sample complexity to $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon^4)$. {\color{black}This modification not only removes the requirement of having a mini-batch of samples in each iteration, but also makes the algorithm parameter-free and easy to implement}. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that such an online algorithm designed for the (un)constrained multi-level setting, obtains the same sample complexity of the smooth single-level setting, under standard assumptions (unbiasedness and boundedness of the second moments) on the stochastic first-order oracle.
In most optimization problems, users have a clear understanding of the function to optimize (e.g., minimize the makespan for scheduling problems). However, the constraints may be difficult to state and their modelling often requires expertise in Constraint Programming. Active constraint acquisition has been successfully used to support non-experienced users in learning constraint networks through the generation of a sequence of queries. In this paper, we propose Learn&Optimize, a method to solve optimization problems with known objective function and unknown constraint network. It uses an active constraint acquisition algorithm which learns the unknown constraints and computes boundaries for the optimal solution during the learning process. As a result, our method allows users to solve optimization problems without learning the overall constraint network.
We study stochastic convex optimization with heavy-tailed data under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Most prior work on this problem is restricted to the case where the loss function is Lipschitz. Instead, as introduced by Wang, Xiao, Devadas, and Xu \cite{WangXDX20}, we study general convex loss functions with the assumption that the distribution of gradients has bounded $k$-th moments. We provide improved upper bounds on the excess population risk under concentrated DP for convex and strongly convex loss functions. Along the way, we derive new algorithms for private mean estimation of heavy-tailed distributions, under both pure and concentrated DP. Finally, we prove nearly-matching lower bounds for private stochastic convex optimization with strongly convex losses and mean estimation, showing new separations between pure and concentrated DP.
It is a common phenomenon that for high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical models, rate-optimal estimators balance squared bias and variance. Although this balancing is widely observed, little is known whether methods exist that could avoid the trade-off between bias and variance. We propose a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of any estimator with bias smaller than a prespecified bound. This shows to which extent the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and allows to quantify the loss of performance for methods that do not obey it. The approach is based on a number of abstract lower bounds for the variance involving the change of expectation with respect to different probability measures as well as information measures such as the Kullback-Leibler or chi-square-divergence. Some of these inequalities rely on a new concept of information matrices. In a second part of the article, the abstract lower bounds are applied to several statistical models including the Gaussian white noise model, a boundary estimation problem, the Gaussian sequence model and the high-dimensional linear regression model. For these specific statistical applications, different types of bias-variance trade-offs occur that vary considerably in their strength. For the trade-off between integrated squared bias and integrated variance in the Gaussian white noise model, we combine the general strategy for lower bounds with a reduction technique. This allows us to link the original problem to the bias-variance trade-off for estimators with additional symmetry properties in a simpler statistical model. In the Gaussian sequence model, different phase transitions of the bias-variance trade-off occur. Although there is a non-trivial interplay between bias and variance, the rate of the squared bias and the variance do not have to be balanced in order to achieve the minimax estimation rate.
The era of information explosion had prompted the accumulation of a tremendous amount of time-series data, including stationary and non-stationary time-series data. State-of-the-art algorithms have achieved a decent performance in dealing with stationary temporal data. However, traditional algorithms that tackle stationary time-series do not apply to non-stationary series like Forex trading. This paper investigates applicable models that can improve the accuracy of forecasting future trends of non-stationary time-series sequences. In particular, we focus on identifying potential models and investigate the effects of recognizing patterns from historical data. We propose a combination of \rebuttal{the} seq2seq model based on RNN, along with an attention mechanism and an enriched set features extracted via dynamic time warping and zigzag peak valley indicators. Customized loss functions and evaluating metrics have been designed to focus more on the predicting sequence's peaks and valley points. Our results show that our model can predict 4-hour future trends with high accuracy in the Forex dataset, which is crucial in realistic scenarios to assist foreign exchange trading decision making. We further provide evaluations of the effects of various loss functions, evaluation metrics, model variants, and components on model performance.
Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a widely used tool for machine learning in distributed settings, where a machine learning model is trained over distributed data sources through an interactive process of local computation and message passing. Such an iterative process could cause privacy concerns of data owners. The goal of this paper is to provide differential privacy for ADMM-based distributed machine learning. Prior approaches on differentially private ADMM exhibit low utility under high privacy guarantee and often assume the objective functions of the learning problems to be smooth and strongly convex. To address these concerns, we propose a novel differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithm called DP-ADMM, which combines an approximate augmented Lagrangian function with time-varying Gaussian noise addition in the iterative process to achieve higher utility for general objective functions under the same differential privacy guarantee. We also apply the moments accountant method to bound the end-to-end privacy loss. The theoretical analysis shows that DP-ADMM can be applied to a wider class of distributed learning problems, is provably convergent, and offers an explicit utility-privacy tradeoff. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide explicit convergence and utility properties for differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithms. The evaluation results demonstrate that our approach can achieve good convergence and model accuracy under high end-to-end differential privacy guarantee.
This manuscript surveys reinforcement learning from the perspective of optimization and control with a focus on continuous control applications. It surveys the general formulation, terminology, and typical experimental implementations of reinforcement learning and reviews competing solution paradigms. In order to compare the relative merits of various techniques, this survey presents a case study of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) with unknown dynamics, perhaps the simplest and best studied problem in optimal control. The manuscript describes how merging techniques from learning theory and control can provide non-asymptotic characterizations of LQR performance and shows that these characterizations tend to match experimental behavior. In turn, when revisiting more complex applications, many of the observed phenomena in LQR persist. In particular, theory and experiment demonstrate the role and importance of models and the cost of generality in reinforcement learning algorithms. This survey concludes with a discussion of some of the challenges in designing learning systems that safely and reliably interact with complex and uncertain environments and how tools from reinforcement learning and controls might be combined to approach these challenges.
Owing to the recent advances in "Big Data" modeling and prediction tasks, variational Bayesian estimation has gained popularity due to their ability to provide exact solutions to approximate posteriors. One key technique for approximate inference is stochastic variational inference (SVI). SVI poses variational inference as a stochastic optimization problem and solves it iteratively using noisy gradient estimates. It aims to handle massive data for predictive and classification tasks by applying complex Bayesian models that have observed as well as latent variables. This paper aims to decentralize it allowing parallel computation, secure learning and robustness benefits. We use Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers in a top-down setting to develop a distributed SVI algorithm such that independent learners running inference algorithms only require sharing the estimated model parameters instead of their private datasets. Our work extends the distributed SVI-ADMM algorithm that we first propose, to an ADMM-based networked SVI algorithm in which not only are the learners working distributively but they share information according to rules of a graph by which they form a network. This kind of work lies under the umbrella of `deep learning over networks' and we verify our algorithm for a topic-modeling problem for corpus of Wikipedia articles. We illustrate the results on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model in large document classification, compare performance with the centralized algorithm, and use numerical experiments to corroborate the analytical results.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
Robust estimation is much more challenging in high dimensions than it is in one dimension: Most techniques either lead to intractable optimization problems or estimators that can tolerate only a tiny fraction of errors. Recent work in theoretical computer science has shown that, in appropriate distributional models, it is possible to robustly estimate the mean and covariance with polynomial time algorithms that can tolerate a constant fraction of corruptions, independent of the dimension. However, the sample and time complexity of these algorithms is prohibitively large for high-dimensional applications. In this work, we address both of these issues by establishing sample complexity bounds that are optimal, up to logarithmic factors, as well as giving various refinements that allow the algorithms to tolerate a much larger fraction of corruptions. Finally, we show on both synthetic and real data that our algorithms have state-of-the-art performance and suddenly make high-dimensional robust estimation a realistic possibility.