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Our knowledge of the organisation of the human brain at the population-level is yet to translate into power to predict functional differences at the individual-level, limiting clinical applications, and casting doubt on the generalisability of inferred mechanisms. It remains unknown whether the difficulty arises from the absence of individuating biological patterns within the brain, or from limited power to access them with the models and compute at our disposal. Here we comprehensively investigate the resolvability of such patterns with data and compute at unprecedented scale. Across 23 810 unique participants from UK Biobank, we systematically evaluate the predictability of 25 individual biological characteristics, from all available combinations of structural and functional neuroimaging data. Over 4526 GPU hours of computation, we train, optimize, and evaluate out-of-sample 700 individual predictive models, including fully-connected feed-forward neural networks of demographic, psychological, serological, chronic disease, and functional connectivity characteristics, and both uni- and multi-modal 3D convolutional neural network models of macro- and micro-structural brain imaging. We find a marked discrepancy between the high predictability of sex (balanced accuracy 99.7%), age (mean absolute error 2.048 years, R2 0.859), and weight (mean absolute error 2.609Kg, R2 0.625), for which we set new state-of-the-art performance, and the surprisingly low predictability of other characteristics. Neither structural nor functional imaging predicted psychology better than the coincidence of chronic disease (p<0.05). Serology predicted chronic disease (p<0.05) and was best predicted by it (p<0.001), followed by structural neuroimaging (p<0.05). Our findings suggest either more informative imaging or more powerful models are needed to decipher individual level characteristics from the human brain.

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Artificial neural networks are often interpreted as abstract models of biological neuronal networks, but they are typically trained using the biologically unrealistic backpropagation algorithm and its variants. Predictive coding has been proposed as a potentially more biologically realistic alternative to backpropagation for training neural networks. This manuscript reviews and extends recent work on the mathematical relationship between predictive coding and backpropagation for training feedforward artificial neural networks on supervised learning tasks. Implications of these results for the interpretation of predictive coding and deep neural networks as models of biological learning are discussed along with a repository of functions, Torch2PC, for performing predictive coding with PyTorch neural network models.

Training spiking neural networks to approximate complex functions is essential for studying information processing in the brain and neuromorphic computing. Yet, the binary nature of spikes constitutes a challenge for direct gradient-based training. To sidestep this problem, surrogate gradients have proven empirically successful, but their theoretical foundation remains elusive. Here, we investigate the relation of surrogate gradients to two theoretically well-founded approaches. On the one hand, we consider smoothed probabilistic models, which, due to lack of support for automatic differentiation, are impractical for training deep spiking neural networks, yet provide gradients equivalent to surrogate gradients in single neurons. On the other hand, we examine stochastic automatic differentiation, which is compatible with discrete randomness but has never been applied to spiking neural network training. We find that the latter provides the missing theoretical basis for surrogate gradients in stochastic spiking neural networks. We further show that surrogate gradients in deterministic networks correspond to a particular asymptotic case and numerically confirm the effectiveness of surrogate gradients in stochastic multi-layer spiking neural networks. Finally, we illustrate that surrogate gradients are not conservative fields and, thus, not gradients of a surrogate loss. Our work provides the missing theoretical foundation for surrogate gradients and an analytically well-founded solution for end-to-end training of stochastic spiking neural networks.

We argue that the current POW based consensus algorithm of the Bitcoin network suffers from a fundamental economic discrepancy between the real world transaction (txn) costs incurred by miners and the wealth that is being transacted. Put simply, whether one transacts 1 satoshi or 1 bitcoin, the same amount of electricity is needed when including this txn into a block. The notorious Bitcoin blockchain problems such as its high energy usage per txn or its scalability issues are, either partially or fully, mere consequences of this fundamental economic inconsistency. We propose making the computational cost of securing the txns proportional to the wealth being transferred, at least temporarily. First, we present a simple incentive based model of Bitcoin's security. Then, guided by this model, we augment each txn by two parameters, one controlling the time spent securing this txn and the second determining the fraction of the network used to accomplish this. The current Bitcoin txns are naturally embedded into this parametrized space. Then we introduce a sequence of hierarchical block structures (HBSs) containing these parametrized txns. The first of those HBSs exploits only a single degree of freedom of the extended txn, namely the time investment, but it allows already for txns with a variable level of trust together with aligned network fees and energy usage. In principle, the last HBS should scale to tens of thousands timely txns per second while preserving what the previous HBSs achieved. We also propose a simple homotopy based transition mechanism which enables us to relatively safely and continuously introduce new HBSs into the existing blockchain. Our approach is constructive and as rigorous as possible and we attempt to analyze all aspects of these developments, al least at a conceptual level. The process is supported by evaluation on recent transaction data.

Many analyses of multivariate data focus on evaluating the dependence between two sets of variables, rather than the dependence among individual variables within each set. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a classical data analysis technique that estimates parameters describing the dependence between such sets. However, inference procedures based on traditional CCA rely on the assumption that all variables are jointly normally distributed. We present a semiparametric approach to CCA in which the multivariate margins of each variable set may be arbitrary, but the dependence between variable sets is described by a parametric model that provides low-dimensional summaries of dependence. While maximum likelihood estimation in the proposed model is intractable, we propose two estimation strategies: one using a pseudolikelihood for the model and one using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that provides Bayesian estimates and confidence regions for the between-set dependence parameters. The MCMC algorithm is derived from a multirank likelihood function, which uses only part of the information in the observed data in exchange for being free of assumptions about the multivariate margins. We apply the proposed Bayesian inference procedure to Brazilian climate data and monthly stock returns from the materials and communications market sectors.

