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We consider the variable selection problem for two-sample tests, aiming to select the most informative variables to distinguish samples from two groups. To solve this problem, we propose a framework based on the kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Our approach seeks a group of variables with a pre-specified size that maximizes the variance-regularized MMD statistics. This formulation also corresponds to the minimization of asymptotic type-II error while controlling type-I error, as studied in the literature. We present mixed-integer programming formulations and offer exact and approximation algorithms with performance guarantees for linear and quadratic types of kernel functions. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our framework.

Deep Learning (DL) methods have dramatically increased in popularity in recent years, with significant growth in their application to supervised learning problems in the biomedical sciences. However, the greater prevalence and complexity of missing data in modern biomedical datasets present significant challenges for DL methods. Here, we provide a formal treatment of missing data in the context of deeply learned generalized linear models, a supervised DL architecture for regression and classification problems. We propose a new architecture, \textit{dlglm}, that is one of the first to be able to flexibly account for both ignorable and non-ignorable patterns of missingness in input features and response at training time. We demonstrate through statistical simulation that our method outperforms existing approaches for supervised learning tasks in the presence of missing not at random (MNAR) missingness. We conclude with a case study of a Bank Marketing dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, in which we predict whether clients subscribed to a product based on phone survey data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

The logistic regression estimator is known to inflate the magnitude of its coefficients if the sample size $n$ is small, the dimension $p$ is (moderately) large or the signal-to-noise ratio $1/\sigma$ is large (probabilities of observing a label are close to 0 or 1). With this in mind, we study the logistic regression estimator with $p\ll n/\log n$, assuming Gaussian covariates and labels generated by the Gaussian link function, with a mild optimization constraint on the estimator's length to ensure existence. We provide finite sample guarantees for its direction, which serves as a classifier, and its Euclidean norm, which is an estimator for the signal-to-noise ratio. We distinguish between two regimes. In the low-noise/small-sample regime ($n\sigma\lesssim p\log n$), we show that the estimator's direction (and consequentially the classification error) achieve the rate $(p\log n)/n$ - as if the problem was noiseless. In this case, the norm of the estimator is at least of order $n/(p\log n)$. If instead $n\sigma\gtrsim p\log n$, the estimator's direction achieves the rate $\sqrt{\sigma p\log n/n}$, whereas its norm converges to the true norm at the rate $\sqrt{p\log n/(n\sigma^3)}$. As a corollary, the data are not linearly separable with high probability in this regime. The logistic regression estimator allows to conclude which regime occurs with high probability. Therefore, inference for logistic regression is possible in the regime $n\sigma\gtrsim p\log n$. In either case, logistic regression provides a competitive classifier.

We provide the first convergence guarantee for full black-box variational inference (BBVI), also known as Monte Carlo variational inference. While preliminary investigations worked on simplified versions of BBVI (e.g., bounded domain, bounded support, only optimizing for the scale, and such), our setup does not need any such algorithmic modifications. Our results hold for log-smooth posterior densities with and without strong log-concavity and the location-scale variational family. Also, our analysis reveals that certain algorithm design choices commonly employed in practice, particularly, nonlinear parameterizations of the scale of the variational approximation, can result in suboptimal convergence rates. Fortunately, running BBVI with proximal stochastic gradient descent fixes these limitations, and thus achieves the strongest known convergence rate guarantees. We evaluate this theoretical insight by comparing proximal SGD against other standard implementations of BBVI on large-scale Bayesian inference problems.

We propose a novel methodology (namely, MuLER) that transforms any reference-based evaluation metric for text generation, such as machine translation (MT) into a fine-grained analysis tool. Given a system and a metric, MuLER quantifies how much the chosen metric penalizes specific error types (e.g., errors in translating names of locations). MuLER thus enables a detailed error analysis which can lead to targeted improvement efforts for specific phenomena. We perform experiments in both synthetic and naturalistic settings to support MuLER's validity and showcase its usability in MT evaluation, and other tasks, such as summarization. Analyzing all submissions to WMT in 2014-2020, we find consistent trends. For example, nouns and verbs are among the most frequent POS tags. However, they are among the hardest to translate. Performance on most POS tags improves with overall system performance, but a few are not thus correlated (their identity changes from language to language). Preliminary experiments with summarization reveal similar trends.

