Accurate intraday forecasts of the power output by PhotoVoltaic (PV) systems are critical to improve the operation of energy distribution grids. We describe a neural autoregressive model which aims at performing such intraday forecasts. We build upon a physical, deterministic PV performance model, the output of which being used as covariates in the context of the neural model. In addition, our application data relates to a geographically distributed set of PV systems. We address all PV sites with a single neural model, which embeds the information about the PV site in specific covariates. We use a scale-free approach which does rely on explicit modelling of seasonal effects. Our proposal repurposes a model initially used in the retail sector, and discloses a novel truncated Gaussian output distribution. An ablation study and a comparison to alternative architectures from the literature shows that the components in the best performing proposed model variant work synergistically to reach a skill score of 15.72% with respect to the physical model, used as a baseline.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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The introduction of more renewable energy sources into the energy system increases the variability and weather dependence of electricity generation. Power system simulations are used to assess the adequacy and reliability of the electricity grid over decades, but often become computational intractable for such long simulation periods with high technical detail. To alleviate this computational burden, we investigate the use of outlier detection algorithms to find periods of extreme renewable energy generation which enables detailed modelling of the performance of power systems under these circumstances. Specifically, we apply the Maximum Divergent Intervals (MDI) algorithm to power generation time series that have been derived from ERA5 historical climate reanalysis covering the period from 1950 through 2019. By applying the MDI algorithm on these time series, we identified intervals of extreme low and high energy production. To determine the outlierness of an interval different divergence measures can be used. Where the cross-entropy measure results in shorter and strongly peaking outliers, the unbiased Kullback-Leibler divergence tends to detect longer and more persistent intervals. These intervals are regarded as potential risks for the electricity grid by domain experts, showcasing the capability of the MDI algorithm to detect critical events in these time series. For the historical period analysed, we found no trend in outlier intensity, or shift and lengthening of the outliers that could be attributed to climate change. By applying MDI on climate model output, power system modellers can investigate the adequacy and possible changes of risk for the current and future electricity grid under a wider range of scenarios.
Metabolic energy consumption of a powered lower-limb exoskeleton user mainly comes from the upper body effort since the lower body is considered to be passive. However, the upper body effort of the users is largely ignored in the literature when designing motion controllers. In this work, we use deep reinforcement learning to develop a locomotion controller that minimizes ground reaction forces (GRF) on crutches. The rationale for minimizing GRF is to reduce the upper body effort of the user. Accordingly, we design a model and a learning framework for a human-exoskeleton system with crutches. We formulate a reward function to encourage the forward displacement of a human-exoskeleton system while satisfying the predetermined constraints of a physical robot. We evaluate our new framework using Proximal Policy Optimization, a state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, on the MuJoCo physics simulator with different hyperparameters and network architectures over multiple trials. We empirically show that our learning model can generate joint torques based on the joint angle, velocities, and the GRF on the feet and crutch tips. The resulting exoskeleton model can directly generate joint torques from states in line with the RL framework. Finally, we empirically show that policy trained using our method can generate a gait with a 35% reduction in GRF with respect to the baseline.
User expectations impact the evaluation of new interactive systems. Elevated expectations may enhance the perceived effectiveness of interfaces in user studies, similar to a placebo effect observed in medical studies. To showcase the placebo effect, we executed a user study with 18 participants who conducted a reaction time test with two different computer screen refresh rates. Participants saw a stated screen refresh rate before every condition, which corresponded to the true refresh rate only in half of the conditions and was lower or higher in the other half. Results revealed successful priming, as participants believed in superior or inferior performance based on the narrative despite using the opposite refresh rate. Post-experiment questionnaires confirmed participants still held onto the initial narrative. Interestingly, the objective performance remained unchanged between both refresh rates. We discuss how study narratives can influence subjective measures and suggest strategies to mitigate placebo effects in user-centered study designs.
The effectiveness of an IR system is gauged not just by its ability to retrieve relevant results but also by how it presents these results to users; an engaging presentation often correlates with increased user satisfaction. While existing research has delved into the link between user satisfaction, IR performance metrics, and presentation, these aspects have typically been investigated in isolation. Our research aims to bridge this gap by examining the relationship between query performance, presentation and user satisfaction. For our analysis, we conducted a between-subjects experiment comparing the effectiveness of various result card layouts for an ad-hoc news search interface. Drawing data from the TREC WaPo 2018 collection, we centered our study on four specific topics. Within each of these topics, we assessed six distinct queries with varying nDCG values. Our study involved 164 participants who were exposed to one of five distinct layouts containing result cards, such as "title'', "title+image'', or "title+image+summary''. Our findings indicate that while nDCG is a strong predictor of user satisfaction at the query level, there exists no linear relationship between the performance of the query, presentation of results and user satisfaction. However, when considering the total gain on the initial result page, we observed that presentation does play a significant role in user satisfaction (at the query level) for certain layouts with result cards such as, title+image or title+image+summary. Our results also suggest that the layout differences have complex and multifaceted impacts on satisfaction. We demonstrate the capacity to equalize user satisfaction levels between queries of varying performance by changing how results are presented. This emphasizes the necessity to harmonize both performance and presentation in IR systems, considering users' diverse preferences.
