Balancing social utility and equity in distributing limited vaccines represents a critical policy concern for protecting against the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. What is the nature of the trade-off between maximizing collective welfare and minimizing disparities between more and less privileged communities? To evaluate vaccination strategies, we propose a novel epidemic model that explicitly accounts for both demographic and mobility differences among communities and their association with heterogeneous COVID-19 risks, then calibrate it with large-scale data. Using this model, we find that social utility and equity can be simultaneously improved when vaccine access is prioritized for the most disadvantaged communities, which holds even when such communities manifest considerable vaccine reluctance. Nevertheless, equity among distinct demographic features are in tension due to their complex correlation in society. We design two behavior-and-demography-aware indices, community risk and societal harm, which capture the risks communities face and those they impose on society from not being vaccinated, to inform the design of comprehensive vaccine distribution strategies. Our study provides a framework for uniting utility and equity-based considerations in vaccine distribution, and sheds light on how to balance multiple ethical values in complex settings for epidemic control.
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The fragility index is a clinically motivated metric designed to supplement the $p$ value during hypothesis testing. The measure relies on two pillars: selecting cases to have their outcome modified and modifying the outcomes. The measure is interesting but the case selection suffers from a drawback which can hamper its interpretation. This work presents the drawback and a method, the stochastic generalized fragility indices, designed to remedy it. Two examples concerning electoral outcomes and the causal effect of smoking cessation illustrate the method.
The analysis of causation is a challenging task that can be approached in various ways. With the increasing use of machine learning based models in computational socioeconomics, explaining these models while taking causal connections into account is a necessity. In this work, we advocate the use of an explanatory framework from cooperative game theory augmented with $do$ calculus, namely causal Shapley values. Using causal Shapley values, we analyze socioeconomic disparities that have a causal link to the spread of COVID-19 in the USA. We study several phases of the disease spread to show how the causal connections change over time. We perform a causal analysis using random effects models and discuss the correspondence between the two methods to verify our results. We show the distinct advantages a non-linear machine learning models have over linear models when performing a multivariate analysis, especially since the machine learning models can map out non-linear correlations in the data. In addition, the causal Shapley values allow for including the causal structure in the variable importance computed for the machine learning model.
The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the first global infodemic have changed our lives in many different ways. We relied on social media to get the latest information about the COVID-19 pandemic and at the same time to disseminate information. The content in social media consisted not only health related advises, plans, and informative news from policy makers, but also contains conspiracies and rumors. It became important to identify such information as soon as they are posted to make actionable decisions (e.g., debunking rumors, or taking certain measures for traveling). To address this challenge, we develop and publicly release the first largest manually annotated Arabic tweet dataset, ArCovidVac, for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, covering many countries in the Arab region. The dataset is enriched with different layers of annotation, including, (i) Informativeness (more vs. less importance of the tweets); (ii) fine-grained tweet content types (e.g., advice, rumors, restriction, authenticate news/information); and (iii) stance towards vaccination (pro-vaccination, neutral, anti-vaccination). Further, we performed in-depth analysis of the data, exploring the popularity of different vaccines, trending hashtags, topics and presence of offensiveness in the tweets. We studied the data for individual types of tweets and temporal changes in stance towards vaccine. We benchmarked the ArCovidVac dataset using transformer architectures for informativeness, content types, and stance detection.
Understanding the joint impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 development is important for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. Recently, we created a method in forecasting the daily number of confirmed cases of infectious diseases by combining a mechanistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) model for infectious classes and a generalized boosting machine learning model (GBM) for predicting how public health policies and mobility data affect the transmission rate in the ODE model [WWR+]. In this paper, we extend the method to the post-vaccination period, accordingly obtain a retrospective forecast of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases in the US, and identify the relative influence of the policies used as the predictor variables. In particular, our ODE model contains both partially and fully vaccinated compartments and accounts for the breakthrough cases, that is, vaccinated individuals can still get infected. Our results indicate that the inclusion of data on non-pharmaceutical interventions can significantly improve the accuracy of the predictions. With the use of policy data, the model predicts the number of daily infected cases up to 35 days in the future, with an average mean absolute percentage error of 34%, which is further improved to 21% if combined with human mobility data. Moreover, similar to the pre-vaccination study, the most influential predictor variable remains the policy of restrictions on gatherings. The modeling approach used in this work can help policymakers design control measures as variant strains threaten public health in the future.
We propose a method for reporting how program evaluations reduce gaps between groups, such as the gender or Black-white gap. We first show that the reduction in disparities between groups can be written as the difference in conditional average treatment effects (CATE) for each group. Then, using a Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder-style decomposition, we highlight how these CATE can be decomposed into unexplained differences in CATE in other observables versus differences in composition across other observables (e.g. the "endowment"). Finally, we apply this approach to study the impact of Medicare on American's access to health insurance.