We study the change point detection problem for high-dimensional linear regression models. The existing literature mainly focused on the change point estimation with stringent sub-Gaussian assumptions on the errors. In practice, however, there is no prior knowledge about the existence of a change point or the tail structures of errors. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose a novel tail-adaptive approach for simultaneous change point testing and estimation. The method is built on a new loss function which is a weighted combination between the composite quantile and least squared losses, allowing us to borrow information of the possible change points from both the conditional mean and quantiles. For the change point testing, based on the adjusted $L_2$-norm aggregation of a weighted score CUSUM process, we propose a family of individual testing statistics with different weights to account for the unknown tail structures. Combining the individual tests, a tail-adaptive test is further constructed that is powerful for sparse alternatives of regression coefficients' changes under various tail structures. For the change point estimation, a family of argmax-based individual estimators is proposed once a change point is detected. In theory, for both individual and tail-adaptive tests, the bootstrap procedures are proposed to approximate their limiting null distributions. Under some mild conditions, we justify the validity of the new tests in terms of size and power under the high-dimensional setup. The corresponding change point estimators are shown to be rate optimal up to a logarithm factor. Moreover, combined with the wild binary segmentation technique, a new algorithm is proposed to detect multiple change points in a tail-adaptive manner. Extensive numerical results are conducted to illustrate the appealing performance of the proposed method.

Applications of CAR for balancing continuous covariates remain comparatively rare, especially in multi-treatment clinical trials, and the theoretical properties of multi-treatment CAR have remained largely elusive for decades. In this paper, we consider a general framework of CAR procedures for multi-treatment clinal trials which can balance general covariate features, such as quadratic and interaction terms which can be discrete, continuous, and mixing. We show that under widely satisfied conditions the proposed procedures have superior balancing properties; in particular, the convergence rate of imbalance vectors can attain the best rate $O_P(1)$ for discrete covariates, continuous covariates, or combinations of both discrete and continuous covariates, and at the same time, the convergence rate of the imbalance of unobserved covariates is $O_P(\sqrt n)$, where $n$ is the sample size. The general framework unifies many existing methods and related theories, introduces a much broader class of new and useful CAR procedures, and provides new insights and a complete picture of the properties of CAR procedures. The favorable balancing properties lead to the precision of the treatment effect test in the presence of a heteroscedastic linear model with dependent covariate features. As an application, the properties of the test of treatment effect with unobserved covariates are studied under the CAR procedures, and consistent tests are proposed so that the test has an asymptotic precise type I error even if the working model is wrong and covariates are unobserved in the analysis.

Stein thinning is a promising algorithm proposed by (Riabiz et al., 2022) for post-processing outputs of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The main principle is to greedily minimize the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD), which only requires the gradient of the log-target distribution, and is thus well-suited for Bayesian inference. The main advantages of Stein thinning are the automatic remove of the burn-in period, the correction of the bias introduced by recent MCMC algorithms, and the asymptotic properties of convergence towards the target distribution. Nevertheless, Stein thinning suffers from several empirical pathologies, which may result in poor approximations, as observed in the literature. In this article, we conduct a theoretical analysis of these pathologies, to clearly identify the mechanisms at stake, and suggest improved strategies. Then, we introduce the regularized Stein thinning algorithm to alleviate the identified pathologies. Finally, theoretical guarantees and extensive experiments show the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

The Inverse-Wishart (IW) distribution is a standard and popular choice of priors for covariance matrices and has attractive properties such as conditional conjugacy. However, the IW family of priors has crucial drawbacks, including the lack of effective choices for non-informative priors. Several classes of priors for covariance matrices that alleviate these drawbacks, while preserving computational tractability, have been proposed in the literature. These priors can be obtained through appropriate scale mixtures of IW priors. However, the high-dimensional posterior consistency of models which incorporate such priors has not been investigated. We address this issue for the multi-response regression setting ($q$ responses, $n$ samples) under a wide variety of IW scale mixture priors for the error covariance matrix. Posterior consistency and contraction rates for both the regression coefficient matrix and the error covariance matrix are established in the ``large $q$, large $n$" setting under mild assumptions on the true data-generating covariance matrix and relevant hyperparameters. In particular, the number of responses $q_n$ is allowed to grow with $n$, but with $q_n = o(n)$. Also, some results related to the inconsistency of posterior mean for $q_n/n \to \gamma$, where $\gamma \in (0,\infty)$ are provided.

Classification is often the first problem described in introductory machine learning classes. Generalization guarantees of classification have historically been offered by Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory. Yet those guarantees are based on intractable algorithms, which has led to the theory of surrogate methods in classification. Guarantees offered by surrogate methods are based on calibration inequalities, which have been shown to be highly sub-optimal under some margin conditions, failing short to capture exponential convergence phenomena. Those "super" fast rates are becoming to be well understood for smooth surrogates, but the picture remains blurry for non-smooth losses such as the hinge loss, associated with the renowned support vector machines. In this paper, we present a simple mechanism to obtain fast convergence rates and we investigate its usage for SVM. In particular, we show that SVM can exhibit exponential convergence rates even without assuming the hard Tsybakov margin condition.