Compositional data are contemporarily defined as positive vectors, the ratios among whose elements are of interest to the researcher. Financial statement analysis by means of accounting ratios fulfils this definition to the letter. Compositional data analysis solves the major problems in statistical analysis of standard financial ratios at industry level, such as skewness, non-normality, non-linearity and dependence of the results on the choice of which accounting figure goes to the numerator and to the denominator of the ratio. In spite of this, compositional applications to financial statement analysis are still rare. In this article, we present some transformations within compositional data analysis that are particularly useful for financial statement analysis. We show how to compute industry or sub-industry means of standard financial ratios from a compositional perspective. We show how to visualise firms in an industry with a compositional biplot, to classify them with compositional cluster analysis and to relate financial and non-financial indicators with compositional regression models. We show an application to the accounting statements of Spanish wineries using DuPont analysis, and a step-by-step tutorial to the compositional freeware CoDaPack.
The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on information about dependencies between all possible events. Analytical representations of a PDF are difficult to specify in advance, in many real life applications. Knowing the shapes of PDFs, and using experimental data, different optimization schemes can be applied in order to evaluate probability density functions and, therefore, the properties of the studied system. Such methods, however, are computationally demanding, and often not feasible. We show that, in the case where experimentally accessed properties are directly related to the frequencies of events involved, it may be possible to replace the heavy Monte Carlo core of optimization schemes with an analytical solution. Such a replacement not only provides a more accurate estimation of the properties of the process, but also reduces the simulation time by a factor of order of the sample size (at least $\approx 10^4$). The proposed analytical approach is valid for any choice of PDF. The accuracy, computational efficiency, and advantages of the method over MC procedures are demonstrated in the exactly solvable case and in the evaluation of branching fractions in controlled radical polymerization (CRP) of acrylic monomers. This polymerization can be modeled by a constrained stochastic process. Constrained systems are quite common, and this makes the method useful for various applications.
In the realm of statistical exploration, the manipulation of pseudo-random values to discern their impact on data distribution presents a compelling avenue of inquiry. This article investigates the question: Is it possible to add pseudo-random values without compelling a shift towards a normal distribution?. Employing Python techniques, the study explores the nuances of pseudo-random value addition within the context of additions, aiming to unravel the interplay between randomness and resulting statistical characteristics. The Materials and Methods chapter details the construction of datasets comprising up to 300 billion pseudo-random values, employing three distinct layers of manipulation. The Results chapter visually and quantitatively explores the generated datasets, emphasizing distribution and standard deviation metrics. The study concludes with reflections on the implications of pseudo-random value manipulation and suggests avenues for future research. In the layered exploration, the first layer introduces subtle normalization with increasing summations, while the second layer enhances normality. The third layer disrupts typical distribution patterns, leaning towards randomness despite pseudo-random value summation. Standard deviation patterns across layers further illuminate the dynamic interplay of pseudo-random operations on statistical characteristics. While not aiming to disrupt academic norms, this work modestly contributes insights into data distribution complexities. Future studies are encouraged to delve deeper into the implications of data manipulation on statistical outcomes, extending the understanding of pseudo-random operations in diverse contexts.
The deformed energy method has shown to be a good option for dimensional synthesis of mechanisms. In this paper the introduction of some new features to such approach is proposed. First, constraints fixing dimensions of certain links are introduced in the error function of the synthesis problem. Second, requirements on distances between determinate nodes are included in the error function for the analysis of the deformed position problem. Both the overall synthesis error function and the inner analysis error function are optimized using a Sequential Quadratic Problem (SQP) approach. This also reduces the probability of branch or circuit defects. In the case of the inner function analytical derivatives are used, while in the synthesis optimization approximate derivatives have been introduced. Furthermore, constraints are analyzed under two formulations, the Euclidean distance and an alternative approach that uses the previous raised to the power of two. The latter approach is often used in kinematics, and simplifies the computation of derivatives. Some examples are provided to show the convergence order of the error function and the fulfilment of the constraints in both formulations studied under different topological situations or achieved energy levels.