Average calibration of the prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression tasks can be tested in two ways: one is to estimate the calibration error (CE) as the difference between the mean absolute error (MSE) and the mean variance (MV) or mean squared uncertainty; the alternative is to compare the mean squared z-scores (ZMS) or scaled errors to 1. The problem is that both approaches might lead to different conclusions, as illustrated in this study for an ensemble of datasets from the recent machine learning uncertainty quantification (ML-UQ) literature. It is shown that the estimation of MV, MSE and their confidence intervals can become unreliable for heavy-tailed uncertainty and error distributions, which seems to be a common issue for ML-UQ datasets. By contrast, the ZMS statistic is less sensitive and offers the most reliable approach in this context. Unfortunately, the same problem affects also conditional calibrations statistics, such as the popular ENCE, and very likely post-hoc calibration methods based on similar statistics. As not much can be done to relieve this issue, except for a change of paradigm to intervals- or distribution-based UQ metrics, robust tailedness metrics are proposed to detect the potentially problematic datasets.

While computer modeling and simulation are crucial for understanding scientometrics, their practical use in literature remains somewhat limited. In this study, we establish a joint coauthorship and citation network using preferential attachment. As papers get published, we update the coauthorship network based on each paper's author list, representing the collaborative team behind it. This team is formed considering the number of collaborations each author has, and we introduce new authors at a fixed probability, expanding the coauthorship network. Simultaneously, as each paper cites a specific number of references, we add an equivalent number of citations to the citation network upon publication. The likelihood of a paper being cited depends on its existing citations, fitness value, and age. Then we calculate the journal impact factor and h-index, using them as examples of scientific impact indicators. After thorough validation, we conduct case studies to analyze the impact of different parameters on the journal impact factor and h-index. The findings reveal that increasing the reference number N or reducing the paper's lifetime {\theta} significantly boosts the journal impact factor and average h-index. On the other hand, enlarging the team size m without introducing new authors or decreasing the probability of newcomers p notably increases the average h-index. In conclusion, it is evident that various parameters influence scientific impact indicators, and their interpretation can be manipulated by authors. Thus, exploring the impact of these parameters and continually refining scientific impact indicators are essential. The modeling and simulation method serves as a powerful tool in this ongoing process, and the model can be easily extended to include other scientific impact indicators and scenarios.

Successfully addressing a wide variety of tasks is a core ability of autonomous agents, requiring flexibly adapting the underlying decision-making strategies and, as we argue in this work, also adapting the perception modules. An analogical argument would be the human visual system, which uses top-down signals to focus attention determined by the current task. Similarly, we adapt pre-trained large vision models conditioned on specific downstream tasks in the context of multi-task policy learning. We introduce task-conditioned adapters that do not require finetuning any pre-trained weights, combined with a single policy trained with behavior cloning and capable of addressing multiple tasks. We condition the visual adapters on task embeddings, which can be selected at inference if the task is known, or alternatively inferred from a set of example demonstrations. To this end, we propose a new optimization-based estimator. We evaluate the method on a wide variety of tasks from the CortexBench benchmark and show that, compared to existing work, it can be addressed with a single policy. In particular, we demonstrate that adapting visual features is a key design choice and that the method generalizes to unseen tasks given a few demonstrations.

Any interactive protocol between a pair of parties can be reliably simulated in the presence of noise with a multiplicative overhead on the number of rounds (Schulman 1996). The reciprocal of the best (least) overhead is called the interactive capacity of the noisy channel. In this work, we present lower bounds on the interactive capacity of the binary erasure channel. Our lower bound improves the best known bound due to Ben-Yishai et al. 2021 by roughly a factor of 1.75. The improvement is due to a tighter analysis of the correctness of the simulation protocol using error pattern analysis. More precisely, instead of using the well-known technique of bounding the least number of erasures needed to make the simulation fail, we identify and bound the probability of specific erasure patterns causing simulation failure. We remark that error pattern analysis can be useful in solving other problems involving stochastic noise, such as bounding the interactive capacity of different channels.

Software is a central part of modern science, and knowledge of its use is crucial for the scientific community with respect to reproducibility and attribution of its developers. Several studies have investigated in-text mentions of software and its quality, while the quality of formal software citations has only been analyzed superficially. This study performs an in-depth evaluation of formal software citation based on a set of manually annotated software references. It examines which resources are cited for software usage, to what extend they allow proper identification of software and its specific version, how this information is made available by scientific publishers, and how well it is represented in large-scale bibliographic databases. The results show that software articles are the most cited resource for software, while direct software citations are better suited for identification of software versions. Moreover, we found current practices by both, publishers and bibliographic databases, to be unsuited to represent these direct software citations, hindering large-scale analyses such as assessing software impact. We argue that current practices for representing software citations -- the recommended way to cite software by current citation standards -- stand in the way of their adaption by the scientific community, and urge providers of bibliographic data to explicitly model scientific software.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) of real-world facts about entities and their relationships are useful resources for a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, because knowledge graphs are typically incomplete, it is useful to perform knowledge graph completion or link prediction, i.e. predict whether a relationship not in the knowledge graph is likely to be true. This paper serves as a comprehensive survey of embedding models of entities and relationships for knowledge graph completion, summarizing up-to-date experimental results on standard benchmark datasets and pointing out potential future research directions.

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