A common forecasting setting in real world applications considers a set of possibly heterogeneous time series of the same domain. Due to different properties of each time series such as length, obtaining forecasts for each individual time series in a straight-forward way is challenging. This paper proposes a general framework utilizing a similarity measure in Dynamic Time Warping to find similar time series to build neighborhoods in a k-Nearest Neighbor fashion, and improve forecasts of possibly simple models by averaging. Several ways of performing the averaging are suggested, and theoretical arguments underline the usefulness of averaging for forecasting. Additionally, diagnostics tools are proposed allowing a deep understanding of the procedure.
As semiconductor power density is no longer constant with the technology process scaling down, modern CPUs are integrating capable data accelerators on chip, aiming to improve performance and efficiency for a wide range of applications and usages. One such accelerator is the Intel Data Streaming Accelerator (DSA) introduced in Intel 4th Generation Xeon Scalable CPUs (Sapphire Rapids). DSA targets data movement operations in memory that are common sources of overhead in datacenter workloads and infrastructure. In addition, it becomes much more versatile by supporting a wider range of operations on streaming data, such as CRC32 calculations, delta record creation/merging, and data integrity field (DIF) operations. This paper sets out to introduce the latest features supported by DSA, deep-dive into its versatility, and analyze its throughput benefits through a comprehensive evaluation. Along with the analysis of its characteristics, and the rich software ecosystem of DSA, we summarize several insights and guidelines for the programmer to make the most out of DSA, and use an in-depth case study of DPDK Vhost to demonstrate how these guidelines benefit a real application.
Phenomenological (P-type) bifurcations are qualitative changes in stochastic dynamical systems whereby the stationary probability density function (PDF) changes its topology. The current state of the art for detecting these bifurcations requires reliable kernel density estimates computed from an ensemble of system realizations. However, in several real world signals such as Big Data, only a single system realization is available -- making it impossible to estimate a reliable kernel density. This study presents an approach for detecting P-type bifurcations using unreliable density estimates. The approach creates an ensemble of objects from Topological Data Analysis (TDA) called persistence diagrams from the system's sole realization and statistically analyzes the resulting set. We compare several methods for replicating the original persistence diagram including Gibbs point process modelling, Pairwise Interaction Point Modelling, and subsampling. We show that for the purpose of predicting a bifurcation, the simple method of subsampling exceeds the other two methods of point process modelling in performance.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated to be a powerful algorithmic model in broad application fields for their effectiveness in learning over graphs. To scale GNN training up for large-scale and ever-growing graphs, the most promising solution is distributed training which distributes the workload of training across multiple computing nodes. However, the workflows, computational patterns, communication patterns, and optimization techniques of distributed GNN training remain preliminarily understood. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of distributed GNN training by investigating various optimization techniques used in distributed GNN training. First, distributed GNN training is classified into several categories according to their workflows. In addition, their computational patterns and communication patterns, as well as the optimization techniques proposed by recent work are introduced. Second, the software frameworks and hardware platforms of distributed GNN training are also introduced for a deeper understanding. Third, distributed GNN training is compared with distributed training of deep neural networks, emphasizing the uniqueness of distributed GNN training. Finally, interesting issues and opportunities in this field are discussed.
Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely applied in various fields due to their significant power on processing graph-structured data. Typical GCN and its variants work under a homophily assumption (i.e., nodes with same class are prone to connect to each other), while ignoring the heterophily which exists in many real-world networks (i.e., nodes with different classes tend to form edges). Existing methods deal with heterophily by mainly aggregating higher-order neighborhoods or combing the immediate representations, which leads to noise and irrelevant information in the result. But these methods did not change the propagation mechanism which works under homophily assumption (that is a fundamental part of GCNs). This makes it difficult to distinguish the representation of nodes from different classes. To address this problem, in this paper we design a novel propagation mechanism, which can automatically change the propagation and aggregation process according to homophily or heterophily between node pairs. To adaptively learn the propagation process, we introduce two measurements of homophily degree between node pairs, which is learned based on topological and attribute information, respectively. Then we incorporate the learnable homophily degree into the graph convolution framework, which is trained in an end-to-end schema, enabling it to go beyond the assumption of homophily. More importantly, we theoretically prove that our model can constrain the similarity of representations between nodes according to their homophily degree. Experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that this new approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods under heterophily or low homophily, and gains competitive performance under homophily.
Visual recognition is currently one of the most important and active research areas in computer vision, pattern recognition, and even the general field of artificial intelligence. It has great fundamental importance and strong industrial needs. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have largely boosted their performances on many concrete tasks, with the help of large amounts of training data and new powerful computation resources. Though recognition accuracy is usually the first concern for new progresses, efficiency is actually rather important and sometimes critical for both academic research and industrial applications. Moreover, insightful views on the opportunities and challenges of efficiency are also highly required for the entire community. While general surveys on the efficiency issue of DNNs have been done from various perspectives, as far as we are aware, scarcely any of them focused on visual recognition systematically, and thus it is unclear which progresses are applicable to it and what else should be concerned. In this paper, we present the review of the recent advances with our suggestions on the new possible directions towards improving the efficiency of DNN-related visual recognition approaches. We investigate not only from the model but also the data point of view (which is not the case in existing surveys), and focus on three most studied data types (images, videos and points). This paper attempts to provide a systematic summary via a comprehensive survey which can serve as a valuable reference and inspire both researchers and practitioners who work on visual recognition problems.
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