The logistic regression model is one of the most popular data generation model in noisy binary classification problems. In this work, we study the sample complexity of estimating the parameters of the logistic regression model up to a given $\ell_2$ error, in terms of the dimension and the inverse temperature, with standard normal covariates. The inverse temperature controls the signal-to-noise ratio of the data generation process. While both generalization bounds and asymptotic performance of the maximum-likelihood estimator for logistic regression are well-studied, the non-asymptotic sample complexity that shows the dependence on error and the inverse temperature for parameter estimation is absent from previous analyses. We show that the sample complexity curve has two change-points in terms of the inverse temperature, clearly separating the low, moderate, and high temperature regimes.
We propose a new loss function for supervised and physics-informed training of neural networks and operators that incorporates a posteriori error estimate. More specifically, during the training stage, the neural network learns additional physical fields that lead to rigorous error majorants after a computationally cheap postprocessing stage. Theoretical results are based upon the theory of functional a posteriori error estimates, which allows for the systematic construction of such loss functions for a diverse class of practically relevant partial differential equations. From the numerical side, we demonstrate on a series of elliptic problems that for a variety of architectures and approaches (physics-informed neural networks, physics-informed neural operators, neural operators, and classical architectures in the regression and physics-informed settings), we can reach better or comparable accuracy and in addition to that cheaply recover high-quality upper bounds on the error after training.
We perform a quantitative assessment of different strategies to compute the contribution due to surface tension in incompressible two-phase flows using a conservative level set (CLS) method. More specifically, we compare classical approaches, such as the direct computation of the curvature from the level set or the Laplace-Beltrami operator, with an evolution equation for the mean curvature recently proposed in literature. We consider the test case of a static bubble, for which an exact solution for the pressure jump across the interface is available, and the test case of an oscillating bubble, showing pros and cons of the different approaches.
We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational model admits a low-dimensional representation. This assumption can be met by numerous uncertainty quantification applications with physics-based computational models. The proposed approach differs from a sequential application of dimensionality reduction followed by surrogate modeling, as we "extract" a surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in the input-output space. This feature becomes desirable when the input space is genuinely high-dimensional. The proposed method also diverges from the Probabilistic Learning on Manifold, as a reconstruction mapping from the feature space to the input-output space is circumvented. The final product of the proposed method is a stochastic simulator that propagates a deterministic input into a stochastic output, preserving the convenience of a sequential "dimensionality reduction + Gaussian process regression" approach while overcoming some of its limitations. The proposed method is demonstrated through two uncertainty quantification problems characterized by high-dimensional input uncertainties.
Functional principal component analysis based on Karhunen Loeve expansion allows to describe the stochastic evolution of the main characteristics associated to multiple systems and devices. Identifying the probability distribution of the principal component scores is fundamental to characterize the whole process. The aim of this work is to consider a family of statistical distributions that could be accurately adjusted to a previous transformation. Then, a new class of distributions, the linear-phase-type, is introduced to model the principal components. This class is studied in detail in order to prove, through the KL expansion, that certain linear transformations of the process at each time point are phase-type distributed. This way, the one-dimensional distributions of the process are in the same linear-phase-type class. Finally, an application to model the reset process associated with resistive memories is developed and explained.
Collecting large quantities of high-quality data is often prohibitively expensive or impractical, and a crucial bottleneck in machine learning. One may instead augment a small set of $n$ data points from the target distribution with data from more accessible sources like public datasets, data collected under different circumstances, or synthesized by generative models. Blurring distinctions, we refer to such data as `surrogate data'. We define a simple scheme for integrating surrogate data into training and use both theoretical models and empirical studies to explore its behavior. Our main findings are: $(i)$ Integrating surrogate data can significantly reduce the test error on the original distribution; $(ii)$ In order to reap this benefit, it is crucial to use optimally weighted empirical risk minimization; $(iii)$ The test error of models trained on mixtures of real and surrogate data is well described by a scaling law. This can be used to predict the optimal weighting and the gain from surrogate data.
Speech intelligibility can be degraded due to multiple factors, such as noisy environments, technical difficulties or biological conditions. This work is focused on the development of an automatic non-intrusive system for predicting the speech intelligibility level in this latter case. The main contribution of our research on this topic is the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with log-mel spectrograms as input features for this purpose. In addition, this LSTM-based system is further enhanced by the incorporation of a simple attention mechanism that is able to determine the more relevant frames to this task. The proposed models are evaluated with the UA-Speech database that contains dysarthric speech with different degrees of severity. Results show that the attention LSTM architecture outperforms both, a reference Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based system with hand-crafted features and a LSTM-based system with Mean-Pooling.