In many applications, e.g. fault diagnostics and optimized control of supermarket refrigeration systems, it is important to determine the heat demand of the cabinets. This can easily be achieved by measuring the mass flow through each cabinet, however, that is expensive and not feasible in large-scale deployments. Therefore it is important to be able to estimate the valve sizes from the monitoring data, which is typically measured. The valve size is measured by an area, which can be used to calculate mass flow through the valve -- this estimated value is referred to as the valve constant. A novel method for estimating the cabinet evaporator valve constants is proposed in the present paper. It is demonstrated using monitoring data from a refrigeration system in a supermarket consisting of data sampled at a one-minute sampling rate, however it is shown that a sampling time of around 10-20 minutes is adequate for the method. Through thermodynamic analysis of a two-stage CO2 refrigeration system, a linear regression model for estimating valve constants was developed using time series data. The linear regression requires that transient dynamics are not present in the data, which depends on multiple factors e.g. the sampling time. If dynamics are not modeled it can be detected by a significant auto-correlation of the residuals. In order to include the dynamics in the model, an Auto-Regressive Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARMAX) was applied, and it is shown how it effectively eliminates the auto-correlation and provides more unbiased estimates, as well as improved the accuracy estimates. Furthermore, it is shown that the sample time has a huge impact on the valve estimates. Thus, a method for selecting the optimal sampling time is introduced. It works individually for each of the evaporators, by exploring their respective frequency spectrum.
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Implementation of many statistical methods for large, multivariate data sets requires one to solve a linear system that, depending on the method, is of the dimension of the number of observations or each individual data vector. This is often the limiting factor in scaling the method with data size and complexity. In this paper we illustrate the use of Krylov subspace methods to address this issue in a statistical solution to a source separation problem in cosmology where the data size is prohibitively large for direct solution of the required system. Two distinct approaches are described: one that uses the method of conjugate gradients directly to the Kronecker-structured problem and another that reformulates the system as a Sylvester matrix equation. We show that both approaches produce an accurate solution within an acceptable computation time and with practical memory requirements for the data size that is currently available.
The idea of approximating the Shapley value of an n-person game by Monte Carlo simulation was first suggested by Mann and Shapley (1960) and they also introduced four different heuristical methods to reduce the estimation error. Since 1960, several statistical methods have been developed to reduce the standard deviation of the estimate. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that uses a pair of negatively correlated samples to reduce the variance of the estimate. Although the observations generated are not independent, the sample is ergodic (obeys the strong law of large numbers), hence the name "ergodic sampling". Unlike Shapley and Mann, we do not use heuristics, the algorithm uses a small sample to learn the best ergodic transformation for a given game. We illustrate the algorithm on eight games with different characteristics to test the performance and understand how the proposed algorithm works. The experiments show that this method has at least as low variance as an independent sample, and in five test games, it significantly improves the quality of the estimation, up to 75 percent.
Many recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) optical flow models use finite-step recurrent update operations to emulate traditional algorithms by encouraging iterative refinements toward a stable flow estimation. However, these RNNs impose large computation and memory overheads, and are not directly trained to model such stable estimation. They can converge poorly and thereby suffer from performance degradation. To combat these drawbacks, we propose deep equilibrium (DEQ) flow estimators, an approach that directly solves for the flow as the infinite-level fixed point of an implicit layer (using any black-box solver), and differentiates through this fixed point analytically (thus requiring $O(1)$ training memory). This implicit-depth approach is not predicated on any specific model, and thus can be applied to a wide range of SOTA flow estimation model designs. The use of these DEQ flow estimators allows us to compute the flow faster using, e.g., fixed-point reuse and inexact gradients, consumes $4\sim6\times$ times less training memory than the recurrent counterpart, and achieves better results with the same computation budget. In addition, we propose a novel, sparse fixed-point correction scheme to stabilize our DEQ flow estimators, which addresses a longstanding challenge for DEQ models in general. We test our approach in various realistic settings and show that it improves SOTA methods on Sintel and KITTI datasets with substantially better computational and memory efficiency.
This paper presents an approach to trajectory-centric learning control based on contraction metrics and disturbance estimation for nonlinear systems subject to matched uncertainties. The proposed approach allows for the use of deep neural networks to learn uncertain dynamics while still providing guarantees of transient tracking performance throughout the learning phase. Within the proposed approach, a disturbance estimation law is adopted to estimate the pointwise value of the uncertainty, with pre-computable estimation error bounds (EEBs). The learned dynamics, the estimated disturbances, and the EEBs are then incorporated in a robust Riemannian energy condition to compute the control law that guarantees exponential convergence of actual trajectories to desired ones throughout the learning phase, even when the learned model is poor. On the other hand, with improved accuracy, the learned model can be incorporated into a high-level planner to plan better trajectories with improved performance, e.g., lower energy consumption and shorter travel time. The proposed framework is validated on a planar quadrotor navigation example.
