We propose to model matrix time series based on a tensor CP-decomposition. Instead of using an iterative algorithm which is the standard practice for estimating CP-decompositions, we propose a new and one-pass estimation procedure based on a generalized eigenanalysis constructed from the serial dependence structure of the underlying process. A key idea of the new procedure is to project a generalized eigenequation defined in terms of rank-reduced matrices to a lower-dimensional one with full-ranked matrices, to avoid the intricacy of the former of which the number of eigenvalues can be zero, finite and infinity. The asymptotic theory has been established under a general setting without the stationarity. It shows, for example, that all the component coefficient vectors in the CP-decomposition are estimated consistently with the different error rates, depending on the relative sizes between the dimensions of time series and the sample size. The proposed model and the estimation method are further illustrated with both simulated and real data; showing effective dimension-reduction in modelling and forecasting matrix time series.
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This work proposes a new framework of model reduction for parametric complex systems. The framework employs a popular model reduction technique dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), which is capable of combining data-driven learning and physics ingredients based on the Koopman operator theory. In the offline step of the proposed framework, DMD constructs a low-rank linear surrogate model for the high dimensional quantities of interest (QoIs) derived from the (nonlinear) complex high fidelity models (HFMs) of unknown forms. Then in the online step, the resulting local reduced order bases (ROBs) and parametric reduced order models (PROMs) at the training parameter sample points are interpolated to construct a new PROM with the corresponding ROB for a new set of target/test parameter values. The interpolations need to be done on the appropriate manifolds within consistent sets of generalized coordinates. The proposed framework is illustrated by numerical examples for both linear and nonlinear problems. In particular, its advantages in computational costs and accuracy are demonstrated by the comparisons with projection-based proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-PROM and Kriging.
We consider the problem of extracting joint and individual signals from multi-view data, that is data collected from different sources on matched samples. While existing methods for multi-view data decomposition explore single matching of data by samples, we focus on double-matched multi-view data (matched by both samples and source features). Our motivating example is the miRNA data collected from both primary tumor and normal tissues of the same subjects; the measurements from two tissues are thus matched both by subjects and by miRNAs. Our proposed double-matched matrix decomposition allows to simultaneously extract joint and individual signals across subjects, as well as joint and individual signals across miRNAs. Our estimation approach takes advantage of double-matching by formulating a new type of optimization problem with explicit row space and column space constraints, for which we develop an efficient iterative algorithm. Numerical studies indicate that taking advantage of double-matching leads to superior signal estimation performance compared to existing multi-view data decomposition based on single-matching. We apply our method to miRNA data as well as data from the English Premier League soccer matches, and find joint and individual multi-view signals that align with domain specific knowledge.
We propose a decomposition method for the spectral peaks in an observed frequency spectrum, which is efficiently acquired by utilizing the Fast Fourier Transform. In contrast to the traditional methods of waveform fitting on the spectrum, we optimize the problem from a more robust perspective. We model the peaks in spectrum as pseudo-symmetric functions, where the only constraint is a nonincreasing behavior around a central frequency when the distance increases. Our approach is more robust against arbitrary distortion, interference and noise on the spectrum that may be caused by an observation system. The time complexity of our method is linear, i.e., $O(N)$ per extracted spectral peak. Moreover, the decomposed spectral peaks show a pseudo-orthogonal behavior, where they conform to a power preserving equality.
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.
SVD (singular value decomposition) is one of the basic tools of machine learning, allowing to optimize basis for a given matrix. However, sometimes we have a set of matrices $\{A_k\}_k$ instead, and would like to optimize a single common basis for them: find orthogonal matrices $U$, $V$, such that $\{U^T A_k V\}$ set of matrices is somehow simpler. For example DCT-II is orthonormal basis of functions commonly used in image/video compression - as discussed here, this kind of basis can be quickly automatically optimized for a given dataset. While also discussed gradient descent optimization might be computationally costly, there is proposed CSVD (common SVD): fast general approach based on SVD. Specifically, we choose $U$ as built of eigenvectors of $\sum_i (w_k)^q (A_k A_k^T)^p$ and $V$ of $\sum_k (w_k)^q (A_k^T A_k)^p$, where $w_k$ are their weights, $p,q>0$ are some chosen powers e.g. 1/2, optionally with normalization e.g. $A \to A - rc^T$ where $r_i=\sum_j A_{ij}, c_j =\sum_i A_{ij}$.
