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When an exposure of interest is confounded by unmeasured factors, an instrumental variable (IV) can be used to identify and estimate certain causal contrasts. Identification of the marginal average treatment effect (ATE) from IVs relies on strong untestable structural assumptions. When one is unwilling to assert such structure, IVs can nonetheless be used to construct bounds on the ATE. Famously, Balke and Pearl (1997) proved tight bounds on the ATE for a binary outcome, in a randomized trial with noncompliance and no covariate information. We demonstrate how these bounds remain useful in observational settings with baseline confounders of the IV, as well as randomized trials with measured baseline covariates. The resulting bounds on the ATE are non-smooth functionals, and thus standard nonparametric efficiency theory is not immediately applicable. To remedy this, we propose (1) under a novel margin condition, influence function-based estimators of the bounds that can attain parametric convergence rates when the nuisance functions are modeled flexibly, and (2) estimators of smooth approximations of these bounds. We propose extensions to continuous outcomes, explore finite sample properties in simulations, and illustrate the proposed estimators in a randomized experiment studying the effects of vaccination encouragement on flu-related hospital visits.

For solving combinatorial optimisation problems with metaheuristics, different search operators are applied for sampling new solutions in the neighbourhood of a given solution. It is important to understand the relationship between operators for various purposes, e.g., adaptively deciding when to use which operator to find optimal solutions efficiently. However, it is difficult to theoretically analyse this relationship, especially in the complex solution space of combinatorial optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose to empirically analyse the relationship between operators in terms of the correlation between their local optima and develop a measure for quantifying their relationship. The comprehensive analyses on a wide range of capacitated vehicle routing problem benchmark instances show that there is a consistent pattern in the correlation between commonly used operators. Based on this newly proposed local optima correlation metric, we propose a novel approach for adaptively selecting among the operators during the search process. The core intention is to improve search efficiency by preventing wasting computational resources on exploring neighbourhoods where the local optima have already been reached. Experiments on randomly generated instances and commonly used benchmark datasets are conducted. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms commonly used adaptive operator selection methods.

Clustering is at the very core of machine learning, and its applications proliferate with the increasing availability of data. However, as datasets grow, comparing clusterings with an adjustment for chance becomes computationally difficult, preventing unbiased ground-truth comparisons and solution selection. We propose FastAMI, a Monte Carlo-based method to efficiently approximate the Adjusted Mutual Information (AMI) and extend it to the Standardized Mutual Information (SMI). The approach is compared with the exact calculation and a recently developed variant of the AMI based on pairwise permutations, using both synthetic and real data. In contrast to the exact calculation our method is fast enough to enable these adjusted information-theoretic comparisons for large datasets while maintaining considerably more accurate results than the pairwise approach.

Empirical likelihood enables a nonparametric, likelihood-driven style of inference without restrictive assumptions routinely made in parametric models. We develop a framework for applying empirical likelihood to the analysis of experimental designs, addressing issues that arise from blocking and multiple hypothesis testing. In addition to popular designs such as balanced incomplete block designs, our approach allows for highly unbalanced, incomplete block designs. We derive an asymptotic multivariate chi-square distribution for a set of empirical likelihood test statistics and propose two single-step multiple testing procedures: asymptotic Monte Carlo and nonparametric bootstrap. Both procedures asymptotically control the generalised family-wise error rate and efficiently construct simultaneous confidence intervals for comparisons of interest without explicitly considering the underlying covariance structure. A simulation study demonstrates that the performance of the procedures is robust to violations of standard assumptions of linear mixed models. We also present an application to experiments on a pesticide.

Although there is substantial literature on identifying structural changes for continuous spatio-temporal processes, the same is not true for categorical spatio-temporal data. This work bridges that gap and proposes a novel spatio-temporal model to identify changepoints in ordered categorical data. The model leverages an additive mean structure with separable Gaussian space-time processes for the latent variable. Our proposed methodology can detect significant changes in the mean structure as well as in the spatio-temporal covariance structures. We implement the model through a Bayesian framework that gives a computational edge over conventional approaches. From an application perspective, our approach's capability to handle ordinal categorical data provides an added advantage in real applications. This is illustrated using county-wise COVID-19 data (converted to categories according to CDC guidelines) from the state of New York in the USA. Our model identifies three changepoints in the transmission levels of COVID-19, which are indeed aligned with the ``waves'' due to specific variants encountered during the pandemic. The findings also provide interesting insights into the effects of vaccination and the extent of spatial and temporal dependence in different phases of the pandemic.