Cyclic motions are fundamental patterns in robotic applications including industrial manipulation and legged robot locomotion. This paper proposes an approach for the online modulation of cyclic motions in robotic applications. For this purpose, we present an integrated programmable Central Pattern Generator (CPG) for the online generation of the reference joint trajectory of a robotic system out of a library of desired periodic motions. The reference trajectory is then followed by the lower-level controller of the robot. The proposed CPG generates a smooth reference joint trajectory convergence to the desired one while preserving the position and velocity joint limits of the robot. The integrated programmable CPG consists of one novel bounded output programmable oscillator. We design the programmable oscillator for encoding the desired multidimensional periodic trajectory as a stable limit cycle. We also use the state transformation method to ensure that the oscillator's output and its first-time derivative preserve the joint position and velocity limits of the robot. With the help of Lyapunov-based arguments, We prove that the proposed CPG provides the global stability and convergence of the desired trajectory. The effectiveness of the proposed integrated CPG for trajectory generation is shown in a passive rehabilitation scenario on the Kuka iiwa robot arm, and also in a walking simulation on a seven-link bipedal robot.
Policy gradient (PG) estimation becomes a challenge when we are not allowed to sample with the target policy but only have access to a dataset generated by some unknown behavior policy. Conventional methods for off-policy PG estimation often suffer from either significant bias or exponentially large variance. In this paper, we propose the double Fitted PG estimation (FPG) algorithm. FPG can work with an arbitrary policy parameterization, assuming access to a Bellman-complete value function class. In the case of linear value function approximation, we provide a tight finite-sample upper bound on policy gradient estimation error, that is governed by the amount of distribution mismatch measured in feature space. We also establish the asymptotic normality of FPG estimation error with a precise covariance characterization, which is further shown to be statistically optimal with a matching Cramer-Rao lower bound. Empirically, we evaluate the performance of FPG on both policy gradient estimation and policy optimization, using either softmax tabular or ReLU policy networks. Under various metrics, our results show that FPG significantly outperforms existing off-policy PG estimation methods based on importance sampling and variance reduction techniques.
We introduce the first algorithm for distributed decision-making that provably balances the trade-off of centralization, for global near-optimality, vs. decentralization, for near-minimal on-board computation, communication, and memory resources. We are motivated by the future of autonomy that involves heterogeneous robots collaborating in complex~tasks, such as image covering, target tracking, and area monitoring. Current algorithms, such as consensus algorithms, are insufficient to fulfill this future: they achieve distributed communication only, at the expense of high communication, computation, and memory overloads. A shift to resource-aware algorithms is needed, that can account for each robot's on-board resources, independently. We provide the first resource-aware algorithm, Resource-Aware distributed Greedy (RAG). We focus on maximization problems involving monotone and "doubly" submodular functions, a diminishing returns property. RAG has near-minimal on-board resource requirements. Each agent can afford to run the algorithm by adjusting the size of its neighborhood, even if that means selecting actions in complete isolation. RAG has provable approximation performance, where each agent can independently determine its contribution. All in all, RAG is the first algorithm to quantify the trade-off of centralization, for global near-optimality, vs. decentralization, for near-minimal on-board resource requirements. To capture the trade-off, we introduce the notion of Centralization Of Information among non-Neighbors (COIN). We validate RAG in simulated scenarios of image covering with mobile robots.
The minimum energy path (MEP) describes the mechanism of reaction, and the energy barrier along the path can be used to calculate the reaction rate in thermal systems. The nudged elastic band (NEB) method is one of the most commonly used schemes to compute MEPs numerically. It approximates an MEP by a discrete set of configuration images, where the discretization size determines both computational cost and accuracy of the simulations. In this paper, we consider a discrete MEP to be a stationary state of the NEB method and prove an optimal convergence rate of the discrete MEP with respect to the number of images. Numerical simulations for the transitions of some several proto-typical model systems are performed to support the theory.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is a successful tool in regression models. It is a feasible method to solve and analyze the nonlinear nature of the regression problems. This paper introduces the \textbf{itdr} R package that provides several functions based on integral transformation methods to estimate the SDR subspaces in a comprehensive and user-friendly manner. In particular, the \textbf{itdr} package includes the Fourier method (FM) and the convolution method (CM) of estimating the SDR subspaces such as the central mean subspace (CMS) and the central subspace (CS). In addition, the \textbf{itdr} package facilitates the recovery of the CMS and the CS by using the iterative Hessian transformation (IHT) method and the Fourier transformation approach for inverse dimension reduction method (invFM), respectively. Moreover, the use of the package is illustrated by three datasets. \textcolor{black}{Furthermore, this is the first package that implements integral transformation methods to estimate SDR subspaces. Hence, the \textbf{itdr} package may provide a huge contribution to research in the SDR field.
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