This paper proposes a numerical method based on the Adomian decomposition approach for the time discretization, applied to Euler equations. A recursive property is demonstrated that allows to formulate the method in an appropriate and efficient way. To obtain a fully numerical scheme, the space discretization is achieved using the classical DG techniques. The efficiency of the obtained numerical scheme is demonstrated through numerical tests by comparison to exact solution and the popular Runge-Kutta DG method results.
Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) are commonly employed for time series analysis due to their versatile structure, simple recursive updating, ability to handle missing data, and probabilistic forecasting. However, the options for count time series are limited: Gaussian DLMs require continuous data, while Poisson-based alternatives often lack sufficient modeling flexibility. We introduce a novel semiparametric methodology for count time series by warping a Gaussian DLM. The warping function has two components: a (nonparametric) transformation operator that provides distributional flexibility and a rounding operator that ensures the correct support for the discrete data-generating process. We develop conjugate inference for the warped DLM, which enables analytic and recursive updates for the state space filtering and smoothing distributions. We leverage these results to produce customized and efficient algorithms for inference and forecasting, including Monte Carlo simulation for offline analysis and an optimal particle filter for online inference. This framework unifies and extends a variety of discrete time series models and is valid for natural counts, rounded values, and multivariate observations. Simulation studies illustrate the excellent forecasting capabilities of the warped DLM. The proposed approach is applied to a multivariate time series of daily overdose counts and demonstrates both modeling and computational successes.
Sparse decision tree optimization has been one of the most fundamental problems in AI since its inception and is a challenge at the core of interpretable machine learning. Sparse decision tree optimization is computationally hard, and despite steady effort since the 1960's, breakthroughs have only been made on the problem within the past few years, primarily on the problem of finding optimal sparse decision trees. However, current state-of-the-art algorithms often require impractical amounts of computation time and memory to find optimal or near-optimal trees for some real-world datasets, particularly those having several continuous-valued features. Given that the search spaces of these decision tree optimization problems are massive, can we practically hope to find a sparse decision tree that competes in accuracy with a black box machine learning model? We address this problem via smart guessing strategies that can be applied to any optimal branch-and-bound-based decision tree algorithm. We show that by using these guesses, we can reduce the run time by multiple orders of magnitude, while providing bounds on how far the resulting trees can deviate from the black box's accuracy and expressive power. Our approach enables guesses about how to bin continuous features, the size of the tree, and lower bounds on the error for the optimal decision tree. Our experiments show that in many cases we can rapidly construct sparse decision trees that match the accuracy of black box models. To summarize: when you are having trouble optimizing, just guess.
CP decomposition (CPD) is prevalent in chemometrics, signal processing, data mining and many more fields. While many algorithms have been proposed to compute the CPD, alternating least squares (ALS) remains one of the most widely used algorithm for computing the decomposition. Recent works have introduced the notion of eigenvalues and singular values of a tensor and explored applications of eigenvectors and singular vectors in areas like signal processing, data analytics and in various other fields. We introduce a new formulation for deriving singular values and vectors of a tensor by considering the critical points of a function different from what is used in the previous work. Computing these critical points in an alternating manner motivates an alternating optimization algorithm which corresponds to alternating least squares algorithm in the matrix case. However, for tensors with order greater than equal to $3$, it minimizes an objective function which is different from the commonly used least squares loss. Alternating optimization of this new objective leads to simple updates to the factor matrices with the same asymptotic computational cost as ALS. We show that a subsweep of this algorithm can achieve a superlinear convergence rate for exact CPD with known rank and verify it experimentally. We then view the algorithm as optimizing a Mahalanobis distance with respect to each factor with ground metric dependent on the other factors. This perspective allows us to generalize our approach to interpolate between updates corresponding to the ALS and the new algorithm to manage the tradeoff between stability and fitness of the decomposition. Our experimental results show that for approximating synthetic and real-world tensors, this algorithm and its variants converge to a better conditioned decomposition with comparable and sometimes better fitness as compared to the ALS algorithm.
Co-evolving time series appears in a multitude of applications such as environmental monitoring, financial analysis, and smart transportation. This paper aims to address the following challenges, including (C1) how to incorporate explicit relationship networks of the time series; (C2) how to model the implicit relationship of the temporal dynamics. We propose a novel model called Network of Tensor Time Series, which is comprised of two modules, including Tensor Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) and Tensor Recurrent Neural Network (TRNN). TGCN tackles the first challenge by generalizing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for flat graphs to tensor graphs, which captures the synergy between multiple graphs associated with the tensors. TRNN leverages tensor decomposition to model the implicit relationships among co-evolving time series. The experimental results on five real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
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