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Standard methods for the meta-analysis of medical tests without a gold standard are limited to dichotomous data. Multivariate probit models are used to analyze correlated binary data, and can be extended to multivariate ordered probit models to model ordinal data. Within the context of an imperfect gold standard, they have previously been used for the analysis of dichotomous and ordinal tests in a single study, and for the meta-analysis of dichotomous tests. In this paper, we developed a hierarchical, latent class multivariate probit model for the simultaneous meta-analysis of ordinal and dichotomous tests without assuming a gold standard. The model can accommodate a hierarchical partial pooling model on the conditional within-study correlations, enabling one to obtain summary estimates of joint test accuracy. Dichotomous tests use probit regression likelihoods and ordinal tests use ordered probit regression likelihoods. We fitted the models using Stan, which uses a state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. We applied the models to a dataset in which studies evaluated the accuracy of tests, and test combinations, for deep vein thrombosis. We first demonstrated the issues with dichotomising test accuracy data a priori without a gold standard by fitting models which dichotomised the ordinal test data, and then we applied models which do not dichotomise the data. Furthermore, we fitted and compared a variety of other models, including those which assumed conditional independence and dependence between tests, and those assuming perfect and an imperfect gold standard.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · Learning · Networking · INFORMS · MoDELS ·
2022 年 6 月 6 日

Much information available to applied researchers is contained within written language or spoken text. Deep language models such as BERT have achieved unprecedented success in many applications of computational linguistics. However, much less is known about how these models can be used to analyze existing text. We propose a novel method that combines transformer models with network analysis to form a self-referential representation of language use within a corpus of interest. Our approach produces linguistic relations strongly consistent with the underlying model as well as mathematically well-defined operations on them, while reducing the amount of discretionary choices of representation and distance measures. It represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first unsupervised method to extract semantic networks directly from deep language models. We illustrate our approach in a semantic analysis of the term "founder". Using the entire corpus of Harvard Business Review from 1980 to 2020, we find that ties in our network track the semantics of discourse over time, and across contexts, identifying and relating clusters of semantic and syntactic relations. Finally, we discuss how this method can also complement and inform analyses of the behavior of deep learning models.

This paper provides a variational analysis of the unconstrained formulation of the LASSO problem, ubiquitous in statistical learning, signal processing, and inverse problems. In particular, we establish smoothness results for the optimal value as well as Lipschitz properties of the optimal solution as functions of the right-hand side (or measurement vector) and the regularization parameter. Moreover, we show how to apply the proposed variational analysis to study the sensitivity of the optimal solution to the tuning parameter in the context of compressed sensing with subgaussian measurements. Our theoretical findings are validated by numerical experiments.

The synthetic control method has become a widely popular tool to estimate causal effects with observational data. Despite this, inference for synthetic control methods remains challenging. Often, inferential results rely on linear factor model data generating processes. In this paper, we characterize the conditions on the factor model primitives (the factor loadings) for which the statistical risk minimizers are synthetic controls (in the simplex). Then, we propose a Bayesian alternative to the synthetic control method that preserves the main features of the standard method and provides a new way of doing valid inference. We explore a Bernstein-von Mises style result to link our Bayesian inference to the frequentist inference. For linear factor model frameworks we show that a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the synthetic control weights can consistently estimate the predictive function of the potential outcomes for the treated unit and that our Bayes estimator is asymptotically close to the MLE in the total variation sense. Through simulations, we show that there is convergence between the Bayes and frequentist approach even in sparse settings. Finally, we apply the method to re-visit the study of the economic costs of the German re-unification. The Bayesian synthetic control method is available in the bsynth R-package.

In many life science experiments or medical studies, subjects are repeatedly observed and measurements are collected in factorial designs with multivariate data. The analysis of such multivariate data is typically based on multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) or mixed models, requiring complete data, and certain assumption on the underlying parametric distribution such as continuity or a specific covariance structure, e.g., compound symmetry. However, these methods are usually not applicable when discrete data or even ordered categorical data are present. In such cases, nonparametric rank-based methods that do not require stringent distributional assumptions are the preferred choice. However, in the multivariate case, most rank-based approaches have only been developed for complete observations. It is the aim of this work is to develop asymptotic correct procedures that are capable of handling missing values, allowing for singular covariance matrices and are applicable for ordinal or ordered categorical data. This is achieved by applying a wild bootstrap procedure in combination with quadratic form-type test statistics. Beyond proving their asymptotic correctness, extensive simulation studies validate their applicability for small samples. Finally, two real data examples are analyzed.

Several deep neural networks have recently been shown to generate activations similar to those of the brain in response to the same input. These algorithms, however, remain largely implausible: they require (1) extraordinarily large amounts of data, (2) unobtainable supervised labels, (3) textual rather than raw sensory input, and / or (4) implausibly large memory (e.g. thousands of contextual words). These elements highlight the need to identify algorithms that, under these limitations, would suffice to account for both behavioral and brain responses. Focusing on the issue of speech processing, we here hypothesize that self-supervised algorithms trained on the raw waveform constitute a promising candidate. Specifically, we compare a recent self-supervised architecture, Wav2Vec 2.0, to the brain activity of 412 English, French, and Mandarin individuals recorded with functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), while they listened to ~1h of audio books. Our results are four-fold. First, we show that this algorithm learns brain-like representations with as little as 600 hours of unlabelled speech -- a quantity comparable to what infants can be exposed to during language acquisition. Second, its functional hierarchy aligns with the cortical hierarchy of speech processing. Third, different training regimes reveal a functional specialization akin to the cortex: Wav2Vec 2.0 learns sound-generic, speech-specific and language-specific representations similar to those of the prefrontal and temporal cortices. Fourth, we confirm the similarity of this specialization with the behavior of 386 additional participants. These elements, resulting from the largest neuroimaging benchmark to date, show how self-supervised learning can account for a rich organization of speech processing in the brain, and thus delineate a path to identify the laws of language acquisition which shape the human brain.

