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In the density estimation model, we investigate the problem of constructing adaptive honest confidence sets with radius measured in Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq1$, and for densities with unknown regularity measured on a Besov scale. As sampling domains, we focus on the $d-$dimensional torus $\mathbb{T}^d$, in which case $1\leq p\leq 2$, and $\mathbb{R}^d$, for which $p=1$. We identify necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of adaptive confidence sets with diameters of the order of the regularity-dependent $W_p$-minimax estimation rate. Interestingly, it appears that the possibility of such adaptation of the diameter depends on the dimension of the underlying space. In low dimensions, $d\leq 4$, adaptation to any regularity is possible. In higher dimensions, adaptation is possible if and only if the underlying regularities belong to some interval of width at least $d/(d-4)$. This contrasts with the usual $L_p-$theory where, independently of the dimension, adaptation requires regularities to lie in a small fixed-width window. For configurations allowing these adaptive sets to exist, we explicitly construct confidence regions via the method of risk estimation, centred at adaptive estimators. Those are the first results in a statistical approach to adaptive uncertainty quantification with Wasserstein distances. Our analysis and methods extend more globally to weak losses such as Sobolev norm distances with negative smoothness indices.

The unscented transform uses a weighted set of samples called sigma points to propagate the means and covariances of nonlinear transformations of random variables. However, unscented transforms developed using either the Gaussian assumption or a minimum set of sigma points typically fall short when the random variable is not Gaussian distributed and the nonlinearities are substantial. In this paper, we develop the generalized unscented transform (GenUT), which uses 2n+1 sigma points to accurately capture up to the diagonal components of the skewness and kurtosis tensors of most probability distributions. Constraints can be analytically enforced on the sigma points while guaranteeing at least second-order accuracy. The GenUT uses the same number of sigma points as the original unscented transform while also being applicable to non-Gaussian distributions, including the assimilation of observations in the modeling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19.

We study the reknown deconvolution problem of recovering a distribution function from independent replicates (signal) additively contaminated with random errors (noise), whose distribution is known. We investigate whether a Bayesian nonparametric approach for modelling the latent distribution of the signal can yield inferences with asymptotic frequentist validity under the $L^1$-Wasserstein metric. When the error density is ordinary smooth, we develop two inversion inequalities relating either the $L^1$ or the $L^1$-Wasserstein distance between two mixture densities (of the observations) to the $L^1$-Wasserstein distance between the corresponding distributions of the signal. This smoothing inequality improves on those in the literature. We apply this general result to a Bayesian approach bayes on a Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions as a prior on the mixing distribution (or distribution of the signal), with a Laplace or Linnik noise. In particular we construct an \textit{adaptive} approximation of the density of the observations by the convolution of a Laplace (or Linnik) with a well chosen mixture of normal densities and show that the posterior concentrates at the minimax rate up to a logarithmic factor. The same prior law is shown to also adapt to the Sobolev regularity level of the mixing density, thus leading to a new Bayesian estimation method, relative to the Wasserstein distance, for distributions with smooth densities.

In this paper, we propose a practical online method for solving a class of distributionally robust optimization (DRO) with non-convex objectives, which has important applications in machine learning for improving the robustness of neural networks. In the literature, most methods for solving DRO are based on stochastic primal-dual methods. However, primal-dual methods for DRO suffer from several drawbacks: (1) manipulating a high-dimensional dual variable corresponding to the size of data is time expensive; (2) they are not friendly to online learning where data is coming sequentially. To address these issues, we consider a class of DRO with an KL divergence regularization on the dual variables, transform the min-max problem into a compositional minimization problem, and propose practical duality-free online stochastic methods without requiring a large mini-batch size. We establish the state-of-the-art complexities of the proposed methods with and without a Polyak-\L ojasiewicz (PL) condition of the objective. Empirical studies on large-scale deep learning tasks (i) demonstrate that our method can speed up the training by more than 2 times than baseline methods and save days of training time on a large-scale dataset with $\sim$ 265K images, and (ii) verify the supreme performance of DRO over Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) on imbalanced datasets. Of independent interest, the proposed method can be also used for solving a family of stochastic compositional problems with state-of-the-art complexities.

