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Gaussian distributions are widely used in Bayesian variational inference to approximate intractable posterior densities, but the ability to accommodate skewness can improve approximation accuracy significantly, especially when data or prior information is scarce. We study the properties of a subclass of closed skew normals constructed using affine transformation of independent standardized univariate skew normals as the variational density, and illustrate how this subclass provides increased flexibility and accuracy in approximating the joint posterior density in a variety of applications by overcoming limitations in existing skew normal variational approximations. The evidence lower bound is optimized using stochastic gradient ascent, where analytic natural gradient updates are derived. We also demonstrate how problems in maximum likelihood estimation of skew normal parameters occur similarly in stochastic variational inference and can be resolved using the centered parametrization.

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The selection of Gaussian kernel parameters plays an important role in the applications of support vector classification (SVC). A commonly used method is the k-fold cross validation with grid search (CV), which is extremely time-consuming because it needs to train a large number of SVC models. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to train SVC and optimize the selection of Gaussian kernel parameters. We first formulate the training and parameter selection of SVC as a minimax optimization problem named as MaxMin-L2-SVC-NCH, in which the minimization problem is an optimization problem of finding the closest points between two normal convex hulls (L2-SVC-NCH) while the maximization problem is an optimization problem of finding the optimal Gaussian kernel parameters. A lower time complexity can be expected in MaxMin-L2-SVC-NCH because CV is not needed. We then propose a projected gradient algorithm (PGA) for training L2-SVC-NCH. The famous sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm is a special case of the PGA. Thus, the PGA can provide more flexibility than the SMO. Furthermore, the solution of the maximization problem is done by a gradient ascent algorithm with dynamic learning rate. The comparative experiments between MaxMin-L2-SVC-NCH and the previous best approaches on public datasets show that MaxMin-L2-SVC-NCH greatly reduces the number of models to be trained while maintaining competitive test accuracy. These findings indicate that MaxMin-L2-SVC-NCH is a better choice for SVC tasks.

In this paper, we propose the Minimum Regularized Covariance Trace (MRCT) estimator, a novel method for robust covariance estimation and functional outlier detection. The MRCT estimator employs a subset-based approach that prioritizes subsets exhibiting greater centrality based on the generalization of the Mahalanobis distance, resulting in a fast-MCD type algorithm. Notably, the MRCT estimator handles high-dimensional data sets without the need for preprocessing or dimension reduction techniques, due to the internal smoothening whose amount is determined by the regularization parameter $\alpha > 0$. The selection of the regularization parameter $\alpha$ is automated. The proposed method adapts seamlessly to sparsely observed data by working directly with the finite matrix of basis coefficients. An extensive simulation study demonstrates the efficacy of the MRCT estimator in terms of robust covariance estimation and automated outlier detection, emphasizing the balance between noise exclusion and signal preservation achieved through appropriate selection of $\alpha$. The method converges fast in practice and performs favorably when compared to other functional outlier detection methods.

Model-based control requires an accurate model of the system dynamics for precisely and safely controlling the robot in complex and dynamic environments. Moreover, in the presence of variations in the operating conditions, the model should be continuously refined to compensate for dynamics changes. In this paper, we present a self-supervised learning approach that actively models the dynamics of nonlinear robotic systems. We combine offline learning from past experience and online learning from current robot interaction with the unknown environment. These two ingredients enable a highly sample-efficient and adaptive learning process, capable of accurately inferring model dynamics in real-time even in operating regimes that greatly differ from the training distribution. Moreover, we design an uncertainty-aware model predictive controller that is heuristically conditioned to the aleatoric (data) uncertainty of the learned dynamics. This controller actively chooses the optimal control actions that (i) optimize the control performance and (ii) improve the efficiency of online learning sample collection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through a series of challenging real-world experiments using a quadrotor system. Our approach showcases high resilience and generalization capabilities by consistently adapting to unseen flight conditions, while it significantly outperforms classical and adaptive control baselines.

