Linear structural causal models (SCMs)-- in which each observed variable is generated by a subset of the other observed variables as well as a subset of the exogenous sources-- are pervasive in causal inference and casual discovery. However, for the task of causal discovery, existing work almost exclusively focus on the submodel where each observed variable is associated with a distinct source with non-zero variance. This results in the restriction that no observed variable can deterministically depend on other observed variables or latent confounders. In this paper, we extend the results on structure learning by focusing on a subclass of linear SCMs which do not have this property, i.e., models in which observed variables can be causally affected by any subset of the sources, and are allowed to be a deterministic function of other observed variables or latent confounders. This allows for a more realistic modeling of influence or information propagation in systems. We focus on the task of causal discovery form observational data generated from a member of this subclass. We derive a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability of the causal structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that gives identifiability results for causal discovery under both latent confounding and deterministic relationships. Further, we propose an algorithm for recovering the underlying causal structure when the aforementioned conditions are satisfied. We validate our theoretical results both on synthetic and real datasets.
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Deep neural networks are usually trained with stochastic gradient descent (SGD), which minimizes objective function using very rough approximations of gradient, only averaging to the real gradient. Standard approaches like momentum or ADAM only consider a single direction, and do not try to model distance from extremum - neglecting valuable information from calculated sequence of gradients, often stagnating in some suboptimal plateau. Second order methods could exploit these missed opportunities, however, beside suffering from very large cost and numerical instabilities, many of them attract to suboptimal points like saddles due to negligence of signs of curvatures (as eigenvalues of Hessian). Saddle-free Newton method is a rare example of addressing this issue - changes saddle attraction into repulsion, and was shown to provide essential improvement for final value this way. However, it neglects noise while modelling second order behavior, focuses on Krylov subspace for numerical reasons, and requires costly eigendecomposion. Maintaining SFN advantages, there are proposed inexpensive ways for exploiting these opportunities. Second order behavior is linear dependence of first derivative - we can optimally estimate it from sequence of noisy gradients with least square linear regression, in online setting here: with weakening weights of old gradients. Statistically relevant subspace is suggested by PCA of recent noisy gradients - in online setting it can be made by slowly rotating considered directions toward new gradients, gradually replacing old directions with recent statistically relevant. Eigendecomposition can be also performed online: with regularly performed step of QR method to maintain diagonal Hessian. Outside the second order modeled subspace we can simultaneously perform gradient descent.
In this paper, we initiate study of the computational power of adaptive and non-adaptive monotone decision trees - decision trees where each query is a monotone function on the input bits. In the most general setting, the monotone decision tree height (or size) can be viewed as a measure of non-monotonicity of a given Boolean function. We also study the restriction of the model by restricting (in terms of circuit complexity) the monotone functions that can be queried at each node. This naturally leads to complexity classes of the form DT(mon-C) for any circuit complexity class C, where the height of the tree is O(log n), and the query functions can be computed by monotone circuits in the class C. In the above context, we prove the following characterizations and bounds. For any Boolean function f, we show that the minimum monotone decision tree height can be exactly characterized (both in the adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model) in terms of its alternation (alt(f) is defined as the maximum number of times that the function value changes, in any chain in the Boolean lattice). We also characterize the non-adaptive decision tree height with a natural generalization of certification complexity of a function. Similarly, we determine the complexity of non-deterministic and randomized variants of monotone decision trees in terms of alt(f). We show that DT(mon-C) = C when C contains monotone circuits for the threshold functions (for e.g., if C = TC0). For C = AC0, we are able to show that any function in AC0 can be computed by a sub-linear height monotone decision tree with queries having monotone AC0 circuits. To understand the logarithmic height case in case of AC0 i.e., DT(mon-AC0), we show that functions in DT(mon-AC0) have AC0 circuits with few negation gates.
Real-life tools for decision-making in many critical domains are based on ranking results. With the increasing awareness of algorithmic fairness, recent works have presented measures for fairness in ranking. Many of those definitions consider the representation of different ``protected groups'', in the top-$k$ ranked items, for any reasonable $k$. Given the protected groups, confirming algorithmic fairness is a simple task. However, the groups' definitions may be unknown in advance. In this paper, we study the problem of detecting groups with biased representation in the top-$k$ ranked items, eliminating the need to pre-define protected groups. The number of such groups possible can be exponential, making the problem hard. We propose efficient search algorithms for two different fairness measures: global representation bounds, and proportional representation. Then we propose a method to explain the bias in the representations of groups utilizing the notion of Shapley values. We conclude with an experimental study, showing the scalability of our approach and demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed algorithms.