Regression can be really difficult in case of big datasets, since we have to dealt with huge volumes of data. The demand of computational resources for the modeling process increases as the scale of the datasets does, since traditional approaches for regression involve inverting huge data matrices. The main problem relies on the large data size, and so a standard approach is subsampling that aims at obtaining the most informative portion of the big data. In the current paper we consider an approach based on leverages scores, already existing in the current literature. The aforementioned approach proposed in order to select subdata for linear model discrimination. However, we highlight its importance on the selection of data points that are the most informative for estimating unknown parameters. We conclude that the approach based on leverage scores improves existing approaches, providing simulation experiments as well as a real data application.

Training machine learning models requires large datasets. However, collecting, curating, and operating large and complex sets of real world data poses problems of costs, ethical and legal issues, and data availability. Here we propose a novel algorithm to generate large artificial datasets to train machine learning models in conditions of extreme scarcity of real world data. The algorithm is based on a genetic algorithm, which mutates randomly generated datasets subsequently used for training a neural network. After training, the performance of the neural network on a batch of real world data is considered a surrogate for the fitness of the generated dataset used for its training. As selection pressure is applied to the population of generated datasets, unfit individuals are discarded, and the fitness of the fittest individuals increases through generations. The performance of the data generation algorithm was measured on the Iris dataset and on the Breast Cancer Wisconsin diagnostic dataset. In conditions of real world data abundance, mean accuracy of machine learning models trained on generated data was comparable to mean accuracy of models trained on real world data (0.956 in both cases on the Iris dataset, p = 0.6996, and 0.9377 versus 0.9472 on the Breast Cancer dataset, p = 0.1189). In conditions of simulated extreme scarcity of real world data, mean accuracy of machine learning models trained on generated data was significantly higher than mean accuracy of comparable models trained on scarce real world data (0.9533 versus 0.9067 on the Iris dataset, p < 0.0001, and 0.8692 versus 0.7701 on the Breast Cancer dataset, p = 0.0091). In conclusion, this novel algorithm can generate large artificial datasets to train machine learning models, in conditions of extreme scarcity of real world data, or when cost or data sensitivity prevent the collection of large real world datasets.

Unsupervised domain adaptation has recently emerged as an effective paradigm for generalizing deep neural networks to new target domains. However, there is still enormous potential to be tapped to reach the fully supervised performance. In this paper, we present a novel active learning strategy to assist knowledge transfer in the target domain, dubbed active domain adaptation. We start from an observation that energy-based models exhibit free energy biases when training (source) and test (target) data come from different distributions. Inspired by this inherent mechanism, we empirically reveal that a simple yet efficient energy-based sampling strategy sheds light on selecting the most valuable target samples than existing approaches requiring particular architectures or computation of the distances. Our algorithm, Energy-based Active Domain Adaptation (EADA), queries groups of targe data that incorporate both domain characteristic and instance uncertainty into every selection round. Meanwhile, by aligning the free energy of target data compact around the source domain via a regularization term, domain gap can be implicitly diminished. Through extensive experiments, we show that EADA surpasses state-of-the-art methods on well-known challenging benchmarks with substantial improvements, making it a useful option in the open world. Code is available at //github.com/BIT-DA/EADA.

Behaviors of the synthetic characters in current military simulations are limited since they are generally generated by rule-based and reactive computational models with minimal intelligence. Such computational models cannot adapt to reflect the experience of the characters, resulting in brittle intelligence for even the most effective behavior models devised via costly and labor-intensive processes. Observation-based behavior model adaptation that leverages machine learning and the experience of synthetic entities in combination with appropriate prior knowledge can address the issues in the existing computational behavior models to create a better training experience in military training simulations. In this paper, we introduce a framework that aims to create autonomous synthetic characters that can perform coherent sequences of believable behavior while being aware of human trainees and their needs within a training simulation. This framework brings together three mutually complementary components. The first component is a Unity-based simulation environment - Rapid Integration and Development Environment (RIDE) - supporting One World Terrain (OWT) models and capable of running and supporting machine learning experiments. The second is Shiva, a novel multi-agent reinforcement and imitation learning framework that can interface with a variety of simulation environments, and that can additionally utilize a variety of learning algorithms. The final component is the Sigma Cognitive Architecture that will augment the behavior models with symbolic and probabilistic reasoning capabilities. We have successfully created proof-of-concept behavior models leveraging this framework on realistic terrain as an essential step towards bringing machine learning into military simulations.

Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.