In this short note, we discuss the circumstances that can lead to a failure to observe the design order of discretization error convergence in accuracy verification when solving a time-dependent problem. In particular, we discuss the problem of failing to observe the design order of spatial accuracy with an extremely small time step. The same problem is encountered even if the time step is reduced with grid refinement. These can cause a serious problem because then one would wind up trying to find a coding error that does not exist. This short note clarifies the mechanism causing this failure and provides a guide for avoiding such pitfalls

A generalization of a recently introduced recursive numerical method for the exact evaluation of integrals of regular solid harmonics and their normal derivatives over simplex elements in $\mathbb{R}^3$ is presented. The original Quadrature to Expansion (Q2X) method achieves optimal per-element asymptotic complexity, however, it considered only constant density functions over the elements. Here, we generalize this method to support arbitrary degree polynomial density functions, which is achieved in an extended recursive framework while maintaining the optimality of the complexity. The method is derived for 1- and 2- simplex elements in $\mathbb{R}^3$ and can be used for the boundary element method and vortex methods coupled with the fast multipole method.

Multivariate functional data that are cross-sectionally compositional data are attracting increasing interest in the statistical modeling literature, a major example being trajectories over time of compositions derived from cause-specific mortality rates. In this work, we develop a novel functional concurrent regression model in which independent variables are functional compositions. This allows us to investigate the relationship over time between life expectancy at birth and compositions derived from cause-specific mortality rates of four distinct age classes, namely 0--4, 5--39, 40--64 and 65+. A penalized approach is developed to estimate the regression coefficients and select the relevant variables. Then an efficient computational strategy based on an augmented Lagrangian algorithm is derived to solve the resulting optimization problem. The good performances of the model in predicting the response function and estimating the unknown functional coefficients are shown in a simulation study. The results on real data confirm the important role of neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases in determining life expectancy emerged in other studies and reveal several other contributions not yet observed.

Dense kernel matrices resulting from pairwise evaluations of a kernel function arise naturally in machine learning and statistics. Previous work in constructing sparse approximate inverse Cholesky factors of such matrices by minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence recovers the Vecchia approximation for Gaussian processes. These methods rely only on the geometry of the evaluation points to construct the sparsity pattern. In this work, we instead construct the sparsity pattern by leveraging a greedy selection algorithm that maximizes mutual information with target points, conditional on all points previously selected. For selecting $k$ points out of $N$, the naive time complexity is $\mathcal{O}(N k^4)$, but by maintaining a partial Cholesky factor we reduce this to $\mathcal{O}(N k^2)$. Furthermore, for multiple ($m$) targets we achieve a time complexity of $\mathcal{O}(N k^2 + N m^2 + m^3)$, which is maintained in the setting of aggregated Cholesky factorization where a selected point need not condition every target. We apply the selection algorithm to image classification and recovery of sparse Cholesky factors. By minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence, we apply the algorithm to Cholesky factorization, Gaussian process regression, and preconditioning with the conjugate gradient, improving over $k$-nearest neighbors selection.

Sampling from diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) can be viewed as a piecewise distribution transformation, which generally requires hundreds or thousands of steps of the inverse diffusion trajectory to get a high-quality image. Recent progress in designing fast samplers for DPMs achieves a trade-off between sampling speed and sample quality by knowledge distillation or adjusting the variance schedule or the denoising equation. However, it can't be optimal in both aspects and often suffer from mode mixture in short steps. To tackle this problem, we innovatively regard inverse diffusion as an optimal transport (OT) problem between latents at different stages and propose the DPM-OT, a unified learning framework for fast DPMs with a direct expressway represented by OT map, which can generate high-quality samples within around 10 function evaluations. By calculating the semi-discrete optimal transport map between the data latents and the white noise, we obtain an expressway from the prior distribution to the data distribution, while significantly alleviating the problem of mode mixture. In addition, we give the error bound of the proposed method, which theoretically guarantees the stability of the algorithm. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness and advantages of DPM-OT in terms of speed and quality (FID and mode mixture), thus representing an efficient solution for generative modeling. Source codes are available at //github.com/cognaclee/DPM-OT

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time series. The challenge is two-fold: not only do computations scale linearly with time, as in the linear case, but particle filters additionally suffer from increasing particle degeneracy with longer series. Stochastic gradient MCMC methods have been developed to scale Bayesian inference for finite-state hidden Markov models and linear SSMs using buffered stochastic gradient estimates to account for temporal dependencies. We extend these stochastic gradient estimators to nonlinear SSMs using particle methods. We present error bounds that account for both buffering error and particle error in the case of nonlinear SSMs that are log-concave in the latent process. We evaluate our proposed particle buffered stochastic gradient using stochastic gradient MCMC for inference on both long sequential synthetic and minute-resolution financial returns data, demonstrating the importance of this class of methods.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.

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