We consider sensitivity of a generic stochastic optimization problem to model uncertainty. We take a non-parametric approach and capture model uncertainty using Wasserstein balls around the postulated model. We provide explicit formulae for the first order correction to both the value function and the optimizer and further extend our results to optimization under linear constraints. We present applications to statistics, machine learning, mathematical finance and uncertainty quantification. In particular, we provide explicit first-order approximation for square-root LASSO regression coefficients and deduce coefficient shrinkage compared to the ordinary least squares regression. We consider robustness of call option pricing and deduce a new Black-Scholes sensitivity, a non-parametric version of the so-called Vega. We also compute sensitivities of optimized certainty equivalents in finance and propose measures to quantify robustness of neural networks to adversarial examples.

Trajectory optimization and model predictive control are essential techniques underpinning advanced robotic applications, ranging from autonomous driving to full-body humanoid control. State-of-the-art algorithms have focused on data-driven approaches that infer the system dynamics online and incorporate posterior uncertainty during planning and control. Despite their success, such approaches are still susceptible to catastrophic errors that may arise due to statistical learning biases, unmodeled disturbances, or even directed adversarial attacks. In this paper, we tackle the problem of dynamics mismatch and propose a distributionally robust optimal control formulation that alternates between two relative entropy trust-region optimization problems. Our method finds the worst-case maximum entropy Gaussian posterior over the dynamics parameters and the corresponding robust policy. Furthermore, we show that our approach admits a closed-form backward-pass for a certain class of systems. Finally, we demonstrate the resulting robustness on linear and nonlinear numerical examples.

Adversarial training is among the most effective techniques to improve the robustness of models against adversarial perturbations. However, the full effect of this approach on models is not well understood. For example, while adversarial training can reduce the adversarial risk (prediction error against an adversary), it sometimes increase standard risk (generalization error when there is no adversary). Even more, such behavior is impacted by various elements of the learning problem, including the size and quality of training data, specific forms of adversarial perturbations in the input, model overparameterization, and adversary's power, among others. In this paper, we focus on \emph{distribution perturbing} adversary framework wherein the adversary can change the test distribution within a neighborhood of the training data distribution. The neighborhood is defined via Wasserstein distance between distributions and the radius of the neighborhood is a measure of adversary's manipulative power. We study the tradeoff between standard risk and adversarial risk and derive the Pareto-optimal tradeoff, achievable over specific classes of models, in the infinite data limit with features dimension kept fixed. We consider three learning settings: 1) Regression with the class of linear models; 2) Binary classification under the Gaussian mixtures data model, with the class of linear classifiers; 3) Regression with the class of random features model (which can be equivalently represented as two-layer neural network with random first-layer weights). We show that a tradeoff between standard and adversarial risk is manifested in all three settings. We further characterize the Pareto-optimal tradeoff curves and discuss how a variety of factors, such as features correlation, adversary's power or the width of two-layer neural network would affect this tradeoff.

Methods that align distributions by minimizing an adversarial distance between them have recently achieved impressive results. However, these approaches are difficult to optimize with gradient descent and they often do not converge well without careful hyperparameter tuning and proper initialization. We investigate whether turning the adversarial min-max problem into an optimization problem by replacing the maximization part with its dual improves the quality of the resulting alignment and explore its connections to Maximum Mean Discrepancy. Our empirical results suggest that using the dual formulation for the restricted family of linear discriminators results in a more stable convergence to a desirable solution when compared with the performance of a primal min-max GAN-like objective and an MMD objective under the same restrictions. We test our hypothesis on the problem of aligning two synthetic point clouds on a plane and on a real-image domain adaptation problem on digits. In both cases, the dual formulation yields an iterative procedure that gives more stable and monotonic improvement over time.

We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.