In models of opinion dynamics, many parameters -- either in the form of constants or in the form of functions -- play a critical role in describing, calibrating, and forecasting how opinions change with time. When examining a model of opinion dynamics, it is beneficial to infer its parameters using empirical data. In this paper, we study an example of such an inference problem. We consider a mean-field bounded-confidence model with an unknown interaction kernel between individuals. This interaction kernel encodes how individuals with different opinions interact and affect each other's opinions. It is often difficult to quantitatively measure social opinions as empirical data from observations or experiments, so we assume that the available data takes the form of partial observations of the cumulative distribution function of opinions. We prove that certain measurements guarantee a precise and unique inference of the interaction kernel and propose a numerical method to reconstruct an interaction kernel from a limited number of data points. Our numerical results suggest that the error of the inferred interaction kernel decays exponentially as we strategically enlarge the data set.
Sequential testing, always-valid $p$-values, and confidence sequences promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, unlike fixed-$n$ inference based on asymptotic normality, existing sequential tests either make parametric assumptions and end up under-covering/over-rejecting when these fail or use non-parametric but conservative concentration inequalities and end up over-covering/under-rejecting. To circumvent these issues, we sidestep exact at-least-$\alpha$ coverage and focus on asymptotically exact coverage and asymptotic optimality. That is, we seek sequential tests whose probability of ever rejecting a true hypothesis asymptotically approaches $\alpha$ and whose expected time to reject a false hypothesis approaches a lower bound on all tests with asymptotic coverage at least $\alpha$, both under an appropriate asymptotic regime. We permit observations to be both non-parametric and dependent and focus on testing whether the observations form a martingale difference sequence. We propose the universal sequential probability ratio test (uSPRT), a slight modification to the normal-mixture sequential probability ratio test, where we add a burn-in period and adjust thresholds accordingly. We show that even in this very general setting, the uSPRT is asymptotically optimal under mild generic conditions. We apply the results to stabilized estimating equations to test means, treatment effects, etc. Our results also provide corresponding guarantees for the implied confidence sequences. Numerical simulations verify our guarantees and the benefits of the uSPRT over alternatives.
For multilayer structures, interfacial failure is one of the most important elements related to device reliability. For cohesive zone modelling, traction-separation relations represent the adhesive interactions across interfaces. However, existing theoretical models do not currently capture traction-separation relations that have been extracted using direct methods, particularly under mixed-mode conditions. Given the complexity of the problem, models derived from the neural network approach are attractive. Although they can be trained to fit data along the loading paths taken in a particular set of mixed-mode fracture experiments, they may fail to obey physical laws for paths not covered by the training data sets. In this paper, a thermodynamically consistent neural network (TCNN) approach is established to model the constitutive behavior of interfaces when faced with sparse training data sets. Accordingly, three conditions are examined and implemented here: (i) thermodynamic consistency, (ii) maximum energy dissipation path control and (iii) J-integral conservation. These conditions are treated as constraints and are implemented as such in the loss function. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated by comparing the modeling results with a range of physical constraints. Moreover, a Bayesian optimization algorithm is then adopted to optimize the weight factors associated with each of the constraints in order to overcome convergence issues that can arise when multiple constraints are present. The resultant numerical implementation of the ideas presented here produced well-behaved, mixed-mode traction separation surfaces that maintained the fidelity of the experimental data that was provided as input. The proposed approach heralds a new autonomous, point-to-point constitutive modeling concept for interface mechanics.
The recent thought-provoking paper by Hansen [2022, Econometrica] proved that the Gauss-Markov theorem continues to hold without the requirement that competing estimators are linear in the vector of outcomes. Despite the elegant proof, it was shown by the authors and other researchers that the main result in the earlier version of Hansen's paper does not extend the classic Gauss-Markov theorem because no nonlinear unbiased estimator exists under his conditions. To address the issue, Hansen [2022] added statements in the latest version with new conditions under which nonlinear unbiased estimators exist. Motivated by the lively discussion, we study a fundamental problem: what estimators are unbiased for a given class of linear models? We first review a line of highly relevant work dating back to the 1960s, which, unfortunately, have not drawn enough attention. Then, we introduce notation that allows us to restate and unify results from earlier work and Hansen [2022]. The new framework also allows us to highlight differences among previous conclusions. Lastly, we establish new representation theorems for unbiased estimators under different restrictions on the linear model, allowing the coefficients and covariance matrix to take only a finite number of values, the higher moments of the estimator and the dependent variable to exist, and the error distribution to be discrete, absolutely continuous, or dominated by another probability measure. Our results substantially generalize the claims of parallel commentaries on Hansen [2022] and a remarkable result by Koopmann [1982].
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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