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In many jurisdictions, forensic evidence is presented in the form of categorical statements by forensic experts. Several large-scale performance studies have been performed that report error rates to elucidate the uncertainty associated with such categorical statements. There is growing scientific consensus that the likelihood ratio (LR) framework is the logically correct form of presentation for forensic evidence evaluation. Yet, results from the large-scale performance studies have not been cast in this framework. Here, I show how to straightforwardly calculate an LR for any given categorical statement using data from the performance studies. This number quantifies how much more we should believe the hypothesis of same source vs different source, when provided a particular expert witness statement. LRs are reported for categorical statements resulting from the analysis of latent fingerprints, bloodstain patterns, handwriting, footwear and firearms. The highest LR found for statements of identification was 376 (fingerprints), the lowest found for statements of exclusion was 1/28 (handwriting). The LRs found may be more insightful for those used to this framework than the various error rates reported previously. An additional advantage of using the LR in this way is the relative simplicity; there are no decisions necessary on what error rate to focus on or how to handle inconclusive statements. The values found are closer to 1 than many would have expected. One possible explanation for this mismatch is that we undervalue numerical LRs. Finally, a note of caution: the LR values reported here come from a simple calculation that does not do justice to the nuances of the large-scale studies and their differences to casework, and should be treated as ball-park figures rather than definitive statements on the evidential value of whole forensic scientific fields.

We study the power of randomness in the Number-on-Forehead (NOF) model in communication complexity. We construct an explicit 3-player function $f:[N]^3 \to \{0,1\}$, such that: (i) there exist a randomized NOF protocol computing it that sends a constant number of bits; but (ii) any deterministic or nondeterministic NOF protocol computing it requires sending about $(\log N)^{1/3}$ many bits. This exponentially improves upon the previously best-known such separation. At the core of our proof is an extension of a recent result of the first and third authors on sets of integers without 3-term arithmetic progressions into a non-arithmetic setting.

The causal inference literature frequently focuses on estimating the mean of the potential outcome, whereas the quantiles of the potential outcome may carry important additional information. We propose a universal approach, based on the inverse estimating equations, to generalize a wide class of causal inference solutions from estimating the mean of the potential outcome to its quantiles. We assume that an identifying moment function is available to identify the mean of the threshold-transformed potential outcome, based on which a convenient construction of the estimating equation of quantiles of potential outcome is proposed. In addition, we also give a general construction of the efficient influence functions of the mean and quantiles of potential outcomes, and identify their connection. We motivate estimators for the quantile estimands with the efficient influence function, and develop their asymptotic properties when either parametric models or data-adaptive machine learners are used to estimate the nuisance functions. A broad implication of our results is that one can rework the existing result for mean causal estimands to facilitate causal inference on quantiles, rather than starting from scratch. Our results are illustrated by several examples.

It is well-known that mood and pain interact with each other, however individual-level variability in this relationship has been less well quantified than overall associations between low mood and pain. Here, we leverage the possibilities presented by mobile health data, in particular the "Cloudy with a Chance of Pain" study, which collected longitudinal data from the residents of the UK with chronic pain conditions. Participants used an App to record self-reported measures of factors including mood, pain and sleep quality. The richness of these data allows us to perform model-based clustering of the data as a mixture of Markov processes. Through this analysis we discover four endotypes with distinct patterns of co-evolution of mood and pain over time. The differences between endotypes are sufficiently large to play a role in clinical hypothesis generation for personalised treatments of comorbid pain and low mood.

By abstracting over well-known properties of De Bruijn's representation with nameless dummies, we design a new theory of syntax with variable binding and capture-avoiding substitution. We propose it as a simpler alternative to Fiore, Plotkin, and Turi's approach, with which we establish a strong formal link. We also show that our theory easily incorporates simple types and equations between terms.

Laguerre spectral approximations play an important role in the development of efficient algorithms for problems in unbounded domains. In this paper, we present a comprehensive convergence rate analysis of Laguerre spectral approximations for analytic functions. By exploiting contour integral techniques from complex analysis, we prove that Laguerre projection and interpolation methods of degree $n$ converge at the root-exponential rate $O(\exp(-2\rho\sqrt{n}))$ with $\rho>0$ when the underlying function is analytic inside and on a parabola with focus at the origin and vertex at $z=-\rho^2$. As far as we know, this is the first rigorous proof of root-exponential convergence of Laguerre approximations for analytic functions. Several important applications of our analysis are also discussed, including Laguerre spectral differentiations, Gauss-Laguerre quadrature rules, the scaling factor and the Weeks method for the inversion of Laplace transform, and some sharp convergence rate estimates are derived. Numerical experiments are presented to verify the theoretical results.

A surprising 'converse to the polynomial method' of Aaronson et al. (CCC'16) shows that any bounded quadratic polynomial can be computed exactly in expectation by a 1-query algorithm up to a universal multiplicative factor related to the famous Grothendieck constant. Here we show that such a result does not generalize to quartic polynomials and 2-query algorithms, even when we allow for additive approximations. We also show that the additive approximation implied by their result is tight for bounded bilinear forms, which gives a new characterization of the Grothendieck constant in terms of 1-query quantum algorithms. Along the way we provide reformulations of the completely bounded norm of a form, and its dual norm.

In this paper we consider a nonlinear poroelasticity model that describes the quasi-static mechanical behaviour of a fluid-saturated porous medium whose permeability depends on the divergence of the displacement. Such nonlinear models are typically used to study biological structures like tissues, organs, cartilage and bones, which are known for a nonlinear dependence of their permeability/hydraulic conductivity on solid dilation. We formulate (extend to the present situation) one of the most popular splitting schemes, namely the fixed-stress split method for the iterative solution of the coupled problem. The method is proven to converge linearly for sufficiently small time steps under standard assumptions. The error contraction factor then is strictly less than one, independent of the Lam\'{e} parameters, Biot and storage coefficients if the hydraulic conductivity is a strictly positive, bounded and Lipschitz-continuous function.

We present and analyze an algorithm designed for addressing vector-valued regression problems involving possibly infinite-dimensional input and output spaces. The algorithm is a randomized adaptation of reduced rank regression, a technique to optimally learn a low-rank vector-valued function (i.e. an operator) between sampled data via regularized empirical risk minimization with rank constraints. We propose Gaussian sketching techniques both for the primal and dual optimization objectives, yielding Randomized Reduced Rank Regression (R4) estimators that are efficient and accurate. For each of our R4 algorithms we prove that the resulting regularized empirical risk is, in expectation w.r.t. randomness of a sketch, arbitrarily close to the optimal value when hyper-parameteres are properly tuned. Numerical expreriments illustrate the tightness of our bounds and show advantages in two distinct scenarios: (i) solving a vector-valued regression problem using synthetic and large-scale neuroscience datasets, and (ii) regressing the Koopman operator of a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system.

The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.