Recent evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus causing a global pandemic in 2020, is predominantly transmitted via airborne aerosols in indoor environments. This calls for novel strategies when assessing and controlling a building's indoor air quality (IAQ). IAQ can generally be controlled by ventilation and/or policies to regulate human-building-interaction. However, in a building, occupants use rooms in different ways, and it may not be obvious which measure or combination of measures leads to a cost- and energy-effective solution ensuring good IAQ across the entire building. Therefore, in this article, we introduce a novel agent-based simulator, ArchABM, designed to assist in creating new or adapt existing buildings by estimating adequate room sizes, ventilation parameters and testing the effect of policies while taking into account IAQ as a result of complex human-building interaction patterns. A recently published aerosol model was adapted to calculate time-dependent carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and virus quanta concentrations in each room and inhaled $CO_2$ and virus quanta for each occupant over a day as a measure of physiological response. ArchABM is flexible regarding the aerosol model and the building layout due to its modular architecture, which allows implementing further models, any number and size of rooms, agents, and actions reflecting human-building interaction patterns. We present a use case based on a real floor plan and working schedules adopted in our research center. This study demonstrates how advanced simulation tools can contribute to improving IAQ across a building, thereby ensuring a healthy indoor environment.
The deluge of new papers has significantly blocked the development of academics, which is mainly caused by author-level and publication-level evaluation metrics that only focus on quantity. Those metrics have resulted in several severe problems that trouble scholars focusing on the important research direction for a long time and even promote an impetuous academic atmosphere. To solve those problems, we propose Phocus, a novel academic evaluation mechanism for authors and papers. Phocus analyzes the sentence containing a citation and its contexts to predict the sentiment towards the corresponding reference. Combining others factors, Phocus classifies citations coarsely, ranks all references within a paper, and utilizes the results of the classifier and the ranking model to get the local influential factor of a reference to the citing paper. The global influential factor of the reference to the citing paper is the product of the local influential factor and the total influential factor of the citing paper. Consequently, an author's academic influential factor is the sum of his contributions to each paper he co-authors.
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has crushed daily routines and is still rampaging through the world. Existing solution for nonpharmaceutical interventions usually needs to timely and precisely select a subset of residential urban areas for containment or even quarantine, where the spatial distribution of confirmed cases has been considered as a key criterion for the subset selection. While such containment measure has successfully stopped or slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in some countries, it is criticized for being inefficient or ineffective, as the statistics of confirmed cases are usually time-delayed and coarse-grained. To tackle the issues, we propose C-Watcher, a novel data-driven framework that aims at screening every neighborhood in a target city and predicting infection risks, prior to the spread of COVID-19 from epicenters to the city. In terms of design, C-Watcher collects large-scale long-term human mobility data from Baidu Maps, then characterizes every residential neighborhood in the city using a set of features based on urban mobility patterns. Furthermore, to transfer the firsthand knowledge (witted in epicenters) to the target city before local outbreaks, we adopt a novel adversarial encoder framework to learn "city-invariant" representations from the mobility-related features for precise early detection of high-risk neighborhoods, even before any confirmed cases known, in the target city. We carried out extensive experiments on C-Watcher using the real-data records in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreaks, where the results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of C-Watcher for early detection of high-risk neighborhoods from a large number of cities.
There is a growing body of work that proposes methods for mitigating bias in machine learning systems. These methods typically rely on access to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. However, this raises two significant challenges: (1) protected attributes may not be available or it may not be legal to use them, and (2) it is often desirable to simultaneously consider multiple protected attributes, as well as their intersections. In the context of mitigating bias in occupation classification, we propose a method for discouraging correlation between the predicted probability of an individual's true occupation and a word embedding of their name. This method leverages the societal biases that are encoded in word embeddings, eliminating the need for access to protected attributes. Crucially, it only requires access to individuals' names at training time and not at deployment time. We evaluate two variations of our proposed method using a large-scale dataset of online biographies. We find that both variations simultaneously reduce race and gender biases, with almost no reduction in the classifier's overall true positive rate.
Rankings of people and items are at the heart of selection-making, match-making, and recommender systems, ranging from employment sites to sharing economy platforms. As ranking positions influence the amount of attention the ranked subjects receive, biases in rankings can lead to unfair distribution of opportunities and resources, such as jobs or income. This paper proposes new measures and mechanisms to quantify and mitigate unfairness from a bias inherent to all rankings, namely, the position bias, which leads to disproportionately less attention being paid to low-ranked subjects. Our approach differs from recent fair ranking approaches in two important ways. First, existing works measure unfairness at the level of subject groups while our measures capture unfairness at the level of individual subjects, and as such subsume group unfairness. Second, as no single ranking can achieve individual attention fairness, we propose a novel mechanism that achieves amortized fairness, where attention accumulated across a series of rankings is proportional to accumulated relevance. We formulate the challenge of achieving amortized individual fairness subject to constraints on ranking quality as an online optimization problem and show that it can be solved as an integer linear program. Our experimental evaluation reveals that unfair attention distribution in rankings can be substantial, and demonstrates that our method can improve individual fairness while retaining high ranking quality.
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