This paper studies an intriguing phenomenon related to the good generalization performance of estimators obtained by using large learning rates within gradient descent algorithms. First observed in the deep learning literature, we show that a phenomenon can be precisely characterized in the context of kernel methods, even though the resulting optimization problem is convex. Specifically, we consider the minimization of a quadratic objective in a separable Hilbert space, and show that with early stopping, the choice of learning rate influences the spectral decomposition of the obtained solution on the Hessian's eigenvectors. This extends an intuition described by Nakkiran (2020) on a two-dimensional toy problem to realistic learning scenarios such as kernel ridge regression. While large learning rates may be proven beneficial as soon as there is a mismatch between the train and test objectives, we further explain why it already occurs in classification tasks without assuming any particular mismatch between train and test data distributions.

We propose a theoretical framework that generalizes simple and fast algorithms for hierarchical agglomerative clustering to weighted graphs with both attractive and repulsive interactions between the nodes. This framework defines GASP, a Generalized Algorithm for Signed graph Partitioning, and allows us to explore many combinations of different linkage criteria and cannot-link constraints. We prove the equivalence of existing clustering methods to some of those combinations and introduce new algorithms for combinations that have not been studied before. We study both theoretical and empirical properties of these combinations and prove that some of these define an ultrametric on the graph. We conduct a systematic comparison of various instantiations of GASP on a large variety of both synthetic and existing signed clustering problems, in terms of accuracy but also efficiency and robustness to noise. Lastly, we show that some of the algorithms included in our framework, when combined with the predictions from a CNN model, result in a simple bottom-up instance segmentation pipeline. Going all the way from pixels to final segments with a simple procedure, we achieve state-of-the-art accuracy on the CREMI 2016 EM segmentation benchmark without requiring domain-specific superpixels.

Despite the plethora of post hoc model explanation methods, the basic properties and behavior of these methods and the conditions under which each one is effective are not well understood. In this work, we bridge these gaps and address a fundamental question: Which explanation method should one use in a given situation? To this end, we adopt a function approximation perspective and formalize the local function approximation (LFA) framework. We show that popular explanation methods are instances of this framework, performing function approximations of the underlying model in different neighborhoods using different loss functions. We introduce a no free lunch theorem for explanation methods which demonstrates that no single method can perform optimally across all neighbourhoods and calls for choosing among methods. To choose among methods, we set forth a guiding principle based on the function approximation perspective, considering a method to be effective if it recovers the underlying model when the model is a member of the explanation function class. Then, we analyze the conditions under which popular explanation methods are effective and provide recommendations for choosing among explanation methods and creating new ones. Lastly, we empirically validate our theoretical results using various real world datasets, model classes, and prediction tasks. By providing a principled mathematical framework which unifies diverse explanation methods, our work characterizes the behaviour of these methods and their relation to one another, guides the choice of explanation methods, and paves the way for the creation of new ones.

Nowadays, the shipbuilding industry is facing a radical change towards solutions with a smaller environmental impact. This can be achieved with low emissions engines, optimized shape designs with lower wave resistance and noise generation, and by reducing the metal raw materials used during the manufacturing. This work focuses on the last aspect by presenting a complete structural optimization pipeline for modern passenger ship hulls which exploits advanced model order reduction techniques to reduce the dimensionality of both input parameters and outputs of interest. We introduce a novel approach which incorporates parameter space reduction through active subspaces into the proper orthogonal decomposition with interpolation method. This is done in a multi-fidelity setting. We test the whole framework on a simplified model of a midship section and on the full model of a passenger ship, controlled by 20 and 16 parameters, respectively. We present a comprehensive error analysis and show the capabilities and usefulness of the methods especially during the preliminary design phase, finding new unconsidered designs while handling high dimensional parameterizations.

Multi-label text classification refers to the problem of assigning each given document its most relevant labels from the label set. Commonly, the metadata of the given documents and the hierarchy of the labels are available in real-world applications. However, most existing studies focus on only modeling the text information, with a few attempts to utilize either metadata or hierarchy signals, but not both of them. In this paper, we bridge the gap by formalizing the problem of metadata-aware text classification in a large label hierarchy (e.g., with tens of thousands of labels). To address this problem, we present the MATCH solution -- an end-to-end framework that leverages both metadata and hierarchy information. To incorporate metadata, we pre-train the embeddings of text and metadata in the same space and also leverage the fully-connected attentions to capture the interrelations between them. To leverage the label hierarchy, we propose different ways to regularize the parameters and output probability of each child label by its parents. Extensive experiments on two massive text datasets with large-scale label hierarchies demonstrate the effectiveness of MATCH over state-of-the-art deep learning baselines.

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